With season-long fantasy football leagues behind us, managers transition to DFS as the NFL playoffs roll on. After watching the first six games, the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams are set for one final game, leaving us with one remaining game to come out on top of our DFS tournaments. As they take on a talented Rams defense, how should Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, and Antoine Wesley be valued in DFS?
Christian Kirk is an intriguing DFS option
After losing DeAndre Hopkins to a torn MCL, the Cardinals were forced to reshape their passing hierarchy. The primary target for Kyler Murray — who became the fourth QB ever to start their career with three straight seasons of 20+ passing TDs and 3,500+ passing yards — has been Zach Ertz. Ertz has led the team in targets (43) and receptions (28) with 352 yards. His 30.25% of the air yards are also a team high.
Kirk ($5,300) has been the No. 1 option on the perimeter. With Hopkins out, Kirk is second on the team in targets (32) and receptions (24) but leads the team in yards (264). He is also No. 1 in routes ran at 175, playing 85% or more of the snaps in every game.
The issue is the matchup, as will be the trend for all Cardinals receivers. The Rams are legit on defense. We all know that. In the two games this season against the Rams, Kirk was held to 5 yards on 1 catch (Week 4) and then 3 catches on 6 targets for 83 yards in a scoreless effort in Week 14. It’s also worth noting Hopkins played in both of those games.
Of Arizona’s WRs, I lean to Kirk in DFS. He’s seen an 18% target share and 29% air yards share over the last four weeks. And of the possible matchups, lining up against Dont’e Deayon in the slot is the best one. However, even he allows just a 64% reception percentage when targeted. With 12+ points in four of his last five games, Kirk is the most intriguing option for DFS.
Is A.J. Green worth the price in DFS for the Wild Card round?
Since Hopkins was injured, Green ($4,900) has seen a spike in usage. In those four games, Green has 26 targets, 12 receptions, and 194 receiving yards. Ideally, we would want to see the efficiency higher. But given the contested nature of his targets, Green has never been a high-catch percentage player. With that said, when they connect, they are chunk plays, averaging 9.2 yards per target and 15.7 yards per reception.
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Of the Cardinals’ receivers, he has also had the most success this season against the Rams. In their first meeting, Green caught 5 of 6 targets for 67 yards and a score. Then, in Week 14, Green saw 10 targets, catching 7 passes for 102 yards. As a dart throw, Green could be an intriguing play if you are treating this as a single-game slate.
Antoine Wesley is the cost-saving play for DFS
At $3,300 on DraftKings, Antoine Wesley is just $300 over the minimum but brings far more upside than others in the same range. Playing on 58.3% of the snaps post-Hopkins injury, Wesley has been the touchdown scorer. Seeing 21 targets, Wesley has caught 11 passes for 95 yards but has 3 receiving touchdowns.
Where Rondale Moore was seen as the breakout WR for the Cardinals, it’s been Wesley when it has mattered the most. The yards and receptions don’t inspire much confidence, but his 135 routes run is what catches my eye. Opportunities matter in DFS, and in a game where points will be needed, give me the guy with a penchant for finding the end zone. Wesley is a viable money-saving option that I can see being in lineups that take the slate.
