NFL Championship Games Prop Bets

Against The Spread Co-Host Jason Sarney lays his leans and official NFL Championship Games prop bets.

With just three total games left in the football season, it’s time to maximize profit margin with a full slate of NFL Championship Games prop bets. The Tennessee Titans travel to the Kansas City Chiefs followed by a top-seeded showdown in the NFC with the Green Bay Packers visiting the San Francisco 49ers.

There are plenty of lucrative prop plays for this NFL Championship Weekend and if scouring the online books hard enough there are many “hittable” bets with excellent odds to profit from. We will start in Kansas City, where Ryan Tannehill continues his magical Comeback Player of the Year season and walks into Arrowhead Stadium with his Titans while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs await. 

NFL Championship Games prop bets in the Ryan Tannehill market: 

The amount of yards he can throw is anyone’s guess, and ideally, the Titans won’t want to rely on a shootout with him and Mahomes. Derrick Henry makes Tannehill a tricky play to bank on, prop bet wise. Here are a few leans that have potential, but precarious enough for me personally to not make official plays. 

Tannehill OVER 14.5 rushing yards -112LEAN PLAY

Tannehill pass for OVER 300+ yards +350LEAN PLAY


NFL Championship Games prop bets in the Derrick Henry market: 

Derrick Henry has had a playoff run, so to speak, for the record books. His over/under yardage total opened at around 108.5 and is now above 110. This is a high number to bank on, and while it is foolish to bet against another 100+ yard, the odds aren’t there for me to risk it, coupled with the fact Kansas City is a team that can jump out to a huge lead, thus taking carries away from Henry in a potential comeback effort. 

However, there is a market for Henry, clearly, and I am focusing on the touchdown aspect of his value. His anytime score play is -170, which honestly isn’t very inviting for me, but his odds at scoring two or more touchdowns is a spiked up +360. This can mean a rush and a reception score and we are money. 

Henry two plus TD scorer +360, OFFICIAL PLAY 1 unit

NFL Championship Games prop bets in the Patrick Mahomes market: 

What don’t you like with Mahomes? It’s a matter of finding the fun odds with him. The layup is his over 2.5 touchdown passes which should be a hit if this game plays anything as expected. With plus ledger odds that Mahomes can hit a trio of passing scores, I will take those to the bank weekly. 

Mahomes OVER 2.5 passing TD’s +120, OFFICIAL PLAY 1 unit  

NFL Championship Games prop bets in the Travis Kelce market: 

Tight End Travis Kelce had himself three playoff games worth of production last week with 10 receptions 134 yards and a hat trick of touchdowns in the Divisional Round against the Houston Texans. 

Will he repeat this performance? Likely not, and I am not saying he won’t, but I do want to limit the investment on him this particular week and spread the chips around a bit. His odds for an anytime score are tolerable, but hunt for some other Chiefs in terms of yardage and other fun plays. 

Kelce ANYTIME TD -115, OFFICIAL PLAY 1 unit 

NFL Championship Games prop bets in the Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman markets: 

The Chiefs receiving trio can all put up huge number in limited work, so let us try to take advantage of the long-balls they specialize in. For instance, a Sammy Watkins play for his longest reception is a reachable 17.5 yards, and for him to get into the endzone is a juicy +200. For the faithful, him making the first game score pays a gaudy +1200. If you have the guts, that will lead to some early game glory. 

Tyreek Hill was quiet last week, and this week that could all change — think chunk plays here. He has a reachable over/under mark of 76.5 receiving yards, and he can pretty much do that by halftime in this game. 

With a potential for a lot of scoring, and attention of guys like Kelce, Hill and Watkins, rookie Mecole Hardman can make his presence felt on a play or two. 

The volume may not be there, but a pair of catches for heavy yards and a potential score could be. 

Watkins LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 17.5 yards -126, OFFICIAL PLAY 1 unit


Watkins 1st GAME TD SCORER +1200, LEAN PLAY

Hill OVER 76.5 receiving yards -108, OFFICIAL PLAY 1 unit 


Other Titans at Chiefs prop plays

Corey Davis OVER 38.5 receiving yards -112, LEAN PLAY

Anytime Scorers: Corey Davis +340, Anthony Firkser +800 (“Hail Mary” play)

“Bang for your Buck” play

Patrick Mahomes throws 4+ TDs and KC wins pays +350, OFFICIAL PLAY 1 unit

Switching gears to the NFC, this game is an entirely different beast, and the touchdown prop odds alone indicates that the house books aren’t expecting too much scoring. Reason being: there is not one anytime touchdown scorer in the “minus” ledger, which tells me that points may be on the few and far between side. 

Let’s hope not, but there could very well be less than four overall touchdowns scored in this one, as both defenses can be formidable despite talent on each offensive side of the ball. 

When looking at the quarterbacks, I don’t expect heavy passing numbers in terms of yardage, especially on the Packers side. Rodgers has too good of a running back duo to have to rely too much on his passing. 

Having Davante Adams helps, and he is a player we can bank on for a big chunk play or two. It is that type of play I am looking for on Green Bay’s end. 

NFL Championship Games prop bets in the Aaron Rodgers market: 

Rodgers isn’t the +300 yards/game guarantee he once was, but he may need to get his arm ready to go for a comeback effort or two. His seasonal yardage total was low, but a chance to come from behind can make a semi-reachable passing yardage play a solid one on Sunday. 

Rodgers pass for OVER 250+ yards +110, LEAN PLAY

NFL Championship Games prop bets in the Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams markets: 

The Packers have an outstanding fire and ice running back approach heading into this January road game in Northern California. Each have components to their games that take pressure off Aaron Rodgers, and with plenty of it coming from Nick Bosa, look for both to help their quarterback all game. 


Williams OVER 20.5 rush yards -112, OFFICIAL PLAY 1 unit 

NFL Championship Games prop bets in the Davante Adams market: 

As mentioned earlier, for some reason the anytime scorer odds are all rather solid, and Davante Adams’ is begging for coverage at +160. He is also a big play threat so look for a huge chunk play or two, or simply just enough to cover 25 percent of the field. 

Adams LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 23.5 yards -112, OFFICIAL PLAY 1 unit 


NFL Championship Games prop bets in the Jimmy Garoppolo market: 

With a running game like the 49ers have, thanks to coach Kyle Shanahan’s exquisite scheme, Jimmy G doesn’t have to be a 300-yard/game quarterback. 250 would be nice in a championship game with the weapons he has, though. The Packers rush defense is better than their pass defense, and this is a hittable figure to reach for. 

Garoppolo OVER 246.5 passing yards -112, LEAN PLAY

NFL Championship Games prop bets in the George Kittle market: 

Last week was a low-key game for the tight end as the Vikings held him in check with just three catches for 16 yards, but that will change against Green Bay, a team he had massive success against earlier this season. 

Kittle OVER 75.5 receiving yards -108, OFFICIAL PLAY 1 unit 


Kittle OVER 100+ receiving yards +180, HEAVY LEAN 

NFL Championship Games prop bets in the 49ers backfield and WR corps markets:

With multiple able-bodied runners and Shanahan’s scheme, it is very hard to predict running back volume and success as well as wide receiver usage. While I do see a solid amount of passing yards thrown up by San Francisco, we must pick our spots here. 

Rookie Deebo Samuel is perhaps the most lucrative Niner here. With solid odds and reachable numbers, Samuel can be a cash cow for you this weekend. 

Samuel OVER 49.5 receiving yards -108, OFFICIAL PLAY 1 unit 


Samuel OVER 100+ receiving yards +500, LEAN PLAY

“Bang for your Buck” plays

Jimmy Graham ANYTIME TD SCORER +490, OFFICIAL PLAY .4 units


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