Both Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris and Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery are coming off their best games of the season in Week 3. So what does that mean when it comes to choosing between the two for fantasy football managers in their Week 4 lineups?
Here’s a look at the fantasy outlook for each running back.
Should You Start Najee Harris or David Montgomery This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Harris is the player to start. His projected 11.7 points include 53 rushing yards, two receptions, and 14 receiving yards. That stat line narrowly outperforms the consensus for Montgomery (11.5 points, 52 rushing yards, two receptions, and 14 receiving yards)
My ranking of these two running backs aligns with the consensus. Montgomery has been more productive this season, but Harris is also facing one of the league’s worst defenses, so his numbers should increase even more in Week 4.
Harris’ Week 4 Fantasy Outlook
On the surface, Harris has had a fairly unproductive season, in terms of fantasy production. He has yet to approach 100 rushing yards in a game (season-high is 70, twice) and he hasn’t scored a touchdown in any of his first three games. So why should fantasy managers look to Harris to have a better Week 4 than the more productive Montgomery?
Harris is coming off his most productive game of the season last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, rushing for 70 yards and catching five passes (albeit for only 16 yards). He finished with 13.6 fantasy points.
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He finished with a season-high in touches last week (23), and that should only increase with the news that backup running back Jaylen Warren will be out with a knee injury. That should not only benefit Harris and fantasy managers but the Steelers as well.
Pittsburgh hasn’t lost a game when Harris had at least 20 touches since Week 10 of the 2022 season. The Steelers have won the last nine such games, including twice this season.
The other factor working in Harris’s favor is the Steelers’ Week 4 opponent, the Indianapolis Colts. No team has been run against more (opponents are averaging 40.3 rush attempts per game) and no team has allowed more rushing yards (179 yards per game) than the Colts. If there was ever a time for Harris to have his best game of the season, it is this Sunday.
Montgomery’s Week 4 Fantasy Outlook
When you compare the numbers for the season, there is no legitimate reason for fans of Montgomery to suddenly change their perspective of the Lions’ running back. Like Harris, Montgomery has his best game of the season in Week 3, with 105 rushing yards, a touchdown, and 21.5 fantasy points.
And, as Montgomery fans will likely point out, even his worst game this season in fantasy production — 16.3 points in Week 1 — was still far better than Harris’ best game. Montgomery has also scored a rushing touchdown in each game this season and is one of only three players (Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams the others) to do so.
So while there is certainly nothing wrong with choosing Montgomery over Harris this week — PFN’s Start/Sit tool shows just how close the matchup is — I’m willing to take a chance that Harris will enjoy a little more success against an inferior defense.