Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris enters his fourth NFL season with some impressive counting numbers, but the efficiency has been nothing more than ordinary and Jaylen Warren remains a serious threat.
With a new coaching staff in place, not to mention a lack of clarity under center, how should fantasy football managers approach Harris and his late-sixth-round ADP?
Najee Harris’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Harris is a good example of the growth of the fantasy industry. If we took Harris’ hard-nosed profile back 15 years, he’d be exactly the type of running back we’d overextend on. Back then, volume and role were prioritized even more, essentially driving our every decision.
We wouldn’t have struggled to overlook Harris’ significant dip in involvement in the passing game (74 catches as a rookie, 41 in 2022, and just 29 a season ago). The fact that his target count has failed to meet his catch total from the previous season in consecutive years wouldn’t have crossed our minds.
imo this is the best that Najee Harris has looked as a pro.
Eight preseason touches: pic.twitter.com/JwOCS2HV5u
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 20, 2024
Digging deeper into stats that weren’t as available back then – Harris is averaging roughly 2.0 yards per carry before and after contact through three seasons. Those are viable rates, but nothing special — that is how Harris is now viewed. His volume has served as his saving grace, and with it seemingly dwindling, we might be nearing the time for a complete fade.
Harris is being drafted in the RB20 range, a neighborhood that Aaron Jones and Rhamondre Stevenson both live in. To be honest, I’m targeting the onesie positions around Round 6 (Evan Engram, Joe Burrow, or Kyler Murray) instead of forcing it with the running back position.
Is Harris a Good Fantasy Pick?
The moving piece in the profile of Harris is the health of Warren. Reports have surfaced that the hamstring injury Warren suffered in mid-August may not hold him out of any regular-season action, but if you’ve played any form of fantasy sports long enough, you know that these soft-tissue issues rarely just disappear.
Harris was a top-24 RB in nine of 13 weeks to close last fantasy season and that’s encouraging, but the fact that he was better than RB12 on just twice of those occasions speaks to a lack of ceiling.
He is currently being drafted in the same tier as other volume dependent backs in Zamir White and Stevenson, a range that I think is accurate but also one I’m perfectly OK avoiding altogether in favor of the receivers typically available at that point (Tank Dell, Terry McLaurin, and Christian Kirk).
Beyond a “boring” profile, the Harris fade comes with some schedule support.
- Week 11 vs. Ravens
- Week 12 at Browns
- Week 13 at Bengals
- Week 14 vs. Browns
- Week 15 at Eagles
- Week 16 at Ravens
- Week 17 vs. Chiefs
Notice anything?
Of the final seven games pf the fantasy season, five come against stingy defenses while the other two come against elite offenses that figure to carry game-script concerns for Harris.
I’m not drafting Harris on any sort of consistent basis, and if I do, it’s an effort to sell high. If Warren is at less that full strength early, maybe Harris takes advantage of the lighter portion of the schedule (September: Falcons, Broncos, Chargers, and Colts) to improve his stock to that of a top-20 back.
I’d be shorting that stock before the final whistle of Week 4.