After putting together a surprisingly solid 2020 campaign, WR Nelson Agholor headed across the country and signed in the offseason to what many presume to be the WR1 role for the New England Patriots. However, does Agholor’s fantasy football outlook suggest he will be the top receiver or are there better values given his ADP in 2021?
Nelson Agholor’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Many were surprised when the Las Vegas Raiders turned to Agholor in 2020 to upgrade their wide receiver room. Agholor had never exactly been the picture of consistency when it came to his play on the field.Â
From 2015 to 2019, he averaged 503 yards and 3.6 TDs on a 60% catch rate (44.8 catches on 74.8 targets). His best two seasons came in 2017 and 2018 when he had back-to-back 700-yard seasons but struggled for touchdowns, recording 5 or more just once (8 in 2017). As a result, his fantasy stock was viewed similarly. In his first four seasons, Agholor was a WR1 in only 13% of games and a WR3 or worse in 80% of contests.
In 2020, however, Agholor went on to have arguably the best season of his career. While his catch percentage was low (59%), Agholor turned his 48 receptions into a career-high 896 yards and 8 touchdowns, serving as the deep threat (15.3 aDOT) despite the team using the No. 12 overall pick on Henry Ruggs III. He averaged 10.1 ppg as the WR29 and recorded eight double-digit games but was a WR2 or better in only 25% of games.
Agholor signed with the Patriots on a rather surprising two-year, $22 million contract as a free agent in the offseason. It’s also head-scratching given Cam Newton’s struggles on deep passing. He completed just 31.6% of deep targets, with an average intended depth of just 7.6 over the last four years.Â
Could Agholor be the WR1 for the Patriots? Sure, but given what he is asked to, it is unlikely he is ever worth starting giving the volatility in his production.Â
Fantasy projection
The Patriots are going to be a better offense and team in general next year. Not only did the offense struggle, but they had eight players on defense opt-out.
If we look at their previous five-year average, the stats paint a clear picture. From 2015 to 2019, New England averaged 27.8 points on 66.8 plays per game. Moreover, the Patriots averaged 37 passing attempts for 269.2 yards. In 2020, points (20.4 ppg) and plays (61.2 per game) fell, and passing slid to just 27.5 attempts and 180.6 yards. It could have been even uglier if not for the fourth-best rushing offense (31.4 attempts for 146.6 yards).
The Patriots knew they had the worst skill group in the NFL. It’s no coincidence that the first passing TD to a WR didn’t come until Week 11. The team attempted to rectify this by signing Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. In addition, they signed both Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry at tight end.
I am not sure if Agholor will end up as the team’s WR1 for fantasy, whether it is Newton or Mac Jones under center. I think Jakobi Meyers might have the best shot of anyone. He could be the player to take over the Julian Edelman role following his retirement. No question, Agholor will have his weeks and highlight plays. But his fantasy outlook will suffer from the consistency side of things.
Early projections see Agholor generate around 75-80 targets, 45-47 receptions, 730 yards, and 4 touchdowns.
Nelson Agholor’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Agholor is currently being taken with an ADP of 146.5 in half PPR formats. His ADP is much lower on NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), where Agholor is being selected with a 172.96 ADP. He is going even lower on Fleaflicker, where his ADP is 185.5.
Should you draft Nelson Agholor in 2021 for fantasy?
There will inevitably be weeks where Agholor will have flex appeal and be in consideration for your starting lineup. But you have to know the risk that comes with him. We have seen the 25+ point weeks. Yet, if those targets fail to connect, he can ruin your week (36.7% of games with six or fewer points).
Outside of best ball, where I do not have to worry about the floor side of his projection, I would look elsewhere on draft day and let someone else deal with the weekly headache of plugging him into their lineup.
