The 2021 fantasy football playoffs roll on, and it’s another make-or-break week. Making correct lineup decisions is literally make or break as we enter the win-or-go-home portion of the season. Let’s take a look at the top start ’em and sit ’em plays for Week 16.
NFL Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em for Week 16: Quarterbacks
As the fantasy football playoffs continue, which quarterbacks are starts and sits in Week 16?
Start ‘Em | Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (@ NO)
Please don’t get discouraged if you started Tua Tagovailoa last week. First off, 15 fantasy points isn’t that bad. The problem was the low passing volume (just 27 attempts) and the 2 interceptions. Still, he threw 2 touchdowns.
This week, Tua gets the Saints’ pass-funnel defense. Yes, they shut out Tom Brady last week, but I think we can chalk that up to a bit of an anomaly. They still allow the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The way to beat them is through the air. The Dolphins get Jaylen Waddle back, and DeVante Paker is playing well. Start Tua.
Sit ‘Em | Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. DEN)
I’ve just about had it with Derek Carr. I recommended him two weeks in a row during the past month, and he responded by posting consecutive duds. The matchup doesn’t matter, Carr just doesn’t produce. Over his past five starts, Carr has finished QB20 overall or worse in four of them.
The last time these teams met, Carr finished as the QB11. He threw for 341 yards and 2 touchdowns. The problem is that stat line was a bit of a fluke. Carr attempted a season-low 27 passes but was extremely efficient. Meanwhile, the Broncos allow the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, and Darren Waller is once again not going to play. Sit Carr.
Running Backs
The running back position can be quite matchup-dependent. Which running backs should fantasy managers start, and who is better left on the bench this week?
Start ‘Em | Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers (@ HOU)
On Monday, Austin Ekeler reportedly tested positive for COVID-19. There was some uncertainty regarding whether that was legitimate. Then, on Wednesday, the Chargers formally placed Ekeler on the reserve/COVID-19 list. He is almost certainly not going to be able to play Sunday.
Enter Justin Jackson. Ekeler’s talented backup will operate as the lead back against a Texans defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs.
Last week, Jackson led the Chargers’ backfield with 54% of the snaps because Ekeler was limited due to a sprained ankle. Jackson carried the ball 13 times for 86 yards and caught 1 pass for 13 yards. He played well ahead of Joshua Kelley and will be the lead back if Ekeler cannot get cleared.
Jackson also has a history of being used in the passing game. Last season, from Weeks 5-8 (three games), Jackson saw at least 5 targets in each game and caught 5 passes in two. The matchup is great, and Jackson is talented enough to take advantage of it. Start him as long as Ekeler is out.
Sit ‘Em | Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. BAL)
Joe Mixon finally lived up to expectations this season … mostly. But over the past three weeks, he has been a disappointment. In fact, recommending him as a sit may be falling on deaf ears as most of his managers are likely eliminated at this point. Mixon has averaged 8.4 PPR points per game over his past three games.
Additionally, the matchup is awful. The Ravens allow the 10th-fewest fantasy points to running backs. When these teams last met, Mixon carried the ball 12 times for 59 yards and a touchdown. He managed just 11.9 fantasy points in a game the Bengals won 41-14.
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Furthermore, Mixon is no longer being used in the passing game. Outside of Week 12, his highest target share since Week 10 is just 5%. Samaje Perine has completely taken over that role.
Mixon will need to either be efficient on the ground or find the end zone to produce. Neither is likely against the Ravens. If you made it this far with Mixon, you probably don’t have a better option but expect him to have another down week.
NFL Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em for Week 16: Wide Receivers
Fantasy managers often struggle with which player to insert into that final WR3 or flex spot. Hopefully, these start ’em and sit ’em plays will help.
Start ‘Em | Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr., Los Angeles Rams (@ MIN)
Neither Van Jefferson nor Odell Beckham Jr. did much of anything last week. It was the Cooper Kupp show. Jefferson caught both of his targets for 23 yards. Beckham had just 1 reception on his 3 targets.
This week, expect both Jefferson and Beckham to get more involved. The Vikings allow the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They won’t be able to stop Kupp, but you have to think they’ll at least try to bracket him. Regardless, all three Rams wide receivers should produce this week. The NFL owes us a good old-fashioned shootout, and I think we get it.
Sit ‘Em |Â Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. DEN)
Hunter Renfrow is coming off his worst game of the season. He caught 3 of 5 targets for 32 yards and scored a season-low 6.2 PPR fantasy points. This may feel like reverse point chasing, but there’s a method to the madness.
Prior to last week, Renfrow’s worst performance of the season came back in Week 6 against these very same Broncos. He had a near-identical game to last week, catching 3 of his 5 targets for 36 yards.
The Broncos allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Derek Carr seemed to develop a nice rapport with Zay Jones last week, and it’s entirely possible that carries over into this week.
Either way, the Broncos like to play slow-paced, low-scoring games. Carr is playing subpar football as of late. They could go back to Renfrow after last week’s dud, but I’m not banking on it.
Tight Ends
The tight end position is a disaster in fantasy football. With seldom few reliable options, can we find start ’em-worthy TEs?
Start ‘Em | Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (@ SEA)
Any tight end with a pulse is worth starting, but I’ll throw some love Cole Kmet’s way. Kmet is coming off a very respectable 6-71 line on 9 targets. The Seahawks allow the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Kmet has a solid target floor and has proven capable of producing without a touchdown. He’s worth a stab this week.
