NDSU vs. Montana State prediction, pick for 2022 FCS National Championship

The 2021 college football season is nearly over, with the FCS National Championship taking place on Saturday and its FBS counterpart kicking off on Monday. Here is our pick and prediction for the NDSU vs. Montana State FCS title match.

NDSU vs. Montana State prediction and odds | 2022 FCS Championship

• Spread:  North Dakota State -7 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Moneyline: North Dakota State -280, Montana State +225
• Over/Under: 42

NDSU vs. Montana State betting trends

A touchdown spread in a national championship isn’t unheard of, but only one win separates these teams. In fact, the Bobcats own the best record against the spread (10-3) in the FCS. Additionally, they have gone 3-0 ATS in the playoffs. In their last three games as underdogs, Montana State is 3-0.

Meanwhile, the Bison are a modest 7-6 against the spread this year, going 2-1 in the postseason. However, NDSU boasts a 13-1 record straight up, with their only loss coming at the hands of South Dakota State — the only game they were not favored this year.

North Dakota State is a perennial title contender, but 12-2 Montana State should not be overlooked. These two programs have faced off three times since 2010, with the Bison owning healthy victories in each matchup (all in the playoffs). So, the Bobcats are looking for revenge in the 2021-2022 FCS National Championship.

You know what they say about revenge? You better be ready to dig two graves. If Montana State comes out of the gates hot and sporting an aggressive playstyle, it may ultimately cost them. Making matters worse, NDSU has won 36 straight following bye weeks in the regular season and postseason, including eight championship bouts.

NDSU vs. Montana State prediction

The Bobcats have allowed over 20 points just once all season, as they own the No. 2 scoring defense in the nation (13.4 points per game). But guess who is No. 1? Yup, the Bison (11.2 ppg). QB Tommy Mellott is running the show for Montana State, with Matthew McKay entering the transfer portal prior to the postseason. While the shiny new freshman QB has torn it up on the ground (110-705-10 rushing line), he has only completed 52% of his passes.

NDSU can feast on a young signal-caller who isn’t overly accurate. Their defense set a program record with 49 sacks this season, with defensive ends Brayden Thomas (9) and Eli Mostaert (7.5) leading the way. Although, Montana State isn’t far behind with 42, headlined by DEs Daniel Hardy (16) and Amandre Williams (8.5).

There is talent all over these rosters, but there can only be one victor. Both these teams possess stellar defenses and ground-and-pound offenses with play-action and deep-shot passes intermittently dispersed. As a result, I believe the winner will be decided by one of two factors: 1) which team has the final possession, and/or 2) which club wins the turnover battle.

My money is on the Bison, although Montana State is tied for the second-best turnover margin in the FCS (+15). They own the second-lowest interception rate with just 3 INTs in 306 attempts — none thrown by Mellott. However, there is something to be said about experience, which NDSU has astronomical amounts of in the postseason. Meanwhile, this is only the Bobcats’ first visit to the last dance since 1984. Much like the docuseries of Michael Jordan’s basketball career, this NDSU vs. Montana State matchup is must-watch TV.

Bison vs. Bobcats Prediction: NDSU 27, Montana State 17