Injuries and bye weeks continue to cause lineup issues, forcing fantasy football managers to face even further difficult lineup decisions. Let’s take a look at our Week 14 RB start ’em and sit ’em plays.
Week 14 Start ‘Em: Running Backs
We are entering the final week of the fantasy football regular season. The stakes are higher, and every decision feels like it will make or break your season. As always, Pro Football Network will do its best to steer you in the right direction. Let’s get into this week’s start ’em and sit ’em plays at the running back position.
Start ‘Em | AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers (vs. CHI)
Prior to the Packers’ Week 13 bye, Aaron Jones returned from a minor MCL sprain. He played 49% of the snaps. Jones carried the ball 10 times for 23 yards and didn’t catch his lone target.
Most fantasy managers will correctly attribute his diminished usage to the Packers not wanting to overwork him coming off the injury and in front of the bye. What I’m not sure most fantasy managers realize is that AJ Dillon is the primary runner in this backfield. Jones may still out-snap Dillon, but I expect Dillon to be the more valuable fantasy back going forward.
The Bears are middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to running backs. More importantly, they’re two-score underdogs in Green Bay. If game script goes as expected, the Packers will be nursing a second-half lead, and they’ll be doing so with a heavy dose of Dillon.
This is a bit of speculating on my part, so take this advice with however many grains of salt you desire, but I think Dillon will be the goal-line back going forward. If he’s the guy milking the clock and the guy scoring touchdowns, he is going to be a lot more valuable than where most fantasy ranking services currently have him.
Start ‘Em | Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. LV)
In the interest of full transparency, this spot was supposed to be Mark Ingram, but he tested positive for COVID on Wednesday. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is my backup start ’em, so take that for what it’s worth.
I do legitimately like CEH this week, though. Although he’s playing only half the snaps in a split with Darrel Williams, Edwards-Helaire is dominating the touches. He had 14 opportunities in Week 11 and 17 in Week 13. Williams had just 8 opportunities in both of those games.
Edwards-Helaire has a nice matchup this week against the Raiders. They allow the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. Las Vegas also invites pass attempts to the running back position. Raiders’ opponents target the running back 21.6% of the time. The ast time these teams met, CEH was out, and Williams caught all 9 of his targets for 101 yards and a touchdown.
The Chiefs should be able to score plenty of points in this one. They scored a season-high 41 points back in Week 10 against the Raiders. Given CEH’s status as the lead back and the Raiders’ vulnerability to running backs in the passing game, I like CEH to push for RB1 numbers this week.
Week 14 Sit ‘Em: Running Backs
One running back has a decent matchup, but I’d recommend staying away. These running backs should be left on your bench in Week 14.
Sit ‘Em | Tevin Coleman, New York Jets (vs. NO)
No team allows fewer fantasy points per game to running backs than the Saints. Tevin Coleman has operated as the Jets’ lead back since Michael Carter went down. However, Coleman has been far from a feature back.
He played just 39% of the snaps last week and 45% the week before. Although he saw 15 opportunities in Week 13 and 19 in Week 12, Coleman’s not catching enough passes nor scoring enough touchdowns (zero on the year) to be viable in fantasy.
The Saints have allowed just 10 rushing touchdowns this season and lead all defenses in opponents’ yards per carry at a paltry 3.6. We cannot confidently project Coleman to be efficient or to score his first touchdown of the season. Fantasy managers are likely looking at no more than 5-8 fantasy points. Sit Coleman this week.
I would be remiss not to mention that Coleman is currently in the concussion protocol. If he cannot get cleared, Ty Johnson and Austin Walter would form a committee. Both of them would be sits for me as well.
Sit ‘Em | Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons (@ CAR)
Last week, while on fantasy benches, Mike Davis posted 16.9 PPR fantasy points. He finished as the RB17 on the week. Fantasy managers who finally gave up on Davis only to see him have a very strong game are likely perturbed and tempted to chase the points. Don’t.
In the four weeks prior to Week 13, Davis scored 16.8 fantasy points combined. His highest snap share over that span was still lower than his lowest snap share over the first eight weeks of the season.
In fact, there was no tangible difference between what Davis did last week and any of the previous four weeks. He just scored a touchdown. That’s it. Davis’ opportunities over the past month: 8, 9, 7, 5. He is still playing behind Cordarrelle Patterson and ceding a handful of snaps to Qadree Ollison.
This week, Davis would be a fade regardless of matchup because the volume still isn’t there. The fact that the Falcons are playing the Panthers just makes it easier to sit him. Carolina allows the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The bad matchup combined with his continued lack of usage makes Davis better left on fantasy benches this week.