Brad Kelly’s 2020 NFL Draft quarterback rankings

The 2020 quarterback class saw a shift at the top during the college football season, as LSU’s Joe Burrow went from possible late-round selection to the favorite for the first overall pick. Burrow’s ascension boosts a group that was already going to be a strong one, and it’s entirely possible that we see four quarterbacks selected near the top of the draft. Here are my full QB rankings for the 2020 NFL Draft, broken up by round grade based on their tape study, traits projection, and potential at the NFL level.

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First-round grades (Top-12)

1. Joe Burrow, LSU
After a season in which he threw for 60 touchdowns on over 76% completion, Joe Burrow is the favorite to be the top overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft. Burrow is accurate at all three levels, mobile both inside and out of the pocket, has a tight release, and correctly identifies overages or mismatches.

This Joe Burrow escape and throw on the move is still so ridiculous pic.twitter.com/gxDAPlkfa2

— Brad Kelly (@BradKelly17) January 15, 2020

The only real knock on him as a prospect is his advanced age and that his arm strength isn’t quite elite. None of that is enough to cause concern about his NFL projection, as he compares well to quarterbacks such as Matt Ryan or Tony Romo.

2. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
If not for injuries, Tua Tagovailoa would likely be in contention for the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Tagovailoa declared after his true junior season after producing at a high level as a starter (76 touchdowns over his past 24 games). He’s mobile, excelling at throwing outside of the pocket, and places excellent touch on the ball in order to layer his trajectory. Tagovailoa has the necessary arm strength to throw through tight windows, but will occasionally misplace the ball or force it in those situations.

The medical reports will be a cause for concern, as well as his limited stature at just 6’0. Regardless, Tagovailoa projects to a pro bowl level starting quarterback in the NFL if he’s able to regain his pre-injury strength.

First-round grades (Top-24)

3. Jordan Love, Utah State
Jordan Love went through a regression in production between his junior and senior season after losing his coaching staff and nine offensive starters. His less than ideal surroundings are a good explanation for his statistical regression, as Love was “pressing” for most of the season.

Love is one of the more talented QB prospects to declare for the NFL Draft in recent memory, as his athleticism and arm talent create some splash plays that look like Patrick Mahomes highlights. Love’s velocity, deep accuracy, and strength regardless of throwing platform make him an exciting prospect, but he’ll need a season to develop and re-learn proper decision making with the ball. Consider his ceiling at pro bowl level, but his variance as a prospect is higher than others.

Jordan Love with an off-platform, over the shoulder dime against arguably the best secondary in CFB. Love can make plays outside of the pocket #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/pErXuMBUBD

— Brad Kelly (@BradKelly17) March 19, 2020

Second-round grades

4. Justin Herbert, Oregon
Justin Herbert has a strong baseline as a prospect, and it’s difficult to envision him struggling over the course of an entire season. He has starter-level accuracy, arm strength, and physical tools. However, Herbert becomes too cautious with the ball and can be unsure how to process and maneuver zone droppers. While he’ll be a full-time starter, his potential isn’t as high as Love’s and it’s difficult to project him truly elevating a roster to Super Bowl-caliber.

Justin Herbert drops in it the bucket from 55 yards out #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/Fi9orCAUiH

— Brad Kelly (@BradKelly17) March 4, 2020

Third-round grades

5. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma
Jalen Hurts has the physical makeup and intangibles necessary to lead a franchise over the course of his career. He’s developed as a passer over his time in college and has shown NFL level accuracy for the past two seasons.

Jalen Hurts best throw of the season:

• Unaccounted for LB blitzing the “A” gap
• Single-high safety MOF, Hurts alerts to fade ball
• WR hasn’t cleared the CB vertically when Hurts releases, puts it on his back shoulder pic.twitter.com/YOQsAun4vx

— Brad Kelly (@BradKelly17) August 8, 2019

Hurts will be a strong running option, keep the ball out of harm’s way, and throw with proper ball placement. However, he’s not a natural fit in a pro-style offense, he doesn’t have an exceptional arm, and he can struggle to get the ball out on time. Quarterback is a position that requires premium payment, which means Hurts should be an option just outside of the top-50 picks.

6. Jake Fromm, Georgia
Jake Fromm, similar to Hurts, has all of the maturity and intangibles needed to be the face of an NFL franchise. Fromm is a natural processor behind center who understands schemes at a high level. With accuracy on short throws, he consistently keeps his offense on schedule. Fromm’s deep passes can flutter, and he’ll miss on a lot of throws that require him to drive the ball. Due to that, his ceiling is capped and he’s unlikely to ever ascend into all-pro status.

7. Jacob Eason, Washington
Jacob Eason showed off his pure arm talent during his lone season as Washington’s starter but failed to develop his game in other areas. When he’s uninterrupted, he’s an accurate rhythm passer with the ability to beat coverage with elite arm strength or touch.

Eason will struggle when he’s pressured, both from a footwork and processing standpoint. In the NFL, that’s a cause for concern that could prevent him from becoming a full-time starter. The upside is there, but he needs time behind a veteran.

Early third day grades

8. Cole McDonald, Hawaii
Cole McDonald’s evaluation will leave you on the edge of your seat, for better or for worse. McDonald isn’t afraid to take risks with the football but has the arm strength to drive the ball or drop it in the bucket while doing so. He’s a plus athlete for the position, will make tight-window throws and create outside of the pocket.

Rippin’ in rhythm pic.twitter.com/fWyGbyRWnk

— Brad Kelly (@BradKelly17) December 25, 2019

Hawaii’s offense had limited variance in formation and McDonald’s responsibilities, his footwork, and release are far too inconsistent. McDonald needs experience under center and time to tighten his throwing motion, but he’s immediately a high upside backup who has the spark to win football games. He’s the wild card at the position in the 2020 NFL Draft.

9. Anthony Gordon, Washington State
Anthony Gordon has a well-documented story, as there were four years in between starts from junior college to his redshirt senior year. All he did in his lone season as a starter was pass for over 5,500 yards and 48 touchdowns on over 71% completion while earning a Senior Bowl invite.

Gordon’s mechanics leave something to be desired, and he’s undoubtedly a bit of a gunslinger. There are starter traits within him, but he needs to be corralled a bit and take reps in a pro system before that could ever come to fruition. 

Mid third day grades

10. Bryce Perkins, Virginia
Over the past two seasons, Bryce Perkins has become known for making splash plays both with his arm and as a runner. He accounted for 67 touchdowns over that span, showing a unique combination of elusiveness and arm strength. Perkins has inconsistent accuracy and a strong amount of his production came from quick-hitting throws. Perkins’ upside is that of a strong backup or spot-starter, with the potential to be a full-time starter for a season or two over his career.

11. Jake Luton, Oregon State
Jake Luton originally committed to Idaho before transferring and waiting his turn at Oregon State. The result in his first full season as a starter in 2019 was a touchdown-interception ratio of 28:3.

Luton has the stature of an NFL quarterback at 6’6″ and 224 pounds, and rarely allows the defense to make plays on the ball. There is an interesting combination of splash throws and plays where his velocity suffers, making it difficult to value his arm talent. He’s a technically sound and mobile player for the position, but lacks experience and has just a modest ceiling.

12. Steven Montez, Colorado
Steven Montez has had consistent production throughout his collegiate career, one that included 45 appearances and over 9,700 passing yards. However, Montez can be erratic with his mechanics, throwing touch and overall decision-making, leaving production on the field. He has the size and arm talent of an NFL starter, but his process will relegate him to backup duties with the potential for an occasional in-game appearance.

13. Tyler Huntley, Utah
Tyler Huntley’s return from injury and development was the spark that Utah’s offenses needed to take the next step, and he showed potential NFL traits in the process. He’s dynamic with his legs, either evading pressure or moving within the pocket. He’s generally accurate within 20 yards and refuses to give defenses legitimate opportunities to take the ball away.

Huntley is limited in his progression, has the habit to drop his eyes and fails to marry his mechanics with route timing. He’s a QB2 in the right offensive system but should be a talent for multiple years.

14. James Morgan, Florida International
After three unproductive years at Bowling Green State, James Morgan took his talents to South Beach for his final two seasons of college. Morgan’s best season came in 2018, but he was the QB darling of the East-West Shrine practices. He’s a prototypical pocket passer who will maneuver rush lanes and deliver in the face of pressure. There are “wow” throws on his film, but he’s slow to pull the trigger at times and isn’t the most gifted in terms of accuracy. Morgan is a rosterable quarterback in a pro system as a later round developmental piece.

Late third day grades

15. Nate Stanley, Iowa
While Nate Stanley appeared to have NFL traits when he became Iowa’s starter in 2017, he regressed throughout his collegiate career. His accuracy is far too inconsistent, and he failed to elevate offenses that had the likes of T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant. His production dropped during his senior season down to just 16 passing touchdowns on 399 attempts, due to his lack of process, mobility and ball placement.

Undrafted free agents

16. Brian Lewerke, Michigan State

17. Shea Patterson, Michigan

18. Kelly Bryant, Missouri

19. Kurt Rawlings, Yale

20. Tommy Stevens, Mississippi State