NFL DFS Picks: Kyler Murray or Matthew Stafford?

Looking at the Monday DraftKings DFS prime-time slate, what are the fantasy outlooks for Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford?

Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) is a great way to get that fantasy football fix in the NFL playoffs. With just four weeks of football remaining, our time is limited. Let’s take a look at the Monday DraftKings DFS prime-time slate and the fantasy outlooks for Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford.

NFL DFS Picks: Kyler Murray or Matthew Stafford

Of these two NFC quarterbacks, who has the highest upside in DFS formats for the first-ever Wild Card Weekend Monday Night Football game? Let’s dive in.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals ($7,000)

Murray finished the year as the overall QB4, averaging 22.1 fantasy points per game. Although he appeared to be an elite fantasy quarterback, his production was buoyed by his massive weeks. Of his 309.8 total fantasy points on the season, 32.4% of those points came in three games. In his other 11 contests, Murray averaged 19 points per game, slightly less than Kirk Cousins (19.2 ppg).

With three overall QB1 finishes on the year and seven total games as a mid-QB1 or better, Murray has a significant ceiling. However, he tailed off later in the season, especially after DeAndre Hopkins’ absence. From Weeks 14-18, Murray had just one outing with multiple touchdown passes and had no rushing scores.

On the other side of the coin, the fact that he even managed to average 19 ppg over that span is what makes him such a valuable fantasy asset. Even when not playing well and not scoring touchdowns, he has enough rushing upside to maintain a high floor. Murray averaged 43.4 rushing yards per game over his final five contests. That’s essentially a touchdown’s worth of fantasy production on the ground.

In two starts against the Rams, Murray averaged 325.5 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, and 50 rushing yards. Murray is priced just $200 cheaper than Patrick Mahomes ($7,200). Yet, I expect Mahomes to be rostered far more in DFS. Murray makes for a nice contrarian play because you can easily stack him with Christian Kirk ($5,300), Zach Ertz ($4,500), and Antoine Wesley ($3,100). If playing the DraftKings DFS prime-time slate, I would build my lineup around Murray against a Rams secondary missing both starting safeties.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams ($6,200)

Stafford finished the year as the overall QB11, averaging 20.2 ppg. He had 13 multi-touchdown games, including six of his last seven. Stafford threw for 3 or more touchdowns nine times in 2021. We know he has a high weekly ceiling.

In his two starts against the Cardinals this year, Stafford averaged 283.5 passing yards, 2.5 touchdown passes, and 0.5 interceptions, good for an average of 21.9 fantasy points.

Given Stafford’s cost relative to Mahomes ($7,200) and Murray ($7,000), going with Stafford in your DFS lineup could allow you to fit in more higher-priced players. With that said, the Rams being the home team and the favorite in this one means the majority of people will think they are more likely to win. Given Stafford’s cost, he could be rostered more heavily than we’d like.

Everyone will likely have Cooper Kupp ($9,000) in their lineups anyway. Where you can differentiate is in which ancillary wide receivers you choose. I like the upside of stacking Murray with two of his pass catchers more than Stafford with his non-Kupp receivers.

Jason Katz is a Fantasy Analyst at Pro Football Network. You can follow him on Twitter: @jasonkatz13 and find more of his work here.