Bye weeks continue to wreak havoc on lineups, forcing fantasy football managers to face even further difficult lineup decisions. Let’s take a look at our Week 10 RB start ’em and sit ’em plays.
Week 10 Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: Running Backs
We are now officially in the back half of the fantasy regular season. The stakes are higher, and every decision feels like it will make or break your season. As always, Pro Football Network will do its best to steer you in the right direction. Let’s get into this week’s start ’em and sit ’em plays at the running back position for Week 10.
Start ‘Em | J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team (@ TB)
This is the week the J.D. McKissic even-numbered-week theory really gets put to the test. Is it really even-numbered weeks…or is it every other week, which is now thrown off-kilter by the bye week? I cannot say. Who knows such things? Only the Oracle.
McKissic has scored at least 16.9 PPR fantasy points every even-numbered week and finished no worse than weekly RB15. Of course, there are legitimate reasons to start him this week.
Since Week 1, McKissic has been part of Washington’s game plan. Recently, though, he’s been seeing increased usage. McKissic played 45%, 58%, and 60% of the offensive snaps over his last three games. He’d been mostly in the mid-to-low 40s.
Additionally, the matchup screams McKissic week. The Football Team are 10-point underdogs in Tampa Bay. The Bucs remain an elite run-stopping unit but a pass-funnel defense. Taylor Heinicke will have to throw with the team playing catch-up, which keeps McKissic on the field ahead of Antonio Gibson. Washington targets their running backs 24.5% of the time. I’m expecting a heavy target share for McKissic, giving him a strong PPR floor. He’s at least a low RB2 this week.
Start ‘Em | AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers (vs. SEA)
We’ve already gotten reports Aaron Rodgers expects to be activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list on Saturday. That makes me think he’s already testing negative and is just waiting out the mandatory 10-day quarantine period.
Rodgers’ return means the Packers are at far less risk of experiencing a negative game script. If the past two weeks are any indication, the team is moving more toward AJ Dillon as their lead runner. Aaron Jones still plays on most passing downs, but Dillon is seeing significantly more usage than earlier in the season. It doesn’t feel like the fantasy community has yet accepted this reality.
[the_ad_group id=”61550″]
Dillon is already a weekly RB3/flex option. The only reason he’s not a weekly RB2 is because Jones still seems to be the goal-line back. However, Dillon profiles better for that role. Last week, with Jordan Love at quarterback, we didn’t really get to see what the Packers would do. With Rodgers back, there will likely be goal-line opportunities. I think Dillon will at least get some chances, if not just be the guy altogether.
The Seahawks allow the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. They also surrender 24.4% of receiving yards to running backs. I know I said Jones is the preferred passing-down back, but Dillon had 4 receptions on 4 targets last week while Jones had 0 catches on 2 targets. What I’m trying to say here is this is a truly split backfield, but Jones is being viewed as an RB1 while Dillon is just an RB3. The reality is both are more like RB2s, and Dillon should be in fantasy lineups.
Week 10 Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: Running Backs
One matchup this week looks juicy, but I’d recommend staying away. These running backs should be left on your bench in Week 10.
Sit ‘Em | Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (@ TB)
It’s rare one running back from a backfield will be a must-start while the other is a must-sit. Yet, here we are. In Weeks 1 and 2, Gibson played over 60% of the snaps. Over the next three weeks, he was more in the mid-50s. Over the last three weeks, his highest single-game snap share is 42%.
I feel confident attributing Gibson’s decreased usage to his shin injury. While that gives me confidence he’s still a great player when healthy, the fact remains he’s not healthy. Perhaps the bye week rejuvenated him a bit, but it feels like Gibson is on borrowed time before an inevitable shutdown.
McKissic has been outplaying him, and the game script keeps calling for McKissic to be on the field. I won’t rehash the points in favor of McKissic above. All the reasons I love McKissic are why I don’t like Gibson.
The Bucs’ elite run defense makes Gibson unlikely to get anything going on the ground. I’m expecting 8-10 carries for 30-40 yards at best. He will need to fall into the end zone to be worth starting. Against the Bucs on the road, that’s just not something fantasy managers should bank on. Sit Gibson this week.
Sit ‘Em | Adrian Peterson, Tennessee Titans (vs. NO)
Week 9 gave us a good glimpse at what to expect from Adrian Peterson. At 87 years of age, the explosiveness is completely gone. All he can do is run forward. He tries his patented foot-in-ground, cut-the-other-way move, but the burst is no longer there. He’s just 3 yards and a cloud of dust (emphasis on dust).
The Titans certainly have use for Peterson. He will probably be the primary goal-line back, which keeps him fantasy-relevant. However, fantasy managers should not expect much in the way of rushing yards or receptions.
Peterson played 33% of the snaps last week. He carried the ball 10 times for 21 yards and caught 1 pass for 5 yards. He fell into the end zone late in the game, but he still failed to reach double-digit fantasy points. D’Onta Foreman looked far more dynamic, and Jeremy McNichols is clearly the passing-down back.
Against the Saints, AP will once again be staring down the barrel of an elite run-stopping unit. He will need to score even to reach RB3 value. The Saints allow under 75 rushing yards per game, and Peterson is part of a three-way timeshare. In favorable matchups, Peterson will be useful, but sit him this week.
