Daily fantasy football is a great way to get that fantasy fix in the NFL playoffs. With just four weeks of football remaining, our time is limited. Fortunately, we have three separate days of football this week to get our fill. Let’s take a look at the DraftKings Sunday NFL DFS slate and the fantasy outlook for Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Travis Kelce.
NFL DFS Picks: Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Travis Kelce
Of these three Kansas City Chiefs pass catchers, who has the highest upside in DFS formats for Wild Card Weekend? Let’s dive in.
Tyreek Hill ($7,300)
Hill is the second-most-expensive wide receiver on the Sunday DFS slate. Despite Hill’s recent underperformance, I would expect him and Patrick Mahomes ($7,300) to be a popular stack against the hapless Steelers. As a result, I’m here to tell you why you should fade the Mahomes-Hill stack.
Never be contrarian just for the sake of being contrarian. Definitely be contrarian when there’s a logical pivot and reason to doubt how prolific the seemingly obvious stack is.
I’ve said before I don’t like being the guy that removes a player’s best game to try and paint a picture of his struggles. So, I won’t. I am including Hill’s 32.8 PPR fantasy points in Week 15 in the following calculation, but excluding Week 18 where Hill hurt his heel in pregame warmups. Over his final five games of the fantasy season, Hill averaged 10.5 PPR ppg.
Fantasy managers still have this image of him as an elite fantasy asset, but he hasn’t been one in a little while. Add in the Chiefs being the biggest Wild Card favorite in NFL history and the Steelers allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs, and we have a recipe for the Chiefs going run-heavy, controlling the game on the ground, and not really needing a banged-up Hill. I would not use Hill in Sunday DFS lineups.
Mecole Hardman ($4,100)
Hardman had a huge game in Week 18 with Hill barely seeing the field. He caught 8 of 11 targets for 103 yards. Although I’m mostly fading Hill this week, I certainly am not getting behind Hardman. Prior to Week 18, Hardman had scored single-digit fantasy points in nine of his last 11 games. His season snap share was just 53%.
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Hardman basically operates like a Hill backup. If Hill is out, Hardman will play. Despite me not liking Hill a ton this week, he’ll be on the field. As a result, I prefer Byron Pringle ($3,900) to Hardman if taking a shot on a Chiefs wide receiver. In general, though, I prefer to attack this game by going with the running game and Darrel Williams ($5,200).
Travis Kelce ($6,700)
As the most expensive tight end on the Sunday DFS slate, Kelce is an easy fade for me. We saw him pop off for 41.1 PPR fantasy points in Week 15. That upside always exists. If something like that happens and Kelce isn’t in your lineup, you lose. That’s just the risk you take when going against the grain.
Regardless, as I stated above, I prefer the Chiefs’ running game in this one. The Sunday slate has a ton of good tight ends. Rob Gronkowski ($6,400), George Kittle ($5,800), and Dallas Goedert ($4,400) all present better value — especially Goedert.
Kelce missed the Chiefs’ previous game against the Steelers due to COVID-19, so we don’t have the luxury of a game’s worth of stats for him. Although he isn’t your typical tight end, it is still worth noting that the Steelers allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Fading the Chiefs’ passing game may certainly come back to bite me, but there are quality lineups you can make without using Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce. The combination of contrarianism and upside makes doing so worth it.
