While the NFC East remains tight heading into Week 17, the Dallas Cowboys‘ Week 16 loss to the Miami Dolphins significantly hindered their chances of taking the division from the Philadelphia Eagles. Jalen Hurts and Co. took down the New York Giants on Sunday, giving the Eagles (11-4) a one-game lead over the Cowboys (10-5) with two weeks remaining in the NFL regular season.
Philadelphia has the upper hand, but all is not lost for Dallas. Given that both teams have already clinched a playoff spot, let’s look at how Week 17 could affect the Eagles’ and Cowboys’ seeding within the NFC.
NFC East Playoff Scenarios | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 30 before Saturday’s game began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the weekend.
After the Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate in Week 17, the Cowboys are now the No. 2 seed in the NFC and are leading the NFC East after the Eagles’ loss to the Cardinals.
Saturday Night Update
Cowboys (11-5) defeated Lions (11-5)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Update
49ers (12-4) defeated Commanders (4-12)
Cardinals (4-12) defeated Eagles (11-5)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the top teams in the NFC East entering Week 17. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the NFC East Playoff Scenarios for the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys?
The Eagles are the heavy favorites to win the NFC East entering Week 17. Philadelphia hoists the division crown in 89% of Pro Football Network’s simulations.
Nick Sirianni’s team can win its second consecutive NFC East title as soon as this weekend. Philadelphia will be division champions if it takes down the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday and the Cowboys lose to or tie the Detroit Lions on Saturday. The Eagles can also win the division by tying the Cardinals while Dallas loses.
Philadelphia controls its own destiny. Win out, and they take the NFC East.
The Cowboys need the Eagles to lose at least one of their next two games to have a chance at the division title. But Philadelphia will face the NFL’s easiest schedule by DVOA to close the year, following its Week 17 tilt against Arizona with a regular-season finale against the New York Giants.
As long as the Cowboys and Eagles finish with the same record, Dallas will control any tiebreakers:
Week 17: DAL beats DET, PHI beats ARZ
Week 18: DAL beats WAS, PHI loses to NYG
Result: Cowboys (12-5) win NFC East over Eagles (12-5) based on division record (5-1 s. 4-2)
Week 17: DAL loses to DET, PHI loses to ARZ
Week 18: DAL beats WAS, PHI loses to NYG
Result: Cowboys (11-6) win NFC East over Eagles (11-6) based on division record (5-1 s. 4-2)
Week 17: DAL beats DET, PHI loses to ARZ
Week 18: DAL loses to WAS, PHI loses to NYG
Result: Cowboys (11-6) win NFC East over Eagles (11-6) based on conference record (8-4 s. 7-5)
If the Cowboys can manage to win out, they’ll need to hope the Eagles get upset in at least one of their remaining contests.
Can Either NFC East Team Clinch the No. 1 Seed?
The No. 5 seed is the floor for both the Eagles and the Cowboys. Neither club will fall out of the top Wild Card slot in the NFC, no matter how the final two weeks of the regular season play out.
But both teams still have a shot at the No. 1 seed. Philadelphia, which has the same 11-4 record as the current No. 1 seeded San Francisco 49ers and the No. 3 seed Detroit Lions, has the more realistic odds. PFN’s simulations give the Eagles a 17% chance of earning a first-round playoff bye, roughly in line with the Lions (15%) but well behind the 49ers (66%).
MORE: PFN’s Week 17 Power Rankings
Philadelphia likely needs to win out while hoping San Francisco and Detroit lose at least one game each. In any scenario in which the Eagles end up tied with either the 49ers or the Lions, they’d lose the No. 1 seed based on NFL playoff tiebreakers.
Technically, Philadelphia could drop one of its two remaining games, but it would need the 49ers and Lions to both lose out. San Francisco will face the Washington Commanders and Los Angeles Rams to close out the 2023 campaign, while Detroit will conclude with the Cowboys and the Minnesota Vikings.
Meanwhile, Dallas’ path to home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs is exceptionally narrow. The Cowboys need to win both of their remaining games, have the Eagles lose one of two, and hope the 49ers lose out.
PFN’s simulations aren’t buying Dallas’ chances, giving Dak Prescott’s squad just a 2% chance of landing the No. 1 seed.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!Â
