The New Orleans Saints are a sleeping giant in an open NFC. Can Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara push them into contention? Let’s examine the 2022 Saints’ current record prediction, projected win totals, any intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and their odds to win the NFC South, NFC, and Super Bowl in 2023.
All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated and are correct as of Aug. 25 at 3:15 p.m. ET.
New Orleans Saints record prediction 2022
Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesars has provided odds and spreads for 14 of the Saints’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based on those numbers, New Orleans is projected as the favorite in five games, underdogs in eight, and a push in one. If their season matches those predictions, the Saints will have a 5-8-1 record following Week 15 of the 2022 campaign.
Within two years, the Saints organization has undergone plenty of change. Losing Drew Brees after 2020 devastated the offense, but star receiver Michael Thomas has also not seen the field since that season. Head coach Sean Payton also stepped down this offseason, leaving the job to former defensive coordinator Dennis Allen.
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More uncertainty exists, though, as five-time Pro Bowler Alvin Kamara awaits a potential suspension for his actions that resulted in a battery charge this past offseason. Losing Kamara would devastate the Saints’ season, but recent reports are pointing towards any suspension by the NFL coming next year.
The Saints are the riskiest play of any team we’ve covered besides the Cleveland Browns after they received news of Deshaun Watson’s final suspension terms.
Saints odds, picks, and props
Now we know the sportsbooks’ predictions for the Saints on a week-by-week basis. Let’s look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, conference, and the Super Bowl.
- Saints win total: 8.5 (over -105, under -115)
- Saints make the playoffs: Yes (+125), No (-155)
- Saints finish second in NFC South: +110
- NFC South winner: +310
- NFC winner: +2000
- Super Bowl winner: +4000
Oddsmakers are hesitant to buy into the Saints. New Orleans is relying on Winston to carry an offense no longer led by Payton. Winston, coming off a torn ACL, has only attempted 172 passes in two years with the team.
Factoring in Thomas’ absence for the last 18 months and it’s easy to be pessimistic about the team’s direction.
But Winston was fantastic in 2021 before getting hurt, showing improved passing mechanics and decision-making. He should be even better this season with a healthy Thomas, Chris Olave, and Jarvis Landry to target. Winston also doesn’t need to be spectacular since this team had the fourth-best scoring defense in 2021.
Relying on their extremely talented defense will get the Saints far on their own. A similar roster won nine games last year and finished second in the NFC South. I believe this year could bring a special run for the franchise as the rest of the conference has taken a step backward.
Saints odds and player props
Although the Saints don’t have a major player in the races for MVP or Offensive Rookie of the Year, they have enough playmaking worth betting on props. For as well as Kamara has played throughout his career, he hasn’t even earned an All-Pro bid despite being a Pro Bowler each season of his career.
Oddsmakers didn’t grace us with the chance to bet on props for Winston or Kamara, unfortunately. Still, we have several solid player props available. Let’s take a look at the most playable ones below.
- MVP
Jameis Winston +8000 - Offensive Rookie of the Year
Chris Olave +1000 - Comeback Player of the Year
Jameis Winston +550 - Michael Thomas regular-season receiving yards
Over/Under 800.5 (-115) - Chris Olave regular-season receiving yards
Over/Under 719.5 (over -125, under -105) - Cameron Jordan regular-season sacks
Over/Under 9.75 (over +100, under -130)
The Saints have arguably the most unique betting offerings for player awards and props available of any team.
Their leading rusher is one of the most dynamic dual-threats in the league. Their top receiver was on a Hall of Fame pace before a sudden ankle injury cost him a season-plus of games. Winston once threw for 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in one season.
And yet, the Saints have very reasonable lines offered for their top stars or have no lines offered at all. The best way to bet on this team is to be firm about your optimism or pessimism and go 100% in either direction. Otherwise, there’s not enough room to dabble on both sides of the coin.
2022 picks
In the game of “in or out,” I’m buying the Saints.
This team has a fierce defense that should pick up where it left off after they replaced Marcus Williams with Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye. They possess a deep cornerback room that few teams can match in terms of top-end talent and versatility.
Dennis Allen has done an excellent job with the unit. They finished seventh in total yards allowed, third in passing touchdowns, sixth in interceptions, and first in rush yards per attempt. This side of the ball is a terror to face.
All they need is a full year from Winston to succeed. Even if Thomas is out of the lineup for a few weeks, their depth has been significantly upgraded, so they can withstand his absence better than 2021.
The Saints aren’t better than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they’re a pestering foe who can swing up to their competition.
1u: Saints over 8.5 wins (-105)
1u: Saints make the playoffs (+125)
1u: Saints finish second in NFC South (+110)
Player props
Winston isn’t a viable MVP candidate, but he’s the best Comeback Player of the Year pick because he’s a quarterback and in a strong situation to succeed. Even an average season from Winston could give him the edge over a great season from Derrick Henry because of his positional importance. It’s at least worth putting a unit on since those are the only two worthwhile favorite bets for the award on my board.
I also like taking Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall are on a bad offense with a bad quarterback, and Hall looks like he won’t even be named the starter for Day 1. Treylon Burks has been struggling in camp. That leaves Jahan Dotson as the most obvious competitor to Olave, but he’s also playing in a conservative offense with a mediocre quarterback.
There’s value in taking Olave and the over on his yards. Even with Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill combining for 332 passes last year, Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harty combined for 1,268 yards. Harty also missed four games. Both Thomas and Olave have room to feast.
Thomas will hit his over as long as he’s healthy. He might even go over if he misses half the season. He’s that good, and Winston favors big receivers with a large catch radius.
Finally, Cameron Jordan’s sack total is a shrewd over. He’s gone over 10 sacks in four of the last five years, five of the last seven, and six of nine. He has had less than 7.5 in a single season (his rookie year). Chances are very good he’ll go over 9.75 sacks, plus we still get positive value to make the smart bet.
1u: Olave wins Offensive Rookie of the Year (+1000)
1u: Winston wins Comeback Player of the Year (+550)
1u: Thomas over 800.5 receiving yards (-115)
1u: Jordan over 9.75 sacks (+100)
1u: Olave over 719.5 receiving yards (-125)
