Myles Gaskin’s Fantasy Outlook 2021: Will he be Miami’s lead back this year?

As the likely leading RB on what should be an improved Miami offense, should you draft Myles Gaskin with his fantasy outlook and ADP in 2021?

Despite being considered a landing spot for a top running back all offseason, the Miami Dolphins head into the 2021 NFL season led by Myles Gaskin. As he moves into his third season, should fantasy football managers trust Myles Gaskin, or does his fantasy outlook suggest looking for other options with a similar ADP?

Myles Gaskin’s fantasy outlook for 2021

The biggest winner of the NFL offseason for fantasy football was not a rookie — it was Miami Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin. Every week from the start of free agency to the draft, it seemed inevitable that the Dolphins would replace him. Welp, apparently not. 

Gaskin was a revelation in 2020, as he destroyed his RB44 ADP. From Weeks 1 through 8, Gaskin was the RB17 while averaging 14.1 PPR points per game. This included the first two weeks where the Dolphins had a revolving door in the backfield. Gaskin was the RB28 in PPR but 13th in points per game (16.4 PPR).

Here are some fun stats:

  • Gaskin was ninth in touches per game at 18.3, which was more than Alvin Kamara (18.0).
  • He was tied for sixth in targets per game at 4.7 and was on pace for 1,000 yards and 70 receptions — that’s Austin Ekeler territory. 

The only issue for Gaskin was he played just 10 games due to a stint on the IR (knee) and two weeks due to NFL protocols. However, if he gets that kind of volume in 2021, Gaskin has a fantasy outlook of a mid-RB2. Even with the addition of Malcolm Brown in free agency, Gaskin in PPR formats is a solid draft selection after winning the offseason.

Myles Gaskin’s fantasy projection

Gaskin dodged more bullets than The Matrix trilogy combined in the offseason. He is, in fact, “The One” — for Miami at least.

There is the question of how much Brown might eat into Gaskin’s snap count. While he might not see the 88% of his peak (Week 8), Gaskin did all of this on just 69% of the snaps. Outside of his 2020 season with 33 targets, Brown’s previous high in five seasons was 11. So, if Gaskin maintains his role as the receiving back, he could afford to lose a few carries while not seeing his projections and value hampered too much by Brown.

Even while seeing a slightly reduced carry share (63% from 67%), Gaskin could end the season with around 205 to 210 carries for nearly 900 yards and 6 touchdowns. As the leading passing back (11% target share), he would be in line for 50 to 55 receptions, 400 yards, and 1 to 2 more touchdowns. 

Given how he was left for dead in the offseason, you would be ecstatic for 1,300 total yards and 8 touchdowns.

Myles Gaskin’s fantasy ADP

According to Sleeper, Gaskin is currently the RB26 with an ADP of 60.7 in PPR. According to NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Gaskin is the RB27 with a 67.7 ADP.

Should you draft Gaskin in 2021 for fantasy?

When I look at the ADP, it feels like fantasy managers are drafting with the notion that Gaskin was either A) a fluke or B) an inflated value of Brown. Perhaps it is a bit of both.

I would feel comfortable with Gaskin as my RB2, let alone my RB3. That’s fantastic value, so long as Tua Tagovailoa takes the step forward we believe he can. As an RB3 on your roster, that eliminates the risk of a potential shift in philosophy from Chan Gailey to Eric Studesville and George Godsey as co-offensive coordinators.

To me, the fact the Dolphins chose not to bring in an Aaron Jones or marquee rookie like Javonte Williams during the draft speaks more than any “coachspeak” ever could. The Dolphins appear confident in Gaskin for 2021, and I will follow suit for fantasy.

Tommy Garrett is a writer for Pro Football Network covering the NFL and fantasy football and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.

Tommy Garrett is a Fantasy Analyst for Pro Football Network and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). You can read all of Tommy’s work here, listen to him on PFN’s Fantasy Football podcast, and check out his contributions in PFN’s free fantasy newsletter. Give him a follow on Twitter: @TommyGarrettPFN.

RELATED
FANTASY
NFL
RELATED POSTS