NFL Over/Under Bets For Week 9: Value on low total in Washington?

It is Week 9 of the NFL Season, and the PFN betting team returns to give you their best bets and insights to make money this Sunday. In this article, I will find us some winning NFL over/under best bets for Week 9 by implementing my analytical model as well as some intuition. Be sure to bookmark the PFN betting team for all of our completely free content to help you cash in during the 2020 NFL season.

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NFL Week 9 Over/Under Best Bet: Washington Football Team vs. New York Giants over 41.5 -110

Yes, I know neither one of these teams are fun to watch, nor have they been lighting up scoreboards in 2020. However, at a total of 41.5 points, we do not need them to do much on offense for this bet to be successful. Kyle Allen had success against this Giants defense in this first meeting, completing 73.8% of his passes for 280 yards and two touchdowns. Daniel Jones and company looked solid against a very stout Buccaneers defense on Monday Night Football, and Jones’ affinity for the deep ball, as well as turnovers, should create enough splash plays to send this total over easily.

Washington Football Team controls their destiny

You read that right; the 2-5 Washington Football Team controls their destiny. While it may not correlate directly to this total, it highlights how much these teams are playing for despite their putrid records entering Week 9. Kyle Allen has been good, not great, since replacing Dwayne Haskins in Week 5, but this team has taken a conservative approach to offense and not allowed Allen to throw the ball downfield much, reflected in his average of 10 yards per pass completion. The run game has been a pleasant surprise for this offense with new running back Antonio Gibson, allowing them to play conservatively and still be competitive, thus helping this NFL over/under bet.

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However, I expect Ron Rivera and his staff to take the training wheels off Allen this week and allow him to push the ball down the field often in what shouldn’t be but is a pivotal divisional matchup. Washington’s best playmaker is second-year star Terry McLaurin, and his best asset is his speed and quickness, which allows him to beat defenders off the line and not allow them to catch up down the field. I expect to see a couple of shots taken down the field this weekend in an attempt to spark this offense and utilize their best players’ strengths.

Giants defense a sleeping giant?

What better time to open up the playbook for Allen than now for the Washington Football Team, facing a Giants defense that has struggled to contain anyone all year, allowing the fifth-most yards allowed through the air. Allen went for 280 yards in these teams’ first matchup and his second start, and I expect him to exceed this total this Sunday as he continues to get settled in as the starter on his new team. He will also be facing a Giants secondary that lacks talent and has been decimated by injuries, furthering my confidence in this Washington passing game and solidifying this total as my NFL over/under best bet for Week 9.

The Giants only have one shutdown corner in James Bradberry, who has had his own struggles but is solid nonetheless. The other starting cornerback is Ryan Lewis, who has been on five teams in five years, had his issues covering defenders and is not entirely healthy following a hamstring injury that leaves him questionable. No matter who lines up opposite Bradberry, expect them to be picked on ruthlessly, as this is the glaring weakness on this defense. With extra assets needed to help out whoever the Giants send out at the second cornerback position, expect the field to open up for playmakers McLaurin and Gibson.

The Washington defense is excellent in their own right and should exploit weaknesses along the Giants’ offensive line, but they are still a step below the Buccaneer defense. I expect a strip-sack fumble, maybe even a scoop and score, to help push this game over the low total. Daniel Jones gives, and he takes away, and his volatility is one of the main reasons I am placing this over/under bet for NFL Week 9; I expect this to continue this Sunday.

Turnovers continue to plague Giants offense

Daniel Jones has been ceaselessly critiqued over his turnover stats through his first year and a half in the league, with 34 turnovers over the past two seasons. Jones clearly has all of the physical abilities you could ask for in a quarterback, but when the pressure starts to come as it has early and often in his career, it’s like he completely forgets what he is supposed to do. Ultimately, I think Jones will be an excellent quarterback for many years in this league. His turnover issues are a cause of playing behind a lousy offensive line and trying to do too much for this team that lacks talent on both sides of the ball, especially this year with star running back Saquon Barkley lost for the season due to injury.

Related | NFL Spreads, Week 9: Point spreads and odds this week

This Giants offense has shown flashes of greatness even without Barkley, especially recently averaging 24.5 points over the past four weeks. The two-minute drive led by Jones against the strong Buccaneers defense last week was imposing, and I expect to see them build off this in Week 9 as they seem to be hitting their stride. Jones missed a couple of open throws deep, but I know these are throws he can make, and I expect to see him and speedster Darius Slayton more in sync and hit on at least one big pass play on Sunday.

NFL Week 9 Over/Under Best Bet: Washington Football Team vs. New York Giants over 41.5 -110

With the weather in the 70s and practically no wind in the forecast, look for these two below-average offenses to find their stride and send this total over the low number on Sunday. The model puts this total at 46.5, reaffirming my confidence in NFL over/under bet.

Follow Drew @DHaynesPFN and Pro Football Network @PFN365 on Twitter for all the best betting advice for the 2020 NFL season.