It is Week 13 of the NFL season, and the PFN betting team is prepared, as they are every week, to find you some winners to make you money this Sunday. This article will identify this week’s over/under best bets using analytics and some personal intuition. This process won us last week’s over/under and three of the previous four best bets. I will look to build on that momentum Sunday with a Week 13 over/under best bet winner.
NFL Odds Week 13 Over/Under Best Bet: New York Jets vs. Las Vegas Raiders O46.5 | -109
This game may not be on anyone’s must-watch list for Sunday. However, the analytical model thinks it presents a lot of value, with a projected total of 50.5. I tend to agree, as I believe this total is an overreaction to the horrible performance by the Raiders’ offense in Week 12.
There is also a general public disdain for this Jets team, and rightfully so. The Jets could only muster a single touchdown in last week’s matchup with the Dolphins. However, the offense had looked good in the prior two weeks since getting healthy. Expect them to round back into form Sunday despite some inept coaching.
Can Derek Carr bounce back?
The Raiders looked like a team that could be winless in last week’s beatdown by the 4-7 Falcons with a score of 43-6. However, they still have everything to play for at 6-5 and vying for a Wild Card spot. They have earned that primarily through a high-octane offense led by a rejuvenated Derek Carr, highlighted by a 7.6 yards per passing attempt.
This offense also has excellent balance, rushing for the ninth-most yards in the NFL. Yes, they will be missing bell-cow back Josh Jacobs in this one, and he will undoubtedly be missed. However, I believe that Devontae Booker is more than capable of shouldering the load with this stout Raiders offensive line that gets tackle Trent Brown back against the Jets porous run defense.
Overall, this Raiders offense has averaged 5.8 yards per play, eighth-best in the NFL. For these reasons, I am ready to write-off last week’s putrid performance offensive performance as an anomaly. Instead, I’ll give the Raiders offense a high rating based on their season-long outputs.
Carr has looked sharp this season, and he has delivered the ball consistently to his group of receivers that have exceeded expectations in 2020. I expect to see the accurate and efficient Carr we have seen for the majority of this season. Carr is in an excellent spot for a bounce-back week Sunday and is the main reason I made this my Week 13 NFL over/under best bet.
Jets defense rounding into form?
The Jets defense allowed just 20 points versus the Dolphins last week. However, much like the Raiders’ offense, I do not believe their week 12 performance to be utterly indicative of this unit’s ability. This Jets defense lacks pass rushers or real playmakers in the secondary following Jamal Adams’ departure in the offseason. They allow 6.1 yards per play, sixth-worst in the NFL; they have been exposed regardless of the aptitude of the opposing offenses.
The 49ers, Chargers, and Patriots all average fewer points per game than the Raiders. Yet all three were able to eclipse the 30 point mark against this Jets defense. Whether it’s through the air or on the ground, opposing offenses have found success against the Jets. I said this was a get-right game for this Raiders offense following a six-point effort against the Falcons. There isn’t a defense I’d want to see more than this Jets defense in a bounce-back game. Look for this Raiders offense to also go over the 30 point mark on Sunday.
Can this Jets offense get anything going to help us hit the NFL over under best bet of Week 13?
Yes, this Jets offense is in the cellar of nearly all offensive metrics. Last in points per game by a margin of 5.2 points is not inspiring anyone, nor is the coaching staff’s ineptitude. However, Week 9 was the first time we saw the Jets starting receiver duo of Breshard Perriman and Jamison Crowder healthy. That same week, the Jets put up 27 points against a solid Patriots defense. The next game, they had a 28 point outing against the Chargers. This offense is much more explosive with these two on the field.
Playoff hopes are long gone for this Jets team. However, guys like Perriman, Crowder, and quarterback Sam Darnold will spend the rest of the season trying to prove that they are capable NFL starters, whether with the Jets or another franchise.
Ultimately, I think this trio is excellent. They have simply been the victim of the injury bug and lousy coaching. Look for them to eclipse 20 points with ease Sunday against this Raiders defense that has had its own share of struggles. The risk that this Jets offense comes out and lays an egg is always there. This is one of my few concerns for my NFL Week 13 best bet, but it feels like the stars are aligned with the offense nearly fully healthy and a poor defense.
This Raiders defense continues to struggle
The Raiders defense is 32nd in points allowed per drive and 28th in total points against. They should turn it around against this bad Jets offense, shouldn’t they? I have my doubts. The defense has only gotten worse as the season has progressed, allowing 38.5 points per game over their last two. To make matters worse, they will be without one of their few playmakers in the secondary in Johnathan Abram and potentially starting corner Trayvon Mullen.
The Raiders’ inability to generate any pressure along the defensive line has been the real source of their problems. They are 31st in the league with just 12 sacks on the season. I feel strongly that even the hobbled Jets offensive line can keep this unit at bay. The lack of pass rush and injuries in the secondary is a bad recipe.
Look for this Jets offense to look like a capable NFL offense on Sunday. It may seem crazy to bet the over on a game between two teams that combined for nine points in Week 12. I choose to look at it as an opportunity to jump all over the value these offensive slip-ups have created. These are two of the four worst defenses in the NFL. Take this game to go over the modest total of 46.5.