Every NBA team has completed the 82-game regular-season odyssey. With a third of the league done playing, we’re down to 20 teams still competing for the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Using regular-season data while also forecasting each team’s road to the Finals, let’s rank each of the remaining teams based on their chances of winning it all in June.
1) Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder recorded the best point differential in regular season history, leaving no doubt about their status as clear championship favorites entering the postseason.
The Thunder own the best net rating by a wide margin, finishing at +12.7. That eclipsed the 1996-97 Chicago Bulls (who won 69 games) for the best by any team since the NBA began tracking play-by-play data 29 seasons ago. Oklahoma City ranked first in defensive efficiency and third in offense, while also recording a .500 or better record against all but the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors.
Their ability to shut off an opponent’s water for long stretches helped the Thunder earn a 3-1 record against the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers, their two likeliest NBA Finals opponents should they make that round. Making it through a difficult West playoff field won’t be a cakewalk, but the Thunder’s enviable depth should make them favorites in at least the first three rounds.
2) Boston Celtics
The Celtics may have finished second in the East standings to the Cavaliers, but they actually were slightly superior in net rating (+9.4 to +9.2), illustrating how even those teams are. The teams appear headed on a collision course for the East Finals after splitting the regular season series 2-2.
That reality shouldn’t disturb the Celtics, who controlled the majority of each game. In the four matchups between the teams, Boston led for roughly 77% of the total game time, with both Cavaliers wins stemming from fourth-quarter comebacks
Any series against Cleveland would still be a heavyweight fight, given that the Cavs boast the best offense in the NBA and a certified Celtics killer in Donovan Mitchell. The Celtics’ starting lineup was one of the more curiously mediocre groupings in the NBA, with the unit of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, and Kristaps Porzingis owning a net rating of exactly 0.0 in the regular season.
Brown’s persistent knee problems slowed him down the stretch and could be a game-changer if he can’t provide his typical level of shot creation on offense and ball pressure on defense. Still, the Celtics finished the regular season 19-3 even without being at full health most of the time. That suggests the defending champs still have the highest ceiling in the East and perhaps the whole league.
3) Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers finished with an astounding 121.0 offensive rating, tops in the regular season and just shy of last year’s Celtics for the best in a single season all-time. Coupled with a defense anchored by potential Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley, the Cavs’ extreme wealth of scoring options makes them a legitimate threat to win their second title.
Unlike some strong regular-season offenses in recent years, the Cavaliers have shown indications they’ll be able to execute in the halfcourt at a consistently high level, which should translate to the playoffs. In clutch time (defined as the score within five points in the final five minutes), the Cavs actually improved their offensive rating to 124.2, the best in the NBA.
Mitchell has a reputation as a clutch-time killer, but he’s actually only shot 36.7% in those situations this season. Instead, Cleveland has leaned on a more committee approach in the clutch. Darius Garland is the team’s leading scorer in clutch time, while Mobley and Ty Jerome have demonstrated blistering efficiency by shooting over 60% from the field in those situations.
All that is indicative of a team that is extremely difficult to stop and will likely wear an opponent down until they can steal the game at the end. Unseating the Celtics won’t be an easy feat (and the Indiana Pacers shouldn’t be overlooked as a potential second-round threat either), but the Cavaliers will have homecourt and the comfort of knowing they can reliably execute against an elite defense.
4) Los Angeles Lakers
With rotations shortening in the playoffs, a team’s championship viability often boils down to its star power. If that’s the case, few teams are better equipped to potentially spoil the top-tier contenders than the Los Angeles Lakers, led by Luka Dončić and LeBron James.
The Lakers own a surprisingly average +2.0 net rating when Luka and LeBron share the court, mostly due to mediocre defensive numbers. However, the offensive upside of that lineup is undeniable, as evidenced by the 61.7% true shooting percentage and 28% free throw rate the Lakers have with both on the court. Both those figures would have led the NBA during the regular season.
By avoiding the Thunder’s half of the West bracket, the Lakers have set up a potentially favorable playoff path if they can escape their tricky first-round series vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. Los Angeles will be more dangerous next year when it can assemble a preferred supporting cast around Dončić and James, but the current version will be a difficult out for any team as well.
5) Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers are one of the hottest teams in the NBA. The Clips won 10 of their last 11 games to surge out of the play-in tournament, including a critical overtime win on the road in Golden State on the final day of the season.
The key to the Clippers’ playoff hopes is Kawhi Leonard, who has quietly played at an MVP level for two months. Since the All-Star Break, Leonard is averaging nearly 25 points per game on over 50% shooting from the field and over 43% shooting from three. The only players averaging at least 25 PPG on 50/40 shooting splits for the season are Nikola Jokic and Kevin Durant.
Of course, we’ve seen this story before with Leonard, who managed to make it through only two games in each of L.A.’s last two playoff runs. When the trio of Leonard, James Harden, and Norman Powell share the court, the Clippers have a sparkling +14.8 net rating. However, all are at least 31 years old, making it tough to count on sustained excellence through a long playoff run.
The Clippers’ draw is extremely difficult, as they won’t have homecourt against the Denver Nuggets or in a potential second-round matchup vs. the Thunder. Still, that’s the only reason they don’t rank higher, as the upside of this team is good enough to compete against anyone.
6) Denver Nuggets
Despite one of the all-time shocking head coaching changes in NBA history, the Nuggets are tough to count out with the two-man combination of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. While Jokic is having another MVP-caliber year after becoming the first center to average a triple-double for a season, it was Murray’s return on Friday night vs. the Grizzlies that indicated this team’s true upside.
The Nuggets’ 2-4 record during Murray’s absence with a hamstring injury reflects their lack of depth to overcome any disruption to their very thin rotation. That rotation is all they need to win any given playoff game (or series), but it would be a huge burden for Denver’s top seven players to stay healthy through four straight rounds.
Ultimately, that’s why the Nuggets sit slightly below the top tier of championship contenders, despite many feeling as if Denver was the fourth-best team for most of the season. Homecourt advantage in the first round will help, potentially setting up a titanic clash with Oklahoma City in the second round.
7) Minnesota Timberwolves
After toiling away in play-in territory for most of the season, the Timberwolves are an incredibly dangerous team despite finishing with the sixth seed. The Wolves actually finished with the fourth-best net rating (highest of any team outside the Thunder-Cavaliers-Celtics Big 3), illustrating how this is a championship-level contender with a deflated win-loss record due to injuries and some close losses.
Anthony Edwards may be their engine, but Minnesota’s strength is its depth. The Wolves actually had a slightly better net rating with Edwards off the court (+5.1) than they did when their superstar guard was on (+4.8). That’s an illustration of their terrific bench unit as well as how players like Julius Randle are empowered to create more offense for themselves when Edwards isn’t on the court.
That’s not to take anything away from the 23-year-old superstar. Edwards’ evolution into a high-volume three-point sniper was a surprising outcome and one necessitated by the spacing the Wolves lost when they traded away Karl-Anthony Towns.
His ability to adapt to what the team needs is why this team is so dangerous in a playoff setting, where Minnesota can hone in on an opponent’s specific weaknesses. If the Timberwolves can upset the Lakers in the first round, there’s a decent chance they would be favorites to return to the Western Conference Finals.
8) Houston Rockets
The West’s most surprising turnaround story seized the No. 2 seed down the stretch. The Houston Rockets went 15-2 for a one-month stretch between March 6 and April 6, putting separation between themselves and every non-OKC team in the West. That ensures that Ime Udoka’s squad will have homecourt advantage for at least the first two rounds, should they make it that far.
There’s nothing about Houston’s profile that screams fluke. The Rockets have the seventh best net rating for the season, but only 0.4 points per 100 possessions separate them from the fourth-place Timberwolves. Their rotation full of explosive athletes pairs beautifully with Udoka’s defense-first mentality, which has allowed Houston to rank in the top five in defensive efficiency for the first time since the 2008-09 season.
And yet, the combination of playoff inexperience and a middling halfcourt offense casts doubts about the Rockets’ postseason upside. In clutch-time situations (score within five points in the final five minutes), the Rockets have the 19th-ranked offensive efficiency and a slightly negative net rating. They’re in a strange spot where their top scorer, Jalen Green, isn’t really their best clutch-time option, to the point where he’s not always on the floor at the end of games.
That doesn’t change the fact that a defense anchored by Amen Thompson and Dillon Brooks is difficult to play against. Regardless, the Rockets could be the extremely rare No. 2 seed to be a first-round underdog, depending on if the Warriors can win their first play-in game.
9) Golden State Warriors
The Warriors came this close to clawing their way out of the play-in tournament. However, a loss on the final day of the regular season means the Warriors will need to go through the play-in (where they’ve been eliminated twice) to ensure they make the playoffs.
Still, the Warriors could theoretically have a more favorable path. If they take care of business at home against the Grizzlies on Tuesday, Golden State could feasibly be favored against a young Rockets team. The Warriors won the season series 3-2, though Houston won a highly contentious game at the Chase Center on April 6.
The bigger concern is if there will be any lingering health issues for Stephen Curry (who hurt his shooting hand in the penultimate game vs. the Portland Trail Blazers) or Jimmy Butler (who appeared gimpy in Sunday’s overtime loss vs. the Clippers). The Warriors need those two to spearhead their lethal starting lineup of Butler, Curry, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, and Brandin Podziemski. Among lineups to play 150+ minutes together this season, their +16.5 net rating ranks fifth.
The ball movement of that grouping has been beautiful to watch. Golden State’s whopping 78.1% assist rate with those five players on the court is the highest of any five-man lineup with 150 minutes played all season. Even better, that group has limited the Warriors’ turnover-heavy tendencies, with a 2.6 assist-to-turnover ratio that would rank first among all teams.
The Warriors may need to play with a little more size if they face a Rockets team that led the NBA in offensive rebounding rate. But that’s putting the cart before the horse, as Golden State first needs to overcome the quick turnaround to the play-in tournament after an exhausting finish to the regular season.
10) New York Knicks
The New York Knicks had one of the five best records in the NBA for most of the season and still finished third in the East despite a late-season slide and Jalen Brunson’s 15-game absence with an ankle injury. However, it’s impossible to ignore New York’s ghastly 0-10 record against the Cavaliers, Celtics, and Thunder, with only three of those losses coming by single digits.
That’s a reflection of an unfortunate truth: because of how Tom Thibodeau treats the regular season as if it’s the playoffs, the Knicks don’t have another gear to hit when the actual playoffs arrive. No team gets fewer points or minutes per game from its bench, and the Knicks’ preferred starting lineup of Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, O.G. Anunoby, and Towns has played more minutes than any lineup this season by a wide margin.
Brunson’s prolonged absence makes this even more astounding. It certainly paid off with regular-season success, as the Knicks do look like a team that could do some damage on paper. New York finished fifth in offensive efficiency and improved to an above-average efficiency in defense. Teams with that profile have made deep runs and typically don’t have a hard ceiling of the second round.
Of course, teams can usually shorten their rotation to raise their ceiling in the playoffs, which isn’t really the case with the Knicks. Perhaps Thibodeau surprises and throws a curveball, such as playing more double-big lineups (Towns and Mitchell Robinson shared the court for just 47 minutes in the regular season). But that feels unlikely given his track record, so the Knicks must rely on catching a big break to advance further than one round.
11) Indiana Pacers
While they might be hard-pressed to match last year’s Eastern Conference Finals result, the Pacers are a better team than the one that made it to the NBA’s version of the Final Four in 2024. After a wretched 10-15 start, the Pacers finished the season 40-17, the fourth-best record behind only the Big Three of the Thunder, Cavaliers, and Celtics.
Tyrese Haliburton’s resurgence has coincided with that improvement. Haliburton didn’t make the All-Star Game but has a real All-NBA case after averaging 20.6 points and 11.0 assists per game since the All-Star Break. Indiana has a sparkling 2.5 assist-to-turnover ratio with Haliburton on the court this year, which would lead the NBA over a full season.
The Pacers are still a roughly league-average defense, which could limit their ceiling if their playoff competition has better health than the Bucks and Knicks did last year. However, Indiana’s offense will be extremely difficult to contain in any series, and a Pacers-Cavaliers series specifically could deliver an exciting level of fireworks if it materializes.
12) Milwaukee Bucks
All things are possible with Giannis Antetokounmpo. The two-time MVP has as large an individual burden to carry as any player in the entire playoffs, save perhaps Jokic. Milwaukee’s roster has been riddled with injuries and a midseason trade that sent franchise icon Khris Middleton packing, leaving Giannis to handle an enormous offensive burden.
How the Bucks survive the non-Giannis minutes will be key to their playoff fate. Milwaukee recorded a +7.2 net rating with Antetokounmpo on the court in the regular season, which would have been the fourth-best of any team overall (behind the Thunder, Cavaliers, and Celtics). That plummeted to -4.2 when Giannis sat, which would have been roughly equivalent to what the Toronto Raptors posted the whole year.
A healthy return for Damian Lillard would make an enormous difference, though that outlook seems hazy at best. Giannis alone makes Milwaukee’s first-round series vs. the Pacers a toss-up, but their frenetic pace would also put a significant physical toll on the Greek Freak.
More likely, the Bucks have enough to bruise any opponent but not enough secondary scoring to actually make a run if Lillard doesn’t return. Their 0-10 record against the top three seeds in the East bodes poorly for Milwaukee’s prospects of winning multiple rounds. Fair or not, an early playoff exit would make Giannis’ future with the organization one of the top stories of the offseason, despite his consistent reaffirmations of loyalty.
13) Detroit Pistons
One of the best Cinderella stories in recent years, the Detroit Pistons have enjoyed a successful season no matter the outcome of their first-round series vs. the Knicks. Sure, the Pistons would like to get their first playoff win since the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals after their last three playoff appearances all resulted in sweeps. But a once-lost franchise looks like an ascending contender, one of the starkest changes for any team’s outlook from the start of the year.
On paper, the Pistons should be a viable threat to the Knicks. Detroit’s physicality allowed the Pistons to post a top-10 defensive rating, including a top-10 turnovers forced rate. That allowed them to rank seventh in points off turnovers per game and second in fast break points per game, key easy buckets to boost a middling halfcourt offense.
Typically, that style of play doesn’t translate as easily to the playoffs, where teams are better at slowing the pace and taking care of the ball. But the Pistons’ chaotic style is difficult to match game-to-game, and there’s always the chance that playoff inexperience actually frees up Detroit’s young stars.
Cade Cunningham was very comfortable against the Knicks this year (30.8 PPG, 8.3 APG, and a 56.3% FG%), so the Pistons’ upset chances shouldn’t be discounted.
14) Memphis Grizzlies
Taylor Jenkins’ dismissal was overshadowed by an even more shocking head coach firing in Michael Malone a few days later. However, in the case of the Grizzlies, their coaching change looks more like a move for the future, as this doesn’t seem like a team capable of making much of a run.
The Grizzlies have faltered against a much tougher second-half schedule. Memphis holds a meager 16-26 record against teams with a .500 or better record this season. That’s the second-worst mark of any of the top-10 teams in the West, ahead of only the Mavericks.
Sloppiness has done Memphis in against better opponents. The Grizzlies are a bottom-10 team by turnover rate, and only the tanking Washington Wizards and Utah Jazz have allowed more points off turnovers per game than Memphis this season. For all his spectacular offensive moments, Ja Morant averaged nearly 12 turnovers per 100 possessions, his highest rate since his rookie season in 2019-20.
Memphis will be a road underdog in its first play-in game at Golden State, though the Grizzlies should be large home favorites against the Mavericks-Kings winner. Regardless, Memphis’ most likely fate is an unceremonious first-round exit against the Thunder, a disappointing reality for a team that threatened for the No. 2 seed for much of the season.
15) Orlando Magic
One of the most lopsided playoff contenders in recent memory, the Orlando Magic would probably look more threatening as a football team with a singular elite unit. Instead, their combination of a bottom-five offense and top-five defense makes them a nuisance to play against, but one that should probably exit the playoffs quickly.
Quite simply, there’s really no way for the Magic to survive in the modern NBA with their lack of spacing. Orlando finished the regular season shooting 31.8% from three — the worst by any team since the 2015-16 Lakers.
Even with a pair of highly regarded young stars in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Orlando hasn’t found a workable combination. The Magic’s offensive rating of 110.4 with both on the court would rank only 24th, roughly equivalent to what the Jazz recorded this season. Orlando is sixth in points off turnovers due to its stifling defense, but that’s going to be an unreliable formula against either Boston or Cleveland.
Overall, while it’s promising the Magic haven’t backslid into the lottery despite a spate of injuries, this season will be a disappointment if it ends in a quick first-round exit. Moving forward, generating even league-average offense could vault Orlando into a serious threat to contend in the East.
16) Atlanta Hawks
At worst, the Atlanta Hawks will host a game for the right to make the playoffs. Still, it’s hard to envision much of a path forward for this team given that it is below average in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
The Hawks’ best trait is their team ball movement. Atlanta finished the season fifth in assist rate, a byproduct of playing at the third-fastest pace in the NBA. However, that pace came with a cost, as the Hawks also had the ninth-highest turnover rate, as they were frequently unable to play under control.
Dyson Daniels gives the Hawks a fighting chance against any team that relies on ball-dominant perimeter players, which could be the case if they run into the Bulls in the play-in.
Atlanta had a shocking amount of regular-season success against the Cavaliers and Celtics, going 2-1 against both teams. That won’t prevent Atlanta from being enormous underdogs in either matchup, though perhaps it indicates that a six- or seven-game series isn’t totally out of the question.
17) Chicago Bulls
How much stock can you put in late regular-season basketball? The answer to that question likely determines your stance on whether the Chicago Bulls are real threats to make their first playoff appearance in three years or whether they’re doomed to a third straight play-in exit.
Since March 6, the Bulls have gone 15-5, good for the sixth-best record in the NBA over that span. Once a methodical defense-first team, the Bulls have leaned heavily into the 3-ball, with only the Celtics and Warriors taking a higher percentage of their shots from deep.
The results of that experiment have been mixed, as Chicago was still a below-average team in offensive efficiency thanks to a barely average 37.1% mark from 3. However, Josh Giddey’s post-All-Star Break surge has given the Bulls a very dangerous backcourt duo with Coby White, who is averaging nearly 26 points per game since the break.
The Bulls will still need to win a pair of games to reach the playoffs, including one on the road if they can finally vanquish Miami. The road would almost certainly end there against a Cavaliers team that swept them in four regular-season matchups, and the real question is whether Chicago would be better served testing its lottery luck in a loaded draft class.
18) Miami Heat
Even after a franchise-record 153 points in their penultimate regular season game, the Miami Heat are one of the weaker offenses remaining. Those limitations in the wake of the Jimmy Butler trade ultimately limit the Heat’s ceiling and will make it difficult for Miami to reach a sixth consecutive postseason.
The Heat have rallied since their 10-game losing streak, going 9-4 with impressive wins over the Warriors and Celtics. However, Miami still ranks only 20th in offensive efficiency since trading away Butler, including 29th in free throw rate without Butler’s foul-drawing prowess.
Any Erik Spoelstra-coached team is a threat to win a single game, and the Heat have gotten the better of the Bulls in two consecutive years in their now-annual play-in tradition. If Miami can get a couple of hot shooting nights from the likes of Tyler Herro and Andrew Wiggins to complement their still-solid defense, it wouldn’t be the biggest shock for the Heat to become the first No. 10 seed to advance into the playoffs.
19) Sacramento Kings
The Kings are just 16-19 since Feb. 1, which coincides with the De’Aaron Fox trade. Much of that stretch came without Domantas Sabonis, and the Kings are nearly 5.5 points per 100 possessions better with Sabonis on the court compared to when he’s on the bench.
If the Kings are to make it out of the play-in tournament, it’ll likely be on the strength of their offense. Sacramento was again a top-10 team in offensive efficiency and bottom-10 in defense. Against less disruptive defenses, the Kings should fare well executing in the halfcourt, as they had the sixth-lowest turnover rate in the regular season to help overcome relatively average shooting figures.
It’s just that their margin for error is so small, thanks in part to their shot profile. No team attempts more mid-range field goals per game, a byproduct of having DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine as primary offensive creators. As a result, only five teams get a lower percentage of their points from 3, limiting this offense’s ceiling even while the floor is fairly high.
The Kings stay out of the basement of these Power Rankings since they have homecourt in the 9-10 play-in game vs. the Mavericks, who they swept in three regular-season matchups.
20) Dallas Mavericks
The most heartbreaking season any fan base has endured in recent years will end soon. Nico Harrison’s vision of a massive, defense-first team hasn’t had a chance to take hold due to injuries. Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis ended up sharing the court for a total of 25 minutes, playing just a single game together due to injuries.
That leaves the Mavs’ non-Luka vision on hold. Since February 2 (the day of the Dončić-Davis trade), the Mavericks rank 24th in defensive efficiency, the worst of any of the 20 teams still alive. It looks better if you isolate it to just since March 24 (when Davis returned to the lineup), but Dallas is still just 14th in defensive efficiency in that span.
Ultimately, the Mavs will have a chance to re-tool and find real point guard depth so that Spencer Dinwiddie and Naji Marshall aren’t forced to run the offense. With Irving likely to miss most (if not all) of next season with a torn ACL, it’s an open question whether Dallas will ever get a chance to roll out the Irving-Davis partnership they envisioned.