Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris has gone from fantasy football RB1 to touchdown-or-bust RB3. With a new coaching staff and new quarterback(s), can Harris return to being at least an RB2 in 2024? If so, would that make him a player to target in Best Ball drafts?
Najee Harris’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
It seems so long ago that Harris finished as the overall RB6, averaging 17.7 fantasy points per game as a rookie. It’s been a precipitous decline since then.
Harris has largely been the same player his entire career. He’s averaged 3.9, 3.8, and 4.1 yards per carry in each of his three seasons. His touchdown counts have been 10, 10, and eight. Yet, his fantasy points per game went from 17.7 to 13.2 to 11.5. So, what caused the decline?
#Steelers RB Najee Harris leads all rookie backs in scrimmage yards (830), rush yards (541) & TDs (6) this season.#HereWeGopic.twitter.com/THCJOcF9bM
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365)
As a rookie, Harris got to play with a very much finished Ben Roethlisberger. This version of the future Hall of Famer could not push the ball downfield at all. As a result, he checked it down to Harris over and over again.
Harris saw a 14.5% target share as a rookie. He only averaged 1.1 yards per route run because he’s never been efficient. But for fantasy, who cares? Harris caught 74 passes. He led all running backs in targets and receptions. Any running back catching that many passes is a lock to be at least a mid-RB2.
After Big Ben retired, though, the Steelers’ offense took a nosedive. Even the worst version of Roethlisberger was still better than Kenny Pickett.
Additionally, the Steelers signed Jaylen Warren as a UDFA in 2022. He is a much more natural pass catcher and earned that role. As a result, Harris’ target share cratered, falling to 9.7%. Last season, it fell even further to 7.9%.
The ironic part of Harris fading into random RB3 oblivion is he actually had his best year as a runner in 2023. Harris still only averaged 3.13 yards created per touch, 39th in the league, but 5.5% of his rushes went for 15+ yards. That was the 10th-highest rate in the league. He also had a 20.1% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate, 22nd in the league.
Should You Draft Harris in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
The Steelers’ offense should be better this season. All three quarterbacks from last year’s roster are gone. Replacing them are Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. By no means are either of these guys top quarterbacks. But they both are sizable upgrades on Pickett/Mitch Trubisky/Mason Rudolph.
The Steelers scored a mere 29 offensive touchdowns last season. That number should be higher with improved QB play. The QB upgrade should also allow them to sustain more drives, resulting in more opportunities for Harris. It wouldn’t surprise me if he scored 12 times this season.
It also helps that new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith wants to run, run, and run some more. Smith’s Falcons offense ran the ball 49% of the time in a neutral game script last season. As OC of the Titans, they were also around 50%. The Steelers are going to run the ball a lot.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Fantasy RB Rankings 2024
If Wilson is better than expected — or more likely when he inevitably gets benched for Fields, the former Bear is better than expected — and Harris could end up being a little bit more valuable than he was last season.
With that said Harris is currently being drafted just inside the top 24 running backs. Although he’s a starting running back in the NFL, that price feels pretty close to his ceiling.
Without an improvement in receiving work, which we absolutely should not expect given his two quarterbacks, Harris’ only real path to outperforming last year’s numbers is touchdowns. At best, he’s probably finishing around RB18-20. As a result, I will be passing on Harris in Best Ball drafts.
