In a week where most news is bad news, it’s nice to have something positive other than a COVID test. The New York Jets — and by extension, fantasy football managers — are expected to get rookie running back Michael Carter back this week. Carter has had some massive performances this year, so what should fantasy managers expect from him, Ty Johnson, and Tevin Coleman in Week 15?
Michael Carter is ready to go
According to head coach Robert Saleh, Carter will return and have a “significant role” this Sunday against the Miami Dolphins. That is music to fantasy managers’ ears.
As is sometimes the case, it took the rookie a little time to get going and earn a substantial workload in the Jets offense. But Carter strung together an incredible four-game stretch between Weeks 7-10. In that time, he averaged 50.5 rushing yards, 5.5 receptions, and 60.5 receiving yards per game.
Unfortunately, Carter got hurt in Week 11 against Miami and has been on injured reserve since. In that game, he managed a healthy 63 rushing yards on only 9 carries. With fellow rookie WR Elijah Moore now on IR, Carter is the best skill position player the Jets have.
While they turn their eyes to next season, New York’s focus should be on developing the chemistry and talent of their rookie QB/RB duo. Carter and Zach Wilson will likely have a lot of work together this week.
Carter has proven to be a reliable fantasy asset
While everyone is talking about Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, and Elijah Mitchell (for good reason), Carter is the fourth in the group of rookie running backs that have proven to be valuable for fantasy.
During that four-week stretch between Weeks 7-10, Carter was the overall RB3. He was the RB9 on a points-per-game basis. His utilization in the passing game helps tremendously. During that stretch, Carter had more fantasy points per game than Austin Ekeler, D’Andre Swift, Dalvin Cook, and the aforementioned Mitchell. The guy can play.
Will we still see Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman?
The Jets’ backfield has also seen Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman get work in Carter’s absence, but neither has popped the way Carter has. Coleman is a serviceable running back who’s averaging 4.3 yards per carry this year. But he’s essentially non-existent in the passing game and hasn’t found the end zone.
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Johnson, meanwhile, is the yin to Coleman’s yang, as he thrives in the passing game. He’s received 5+ targets five times this year. While the Jets have some depth options that can contribute, Saleh clearly views Carter as the lead back in New York’s backfield and has a plan to get him heavily involved.
Michael Carter fantasy expectations
Miami has been a tough matchup for running backs lately. They’ve allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position over the last four weeks. In that time, no running back has scored a rushing or receiving touchdown against them.
Wilson has a tendency to not complete a lot of passes and to throw a lot of interceptions. The Jets should try and make things as easy as possible on him by getting the ball to Carter in a variety of ways.
Based on the potential volume and the ability to make splash plays in the passing game, Carter looks to be a good RB2 play this week. If he can break the Dolphins’ four-game stretch without allowing a touchdown to opposing RBs, Carter could find himself in RB1 territory as well.
