New England Patriots WR dynasty outlook for 2020

The New England Patriots have been a dynasty in the NFL for over a decade now, and practically the pinnacle of what an NFL team should be. From a fantasy standpoint, however, they’ve been a little hit or miss. With the departure of Tom Brady to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the signing of free agent Cam Newton, this Patriots team is going to look very different than what fantasy managers are used to. That being said, the wide receivers are all the same from last year, so let’s look specifically at the Patriots WR dynasty 2020 outlook and figure out what to do with each of them now that Newton is under center.

Patriots WR Dynasty Outlook for 2020

DLF ADP comparison

Before we dive into projecting the future, let’s first look at the past. Based on historical ADP from DLF, starting when the Patriots drafted N’Keal Harry, the order in which they’re getting drafted in dynasty leagues goes Harry, then Julian Edelman, then Mohamed Sanu. Can’t say I’m shocked at this, it makes sense that dynasty managers would want the younger first-round talent over the veteran producer.

Looking at the graph a little closer and you can see that while Harry has gone ahead of Edelman his entire time in the league, Edelman has seen the steeper drop off over time, most notably when Brady left the team. Even after Newton signed, no one really saw much of an increase in their ADP value. Again, this makes some sense because most dynasty managers just don’t know what to expect yet.

Julian Edelman

• Age: 34
• Free Agent: 2022
• DLF July 2020 ADP: 138
• 2019 Overall OSM: 32.94 (WR49)
• 2009 RAS: 9.27/10
• 2019 CS: 5.27 (WR10)

From a purely athletic standpoint, Edelman is arguably the best receiver on the team. He came into the league with the highest Relative Athletic Score of the group at 9.27. This means that his metrics, when he entered the league, were better than 92% of all players calculated. From a fantasy standpoint, he’s one of the most consistent receivers in the league, coming in at WR10 in the entire league with a 5.27 Consistency Score (CS) for 2019 in PFN contributor Philip Caldwell‘s Consistency Collection (Amazon). Calculating the CS for each player involves a mathematical formula that relates a player’s ceiling to their average score, so the higher the score, the more consistently “good” a player is for fantasy.

Edelman’s actual production on the field based on PFN’s Offensive Share Metric tells a slightly different story. For 2019, Edelman only got a 24.95 OSM score, putting him at wide receiver 49 overall, which isn’t very flashy at all. This score puts him right in the middle of the wide receiver group as a whole, but it’s likely that this is due to him seeing shorter passes with less separation and being Brady’s security blanket for so many years. He’s still got talent, so Edelman’s 2020 dynasty outlook is strong, but beyond that, it’s hard to predict how long he can keep it up.

N’Keal Harry

• Age: 22
• Free Agent: 2024
• DLF July 2020 ADP: 86
• 2019 Overall OSM: n/a (min 5 games)
• 2019 RAS: 8.45/10
• 2019 CS: 1.28 (WR95)

The only time Patriots head coach Bill Belichick selected a wide receiver in the first round of an NFL draft was last year in 2019 when New England selected N’Keal Harry.

Based on Harry’s high RAS of 8.45, it makes sense as to why. Harry was a beast in terms of measurables and was almost everyone’s rookie WR1 in dynasty before the draft. Unfortunately, he had a shortened season due to injury, so he didn’t qualify for an overall OSM last year. His CS was also pretty dismal related to other receivers last year, but that’s not unheard of for a rookie that barely sees the field.

Related | Fantasy impact of the Rob Gronkowski trade

In terms of his own outlook as a Patriots WR for dynasty in 2020, Harry can really only go up from his 2019 outing. He’s still the clear-cut best option from a fantasy angle due to his enormous upside as a player. Edelman may be the best receiver on the field, but Harry is likely to outperform Edelman from here on out in dynasty. He’s an easy choice for a bench spot, but if you’re relying on him as a WR2 or flex, you might end up hating yourself down the stretch this season due to his volatility.

Mohamed Sanu

• Age: 30
• Free Agent: 2021
• DLF July 2020 ADP: 282
• 2019 Overall OSM: 34.38 (WR29)
• 2012 RAS: 6.47/10
• 2019 CS: 2.20 (WR67)

When the Patriots traded a second-round pick for Mohamed Sanu back in October of 2020, everyone thought they were nuts. That is a high price for an aging receiver in this market. But apparently, Belichick knew something the fantasy community didn’t: Sanu still had something left in the tank.

He finished the year with an OSM of 34.38, putting him in the top 30 of all receivers measured, which is quite the accomplishment. While his RAS back in 2012 wasn’t stellar, and his CS for 2019 wasn’t very high, he’s still a solid option and all-around great asset, both for the Patriots and for dynasty managers.

Related | Three Patriots 2021 NFL Draft targets that maximize Cam Newton

With the addition of Newton, I wouldn’t be shocked if Sanu sees the most benefit of the three receivers we’re looking at. Since Newton is new to town, none of the receivers have a leg up in the rapport category, and Sanu did relatively well at finding separation downfield to earn his top 30 OSM for the year. He’s a deep sleeper for a top 30 fantasy finish as well and worth a look in trades in all formats, just in case his current owner all that isn’t impressed with him.

Conclusion – Buy Sanu, Sell Edelman, Hold Harry

To me, it comes down to this, which player has the most room to rise in ADP value between now and next year, and which player has the best chance to fall in ADP value. Of these three, I would recommend buying Sanu at his price, selling Edelman at his, and holding Harry at his. All three should maintain their value for 2020, give or take, but each of them comes with a wide range of outcomes after that.

Continue to visit the Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis like the PFN OSM data and be sure to keep coming back to our Dynasty Fantasy Football section for more fantasy football coverage.

Andrew Hall is a writer for PFN covering the NFL and Fantasy Football. You can follow him on Twitter: @AndrewHallFF.