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    New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Picks, Odds Week 5: Patrick Mahomes’ Undefeated Streak Threatened by Derek Carr

    What does our Monday night prediction look like when the undefeated but banged-up Kansas City Chiefs take on the New Orleans Saints?

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    The Kansas City Chiefs will now be without Rashee Rice in a season in which they already lost Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco. Despite these injuries and Patrick Mahomes’ surprisingly bad start, the Chiefs are still undefeated heading into a Monday night matchup with the New Orleans Saints.

    The Saints started off the season red hot before dropping their last two games. Regardless, they have a 57-point differential going into Week 5 with a 2-2 record.

    New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More

    • Spread
      Chiefs -5.5
    • Moneyline
      Chiefs (-258); Saints (+210)
    • Over/Under
      43 total points
    • Game Time
      8:15 p.m. ET
    • Location
      Arrowhead Stadium (Kanas City)

    Saints vs. Chiefs Preview and Prediction

    According to TruMedia, the Chiefs have been top 10 in EPA (expected points added) on play-action passes every season that Mahomes has started in. This season, Kansas City ranks 26th in play-action EPA. This trend is not a result of their run game, which ranked 20th and 14th in rush EPA the prior two seasons despite being part of a top-10 play-action offense.

    Overall, the Chiefs’ struggles are a bit overblown.

    They still rank 11th in offensive EPA and 10th when pressured. Against the blitz, they rank 18th. This is despite being blitzed at the 29th-highest rate in the NFL.

    Luckily for the Chiefs, the Saints’ defense is roughly average in blitz rate and against play-action this year. New Orleans’ offense ranks fourth overall, doing particularly well against pressure (third in EPA).

    The offensive line, however, has had mixed results in pass blocking. They rank 13th in pressure allowed per dropback, 29th in PFF pass-blocking grade, and 24th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate.

    New Orleans’ success against pressure has been a result of great play-calling by Klint Kubiak. The Saints are fifth in the league with less than 2.5 seconds to throw the ball. This is particularly impressive when you see that their top wide receiver ranks 38th out of 113 players at the position in terms of separation, with their only other qualified WR ranking 68th.

    Kansas City’s defense isn’t particularly effective at getting pressure, ranking in quick pressures and 15th in overall pressures. I expect the Chiefs to win this game, but I also expect the Saints’ offense to have some success against KC’s defense.

    My picks: Chiefs ML (-258), Saints +5.5 (-110), Over 43 points (-110)

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