The first week of the NFL season is officially in the books, and what an event it was. The Baltimore Ravens shocked the world with an impressive victory over the Miami Dolphins. The Cleveland Browns once again did what they have done for years and let their fans down. There were key injuries, there were shocking upsets, and week one has now come to a close. Some were able to follow the herd of the public and win some money, while others broke away with the sharps and cashed tickets. Let’s find out how the handicapping team at Pro Football Network did during one of the most volatile weeks of the NFL season.
NFL Odds: The PFN rundown
The team behind the gambling section of the All-Access Pass gave all of our readers a free week of gambling content. That being said, had you bet all of our plays (depending on your unit size and the odds you got) you would have already been able to pay off a yearly subscription with your winnings.
Ben Rolfe: Totals Expert
Ben was the most profitable capper of the team, with a solid 4-1 record. In his weekly over/under series, Ben gave us some solid tips as to why the under could be a good play for the opening weekend. Like he said in his article,
“The important aspect for this week is holding penalties. There has been a number of these penalties during this preseason. The emphasis seems to have been placed on these calls right now in the NFL. Holding penalties are a major killer of drives. If this is the hot penalty this season, it could lead to a wave of low scoring.”
Ben hit under the totals in the New England, San Francisco, and Green Bay games. Our totals expert gave out nearly two units of profit.
Jason Sarney: The Prop Master
Jason’s prop market plays were more unpredictable than the rest of our plays due to the market volatility. This came into full effect for one of his plays when starting quarterback Nick Foles was injured and left the Jacksonville game. Unfortunately, the recipient of most of Foles looks, Dede Westbrook, could not recapture his connection with rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew. Jason still managed a respectable 2-3 record in the prop department.
~ Calvin Ridley over 41.5 receiving yards
~ Dede westbrooks over 50.5 receiving yards
~ Nick Foles over 239.5 passing yards
~ Kyler Murray over 31.5 rushing yards
~ Justin Jackson over 51.5 rushing yards
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 8, 2019
Chris Smith: Handicapping Specialist
Our official Pro Football Network handicapper gave out four plays this week. He finished with a 2-2 record. Chris gives out specific amounts that he bets on each game depending on the NFL odds and juice. Following his amounts as stated in his weekly article, this is a little less than a unit of profit. His Tommy Teaser was as easy as they come with the Eagles -3 and the Panthers +9. Okay, maybe the Eagles gave us quite a scare in the first half but we all knew they’d come back.
The actual easiest win on the card was the Patty Parlay Moneyline of the Ravens and Chiefs at plus NFL odds. Had you played this, you could have sat back and enjoyed as both teams threw up and down on their opponents. The win was never in doubt.
To top it off, Chris gave out a “Shot in the Dark” parlay of seven money line games and two against the spread, the only one he missed was the Falcons. He also gave a survivor winner with the Seahawks!
James Aguirre: The Volatility Expert
James is a low volume kind of gambler. This week he made two plays, and one finished as a push with the Colts +6. Depending on where you got the line that could easily have been a win! He came through clutch with an under in the last game of the week for a 1-0-1 record.
All said and done, the PFN gambling team are happy to have brought in a little over two units of profit in our first week of action!
The sheep and the herd
A sportsbook will always find ways to make money. Sometimes, however, the sharps and the public will combine together to take a big chunk of those profits away. That was the case this week thanks to the performance of the Baltimore Ravens. As mentioned in the inaugural edition of the Sheep Report, 94% of the money and 84% of the bets were on the Ravens to beat Miami. That is exactly what happened when Lamar Jackson‘s offense exploded for 59 points. If you followed the herd and the sharps you made money!
However, we saw this week that the sharps are not always on the right side. The Dallas Cowboys have long been known as one of the most publicly backed teams in football. This is often reflected in their NFL odds. This week they received over 50% of the bets, but only 33% of the money. A lot of us casual gamblers put money on America’s team while the sharps broke away from the herd. Well, this time the herd won as the Cowboys easily covered the -7 against the Giants.
Another notable sharp side that lost was the Jacksonville Jaguars. The sharps brought this line down from +5 to +3, and they pounded the under from 52.5 to 50. Everyone knows the public likes to bet favorites and the over. In this game, the herd was on the right side as they cashed both those bets!
Week 2 early herd action
New England (-17.5) 94% of the money, 90% of the bets
The sharps and the public have already come together for another play this upcoming week. The New England Patriots have been bet up from the opening number of -11 to -17.5 against Miami. The Patriots will most likely have Antonio Brown for this game, and they looked impressive in their win against Pittsburgh. The public seems to think the Dolphins have decided to actually tank this season. The herd is full of sharps and squares, let’s all join together and lay our units on the Patriots.
Kansas City (-9.5) 96% of the money, 77% of the bets
Kansas City will be heading to Oakland as nearly 10 point favorites next week. So far, the number has been bet up from -7 when it opened. Sharps and the public are both laying the wood with big favorites for the upcoming week. This is a complete stay away for me, I won’t join the heard, but I won’t try to lead it either!
The sharps breakaway
New York Giants (+2) 31% of the money, 54% of the bets
After their week one win against the Jets, Buffalo is now favored on the road in New York. The sharps like Buffalo, with nearly 70% of the money on them but only 46% of the bets. They are driving this spread up, expecting their defense to be able to stifle Eli Manning and Saquon Barkley. I cannot agree with the sharps. I will join the herd of the 54% betting on the Giants and take them with the points. New York looked good against the Cowboys at times, and I don’t think this Buffalo offense will be able to score as many points as Dallas. Wait for the sharps to bet this number to a field goal and then take the Giants.
It is a long and difficult season in the world of NFL odds and betting. We will take positive weeks when they come. The PFN gambling crew will continue to put in the work to make sure our readers make money!
For more gambling information make sure to listen to the Against the Spread podcast each week as we break down the games and their current NFL odds.
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Don’t forget, whether the leader of the herd or venturing off the broken path, check out PFN for all the information you’ll need to win money!