It’s always a challenge trying to figure out what Arthur Smith will do with his backfield. All three Pittsburgh Steelers running backs saw touches last week. Should fantasy football managers put Najee Harris or Jaylen Warren in Week 2 lineups? Is Cordarrelle Patterson possibly a deep-league option as well?
Should You Start Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, or Cordarrelle Patterson This Week?
Heading into the season, two schools of thought were duking it out inside my brain. On the one hand, Arthur Smith clearly likes a classic two-down grinder. That’s Najee Harris. He looks like the type of back Smith would want to lean on.
On the other hand, Harris is the guy with first-round draft capital. Last season, Smith made it a point to avoid giving the ball to Bijan Robinson seemingly out of spite against literally every other person in the football world who wanted him to. After one week, it sure looks like the first thought was the right one.
This week, the PFN Start/Sit Optimizer says Harris is the start to make, with 12.2 projected PPR points compared to Warren’s 6.6 and Patterson’s 4.5.
Harris dominated Week 1 touches, handling 77% of them in the Steelers’ backfield. He carried the ball 20 times for 70 yards.
While Harris is startable, last season, Warren was the better fantasy asset, averaging slightly more fantasy points per game. In Week 1, Warren only saw four opportunities all game. Unless his usage increases, Warren needs to be left on fantasy benches.
Finally, we have Patterson. Smith’s favorite. The 33-year-old running back matched Warren’s touch count with four, but only played nine snaps. I don’t think you need me to tell you that anyone playing nine snaps belongs far, far away from fantasy lineups.
Harris’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
This is a great matchup for Harris against a Denver Broncos defense that was one of the worst at defending the run last season, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They didn’t look any better in Week 1, surrendering 103 yards on 20 attempts to Kenneth Walker III.
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With the Steelers once again unlikely to face a negative game script, they can do what they do best and lean on the run. That means a whole lot of Harris. He is a good bet to find the end zone for the first time this season and can be confidently started as a fantasy RB2.
Warren’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
There will come a time when Warren is a worthwhile fantasy option. Curiously, he’s not listed at all on Pittsburgh’s injury report, especially in light of Mike Tomlin’s comments that Warren is very clearly not quite fully recovered from his preseason hamstring strain.
I don’t believe Warren is being phased out of this offense. His limited playing time and touches last week have more to do with his health than his talent or role. As Warren continues to get healthier, he should see more work.
Last season, the Steelers backfield was pretty much an even timeshare. While there’s no guarantee it will reach that point this season, Warren should be a good bet for 8-10 touches a game once he gets completely over his hamstring issue. However, fantasy managers should not put him in lineups until we have confirmation.
Patterson’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Even though Smith loves Patterson, it’s hard not to view any Patterson playing time beyond a handful of plays as a product of Warren’s health. Once Warren is capable of playing his usual 40-50% complement of snaps, Patterson should see his usage reduced from what is already a minimal role.
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Patterson is only rostered in 1% of Yahoo leagues for a reason. He is not even remotely close to being relevant enough to even roster, let alone start.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Harris and Warren
Najee Harris: If you’ve played in the same league for a while, the odds are good that everyone has had their turn rostering Harris, plugging him in as an unsatisfying RB2, and moving on with their life. It’s a right of passage. And once every manager in your league has shared that experience, you’ve formed a bond.
Sadly, nothing is different this time around. With a compromised Warren, Harris wasn’t any different than you would have guessed – he just did it on a few more touches.
Harris accounted for 20 of 26 Pittsburgh running back carries and, if not for an outlier 20-yard “burst,” we are looking at a 19-carry, 50-yard day at the office along with two catches for nine yards.
If that’s not vintage Harris, I don’t know what is.
With Warren still at far less than full strength and the Steelers facing the Broncos and their blitzing, I’d expect something very similar this week.
Against the Falcons, Harris finished as RB35 in fantasy points and RB19 in expected points. Split the difference; move him up a few spots for the safety of his role and poor matchups for others – yep, an unappealing RB2 for the 47th consecutive week.
Jaylen Warren: Mike Tomlin admitted on Tuesday that he wasn’t close to labeling Warren as fully healthy, and considering that this is a rotation that is hard to trust in the best case, that rules him out of all Flex decisions.
Warren’s explosive play potential pairs better with Fields than Wilson, so that potential development leaves me with long-term hope that we can get Flex production as the season wears on.
Hold onto Warren with the understanding that you can gloss over him when piecing together your Week 2 lineup.