As the postseason progresses, margins tighten and the variance of outcomes increases. In Round 1, there were a handful of series that were complete mismatches; we have less of that, and that impacts our most recent NBA Playoff Rankings.
The top tier isn’t going to surprise you, but the order of teams has fluctuated over the past two weeks, and that sets the stage for some very entertaining series!
1) Oklahoma City Thunder
Just because it’s obvious doesn’t make it wrong.
The Oklahoma City Thunder entered the season loaded with talent, remain loaded with talent, and project to be even better in the coming seasons. They are led by the presumptive MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and they have a clean bill of health and efficiently took care of Memphis to eliminate any rest excuses.
Oklahoma City has been the title favorites for the majority of the season, and their well-rounded roster makes them capable of beating any opponent in a variety of ways. The Thunder had a borderline historic regular season, and I don’t think it’s out of the question that we could see something similar this postseason when all is said and done.
2) Boston Celtics
The defending champions are just as good, if not better, than they were a season ago. The Jayson Tatum/Jaylen Brown tandem averaged over 54 points in Round 1 against the second-best defense in the NBA. Payton Pritchard has taken a tremendous step forward this season, and Kristaps Porziņģis, outside of an instance where blood was streaming down from his forehead, is in good health.
They’ve blended proven talent with big-time buy-in to math (eighth in opponent 3-point rate and easily the top rate on the offensive end), a combination that wins in 2025. I think their ceiling is on par with the Thunder, but the Orlando Magic did enough in the opening series to have me believe that the floor is considerably lower.
MORE: Jaylen Brown Drops Massive Injury Update Ahead of Celtics’ Game 1 Clash vs. Knicks
A disciplined Orlando team succeeded in running Boston off the 3-point line, keeping them competitive through 24 minutes in every game. New York is no pushover, but the Celtics will face similarly elite defenses should they survive this series and chalk holds. However, other top threats in the East are supported by productive offenses that can turn a Celtics scoring drought into a massive deficit.
This team is labeled as the favorite to represent the East in the NBA Finals, and they should be. They aren’t perfect, but they do have valuable experience that some of the two teams I think meet in the Western Conference Finals don’t.
3) Cleveland Cavaliers
Darius Garland’s value to this team has become clearer over the past 7-10 days, and if he is limited for the remainder of the season, they will have a hard time living up to this ranking.
Ty Jerome has had a great season, and I thought he showed just fine for himself in the Game 1 loss to Indiana (15 of his 20 shots came in the paint, a level of controlled aggression that complements Donovan Mitchell well if he can make a 3-point shot once in a while).
When this team is at full strength, he adds a dimension of depth that allows this team to win the minutes when their stars rest, a luxury only the top two teams consistently have.
Evan Mobley is embracing his stardom by showcasing the versatility needed, given the elite teams’ strengths, and he holds the key for Cleveland to make a surprise run to glory this summer.
After losing three straight in late January, Cleveland won four straight, outscoring the opposition by 104 points. They then lost to the Celtics in a game where they won the final three quarters by six points before rattling off 16 straight wins.
I’m writing off Game 1 as a blip on the radar and fully expect this team to be in a dog fight for the right to represent the East in the NBA Finals.
4) Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards is developing before our eyes, and the elite names he has eliminated in the postseason at this point in his career are as good as you could possibly ask. The 26.8 points he averaged against the Lakers was impressive given that their lone defensive plan was to not allow him to destroy them, but the 5.2 assist-to-turnover ratio was what caught my eye.
He’s elevating to another level before our eyes, and it’s a joy to watch. If we copy/paste the production of his supporting cast moving forward, this team can 100% make a title run.
I’m just not confident we can do that.
Julius Randle (22.6 points on 48.1% FG, 39.3% 3P, and 83.9% FT) had an out-of-body experience against a Lakers team that owns the 17th-ranked defense. I’m happy for him, but asking him to do anything close to that again is more than I’m comfortable with. If seeding holds, Minnesota has to beat three top-seven defenses to win a title.
I think this team has a higher floor than Golden State, namely because of my confidence in Jaden McDaniels (17.4 PPG in Round 1) and Naz Reid — unofficially the best flat-footed, wide-open shooter from 25-30 feet that has ever walked this planet — but asking them to go through the top seed in either conference, let alone both of them, is a step I’m not willing to take.
5) New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson has looked like an unguardable force for much of this season, and that was certainly the case in the Round 1 win over the Detroit Pistons (31.5 points and 8.2 assists per game), but does a single star (28.2% of their shot attempts against Detroit) get it done over the next month-plus?
I don’t think it does.
Karl-Anthony Towns has made just 44.7% of his shots over his past five games, racking up 16 fouls over his most recent three appearances. How confident can you really be in him as the co-star?
OG Anunoby is a valuable asset and brings elite defense to the table, but he’s a limited offensive option with four assists in 252 minutes against the Pistons and is streaky with his jump shot. Meanwhile, Mikal Bridges was held to single-digit points twice by a Detroit defense that was sending its resources elsewhere.
You’ll notice that I weigh depth heavily in these rankings, and New York supports its starters with nothing more than heat-check guards and a one-dimensional big in Mitchell Robinson.
This is the exact type of team that runs out of upside at this point. They are a good team in a league that has three 60-win teams still standing, two of which share a conference with the Knicks.
6) Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets have the best player in the world.
That’s lazy analysis, and it’s the first line you always here when digesting content around them. It’s not wrong, but it’s also not as predictive of postseason success as it used to be. In the 1990s and early 2000s, if you had Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, or Tim Duncan, you were almost penciled into the NBA’s final four.
We now have a league full of elite playmakers, where a single star, even one as great as Nikola Jokić, assures you of nothing more than a playoff berth. Denver has the perfect Robin to Jokić’s Batman in Jamal Murray, a confident guard with postseason chops, but after that, we are looking at a limited roster loaded with either injured players or ones with a hilariously wide range of outcomes.
I’m not talking about game-to-game outcome ranges — I’m not sure what Russell Westbrook’s next dribble is going to bring, and neither does he. This team has enough raw talent that, if functioning at full capacity, could make a true run, but that’s not the version we currently have.
With Aaron Gordon limping and Michael Porter Jr.’s shoulder dangling, there is too much pressure put on Westbrook, Christian Braun, and others to play one, two, or three levels above their mean expectation.
Can they harness their upside for a 48-minute window against the league’s bully? Sure, but I’m ranking these teams based on their ability to win the final game of the NBA season, and that path simply doesn’t exist in my opinion.
7) Indiana Pacers
I had this team ranked seventh in my preliminary rankings going into the weekend — and then I watched them steal homecourt from the Cavaliers.
I still have this team ranked seventh.
Tyrese Haliburton is in the midst of a great run (just ask his father), and I think he can be the point guard of a team that wins its conference one day. I just don’t think it’s coming this year.
Looking at the rosters as a whole, I think Cleveland has two of the top three players in this series and four of the top six. Should they advance and play Boston, would the Celtics not have four of the top five?
The Pacers overwhelmed the Bucks in the first round, and they deserve credit for that, but that series should have been heading back to Milwaukee, Wis., for Game 6 even against a decimated team.
Pascal Siakam has a championship pedigree and is playing at a high level, but there’s a talent gap after that when you line up this roster against the others remaining in the East. Myles Turner will have his moments, but he’s a glorified Brook Lopez at this point, posting a career-high in 3-point rate and posting rebound numbers well below his standard.
I love the fluidity with which this team plays and its desire to pass up good shots for great ones. I understand that their defense has looked better since the All-Star break, but I still worry some on that front, especially if their stingy non-Haliburton guards are cold on the other end and/or are handicapped by foul trouble.
The Pacers need Haliburton to function as a superhero, and he’s plenty capable (22 points, 60% FG, 13 assists, and one turnover in Game 1 against the Cavaliers), but when the game is on the line, where does he stack up in your bring-the-ball-up-and-generate-a-great-look rankings?
For me, every remaining team has a stronger option, and that’s supposed to be Indiana’s strength. I truly believe that the Pacers can beat any remaining team in a single game, but this isn’t March Madness; I’m not confident I would pick them in a series over any of these teams due to their high-possession style of play, despite a lack of high-floor offensive options.
8) Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry’s greatness was on full display on Sunday, May 4, as the Golden State Warriors advanced past the Houston Rockets in Game 7 and counting him out is terrifying.
But I’m doing it.
The gravity he creates is unlike anything we’ve seen in the history of the sport, but there is a lot of smoke and mirrors in this team profile. I could dive deep into all the numbers you’d like (from the limitations of this offense to Curry and Jimmy Butler III’s minutes/usage), but instead, I’m going to keep this simple.
- They don’t know their own rotation
- They rely on playing the game in the mud
With the season on the line, Steve Kerr played four players 40+ minutes and used Moses Moody and Kevon Looney as Band-Aids to try to cover for 3-5 minute stretches. The deeper you go into the grind of the postseason, the more concerning a lack of depth becomes. If it goes the distance, six of their seven games would come with only a single day of rest, and that’s a tough sell with their three core players all past their physical prime.
In this era of chuck-and-duck offenses, variance is the best way to pull off a big upset. We saw Buddy Hield get hot on Sunday night, but in large, this team wants to limit the possession count and place a ton of value on efficiency. That’s bringing a spoon to a gun fight, given the level of talent left in the postseason.
If they can push this Minnesota series to a sixth game, I think they’ve done well for themselves.
