The Minnesota Vikings enter Week 18 against the Chicago Bears having secured their playoff spot and nearly locked in place on their seeding. The Bears will be playing Nathan Peterman instead of Justin Fields, and Vegas moved the lines to give the Vikings more than a touchdown advantage as a result.
But Minnesota may not put their best foot forward for the entire 60 minutes. Not only is it possible that they could pull far enough ahead of Chicago that they consider resting starters for the playoffs, but there’s also an unclear seeding scenario to consider — one that might mean a loss in Week 18 is as good as a win. Here are the Vikings’ playoff scenarios.
Minnesota Vikings Seed Scenarios | Vikings Path to the No. 2 Seed
The Vikings can either earn the second seed or third seed, depending on the outcome of the Week 18 games.
Vikings secure second seed if:
- Win vs. Bears
- San Francisco 49ers tie or lose
OR
- If Vikings tie
- 49ers lose
That means the Vikings stay at the third seed if:
- Lose vs. Bears
OR
- 49ers win
OR
- Vikings tie
- 49ers tie or win
The Vikings don’t control their destiny in this regard. With a win, they need the 49ers to tie or lose in order to secure the second seed and home-field advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs. On top of that, the two seed would mean that they would have first bite at home-field advantage in the conference championship if the Eagles falter on the way to the NFC Championship Game.
Vikings Potential Playoff Opponents
As the second seed, the Vikings could play either the Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, or the Detroit Lions.
The Green Bay Packers secure the seventh seed if:
- Win vs. Lions
The Seattle Seahawks secure the seventh seed if:
- Win vs. Rams
- Packers tie or lose
OR
- Seahawks tie
- Lions tie
- Washington Commanders lose or tie
The Detroit Lions secure the seventh seed if:
- Win vs. Packers
- Seahawks tie or lose
OR
- Lions tie
- Seahawks lose
OR
- Lions tie
- Seahawks tie
- Commanders win
As the third seed, the Vikings would play the New York Giants.
Minnesota Might Want the No. 3 Seed Instead of No. 2
This means that the Vikings might prefer to lose their second-round home-field advantage in favor of a better matchup in the Wild Card round. It’s possible that the seventh seed in the playoffs is a tougher opponent than the sixth seed. The Giants are locked into the No. 6 spot and, therefore, will play against the third-seeded team no matter what.
Despite their record, the Giants are not a particularly intimidating team. The Vikings not only beat them once already but did so late in the season, with little likely to change by the time the playoffs begin.
MORE: Dallas Cowboys Playoff Chances and Scenarios Week 18
On the other hand, the Vikings had trouble with both the Lions and Packers, who they split their series with. Detroit and Green Bay are both in the hunt for the No. 7 seed and, conveniently, play each other in Week 18.
The Lions would need some help from the Rams in the form of a win over the Seahawks. In order for Detroit to turn a win into a playoff appearance, they need Seattle to lose. That’s certainly within the realm of possibility and could mean another bad potential matchup for Minnesota.
The Lions put up a good fight in both of their games and won the second game by multiple scores. The Packers did even better by putting up 41 points and holding the Vikings to three points until backups started rotating in.
Early in the season, the Lions were relying on an unsustainable but explosive running game to put up points while much of their team was injured in Week 3. With many of their players returning from injury in the second half of the season on both sides of the ball, including rookie first-round pick Jameson Williams, the Lions are one of the few teams that are healthier now than in the first few weeks of NFL play.
With a healthier offensive and defensive line, a more flexible defense, and an offense tailored to the strengths of Jared Goff and the receiving corps, it could be tough to hold the Lions down — especially without matchup answers on defense.
If Green Bay wins, they earn the seventh seed regardless of the outcomes of the other games. The Vikings have every reason to believe that the Packers are more likely to show up as the team they were in Week 17 rather than the team they were in Week 1, in large part because Green Bay found a defensive adjustment that worked for them and because there has been increasing chemistry between Aaron Rodgers and his receivers.
While playing at home should resolve some of the problems they had in Lambeau, it’s clear that this Packers team is playing substantially different football compared to the squad a few weeks ago.
On top of that, a seventh-seeded Seahawks team could pose a bigger threat than a sixth-seeded Giants. While Seattle’s defense has been inconsistent this year, they are helmed by fundamentally talented players in their pair of rookie corners and linebacker Jordyn Brooks. That could be enough to slow down the Vikings’ offense enough for Geno Smith to outscore them against a sieve-like Minnesota defense.
While Smith has lost his luster compared to his early-season play, he’s still stringing together efficient games, even against top defenses like the New York Jets. Rookie running back Kenneth Walker III, the retooled offensive line, and the pair of Tyler Lockett (if he’s healthy) and DK Metcalf, could be more than enough to put pressure against Minnesota.
It’s unlikely that the Vikings change their approach in Week 18 to account for these scenarios. They’ll likely be focused on securing the win and hoping that they can use home-field advantage through the first two rounds to advance to the NFC Championship Game.
