Getting the best of the number is one of the critical components to beating the NFL odds market. Line movement before week one is unique in that these lines have been available for months. There has been essentially an eternity for bettors to shape the market leading up to week one. Today we’ll look at the most significant line moves and try to dissect value where we can.
Week 1 Line Movement
The NFL odds below are provided by Odds Shark (opening lines), Bovada (current lines), and the sharpest book on the web, Pinnacle.
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Largest Line Movements
A total of five games have shifted three points or more from the opening number. That sounds like a lot but isn’t surprising considering the amount of time these lines have been available. I’ll touch on each of the games below.
Ravens at Dolphins
The Baltimore Ravens opened as (-3.5) point favorites over the Miami Dolphins. The spread currently sits at (-7) on both Bovada and Pinnacle. According to the Action Network App, 85% of the bets and 95% of the money in the NFL odds market has come in on the Ravens.
The broad line movement is due to the Laremy Tunsil trade. The Dolphin’s offensive line was already projected to be one of the worst in the league, and now they will be without their clear top player on the unit. Sports Books are telling you that Tunsil is worth 3.5 points to the spread. Is that the case though? I can see the argument for it in the Dolphins case. For reference, here is how much certain quarterbacks affect the spread via Betonline’s Glen Macnow.
Here’s how much certain NFL QBs affect the weekly spread, per @betonline_ag:
Rodgers -7.5
Mahomes -7
R Wilson -7
Brady -7
Wentz -6.5
Rivers -6.5
Brees -6
Ben -5.5
Ryan -5
Goff -5
Newton -4
Prescott -4
Foles -2.5
Cousins -2.5
Mariota -1
Carr -1
Keenum 0
Eli +1— Glen Macnow (@RealGlenMacnow) September 3, 2019
That being said, I put a lot of emphases on trench play myself. Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to be under duress more often than not, which is a recipe for disaster considering his extremely volatile tendencies. While the Ravens lost a lot of defensive talent in the offseason, they still possess one of the best secondaries in the league. If it isn’t the secondary “recording” coverage sacks, it will be the front seven forcing Fitzpatrick into bad throws with pressure.
I understand the line movement and agree with the spread. The Florida humidity could level the playing field in the second half, which gives some intrigue to their second-half spread and money line. That said, I still wouldn’t be excited to bet it.
I don’t think the line movement created any value, so I’m staying away. Our top handicapper Chris Smith has already locked in a Kansas City Chiefs/Baltimore money line parlay for Sunday. I can’t say I hate it.
Colts at Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers opened as (-3.5) point favorites over the Indianapolis Colts. The spread currently sits at (-7) Bovada and (-6.5) Pinnacle. According to the Action Network App, 68% of the bets along with 61% of the money in the NFL odds market has come in on the Los Angeles Chargers.
This line movement is easy to explain. Andrew Luck retired and gave the Colts three extra points toward the spread. Is Luck worth 3, 3.5 points? Absolutely. Should the spread have been (3.5) to start? I don’t think so.
The Chargers have no home-field advantage. They were 7-1 on the road last year, compared to 5-3 at home. Their home field advantage is a joke. Visiting teams routinely invade the Coliseum, making playing at home a burden.
If you took Chargers (-3/3.5) already, you need to hop on the Colts (+6.5/7). That is as big a middle as you will find, and you are getting it at 20/1 odds. If you bet $110 to win $100 on the Chargers (-3) and $110 to win $100 on the Colts +7, the worst-case scenario is you lose $10. If the Chargers win by four, five or six, you profit $200. As I said, any other result leads to just a $10 loss.
As the line stands now, I think there is value in the Colts at (+6.5) or (+7). The Chargers offensive line is sneakily one of the worst in the league, and I can see the Colts using the Luck retirement as a rallying call to prove they are not as bad as everyone thinks.
Last but not least, the Coliseum has proven to be a neutral field. This spread is saying the gap between the Chargers and Colts is the same as the Redskins and Eagles, Bengals, and Seahawks. That isn’t the case. I like the Colts here catching six or more. If you do not own a Chargers (-3) ticket and have some trepidation, I get it. However, I still think there is value in this number.
Suggested Bet: Colts +6
Lions at Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals opened as (-2) point favorites over the Detroit Lions. The spread has shifted to the Lions (-2.5) on both Bovada and Pinnacle. According to the Action Network App, 78% of the bets and money in the NFL odds market has come in on the Lions.
The line movement seems to have shifted due to the poor preseason the Cardinals offense presented. It isn’t hard to see that Kliff Kingsbury showed absolutely nothing in the preseason. No one knows what this offense is going to bring every week. For the same reason I like the Green Bay Packers first-half spread against the Chicago Bears, I think you can take a similar approach with this game.
I would not touch the full game spread, because there is a significant edge for the Lions with their defensive line against the Cardinals offensive line. That said if you want to bet against the donkey that is Matt Patricia, I’m not going to fight you.
Broncos at Raiders
The Oakland Raiders opened as (-3) point favorites over the Denver Broncos. The spread currently sits at a PICK on both Bovada and Pinnacle. According to the Action Network App, 56% of the bets and 67% of the money in the NFL odds market has come in on the Broncos.
Oakland opening as a (-3) point favorite over anyone is ridiculous in my eyes, so I can see why bettors have bet it down to a PICK. That line is saying the Raiders and Broncos are even teams. I don’t agree with that sentiment.
Despite the signing of Trent Brown, I don’t foresee the Raiders being able to slow down the Broncos pass rush consistently. Tom Cable is the offensive line coach in Oakland, and he has a dubious track record. Vic Fangio is the top defensive mind in the league, so I expect Von Miller and Bradley Chubb to feast in this game.
The one worry I have when it comes to backing the Broncos is Joe Flacco. He has been one of the worst QB’s in the league since 2013, something I highlighted in my Broncos won total article a few weeks ago. If you’re taking the Broncos in this game, you’re doing it off the back of their defense, not Flacco.
I do like the under in this game. I don’t expect the Raiders to have very much success moving the ball on this Denver defense, while Flacco is Flacco. This game should probably be in the 30’s, yet currently sits at 43. Lock your Monday night action in now before the number gets worse.
Suggested Bet: Under 43
49ers at Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened as (-2) point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers. The spread currently sits at a PICK on Bovada and 49ers (-1) at Pinnacle. According to the Action Network App, 61% of the bets and 87% of the money in the NFL odds market has come in on the 49ers.
I think the original line was pretty much what the spread should’ve been, so I don’t agree with the line movement towards 49ers. The spread has shifted so that the value now lies with the Buccaneers. This line probably settles at 49ers (-1), so if you like the 49ers, I would grab them now, while you can hold out hope for a better number on the Buccaneers.
The side everyone is on is the over. According to the Action Network App, 69% of the bets and 93% of the money is on the over. It currently sits at 49.5 in most sportsbooks. For full transparency, I hopped on the over at 49.5 at My Bookie. However, I have some trepidation on that side. Nick Bosa and Dee Ford are both expected to play, which should be able to stall a good number of Tampa Bay’s drives.
On the other side, the Buccaneers defensive unit was the most injured in the league last year according to Football Outsiders adjusted games lost metric. They are all healthy now, with an excellent defensive coordinator in Todd Bowles. While the actual personnel isn’t very good, they should be better than they were last year. Ndamukong Suh also represents a high mismatch with the 49ers interior offensive line.
If you like the over, I would hop on now, as the number could increase. If you want the under you can probably wait until Sunday morning as I don’t foresee bettors taking the under in this game. If I didn’t already have the over, I would stay away from it myself.
James Aguirre is a writer for PFN covering NFL betting and Fantasy Football. You can follow him on Twitter @PFN_James.
