New York Jets WR Mike Williams is coming off a lost season that ended early due to a torn ACL.
Away from the Chargers for the first time in his career, how will Williams mesh with Aaron Rodgers at QB? Will he see enough work opposite Garrett Wilson to be a factor in fantasy football leagues?
Should You Select Mike Williams at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 139th Overall (WR54)
- Overcoming Challenges: Mike Williams enters the 2024 season coming off a torn ACL and joining a new team for the first time in his career. At 30 years old, there are concerns about his ability to return to form, especially in a new environment.
- Target Share Uncertainty: Williams has been a solid WR2 in the past but now faces the challenge of commanding a significant target share opposite Garrett Wilson. His ability to maintain his previous production levels will depend heavily on his health and connection with Aaron Rodgers.
- ADP Analysis: Williams is currently being drafted as WR54, No. 139 overall. While there are younger players with more upside being drafted around him, Williams’ proven ability to produce when healthy makes him an intriguing option at this price point.
- Final Verdict: Williams offers potential value as a late-round pick, especially given his past production. However, his injury history and the uncertainty surrounding the Jets’ offense make him a risky but potentially rewarding selection in fantasy drafts.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Mike Williams
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Williams is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
48) Jameson Williams, WR | Detroit Lions
49) Jordan Addison, WR | Minnesota Vikings
50) Jakobi Meyers, WR | Las Vegas Raiders
51) Tyler Lockett, WR | Seattle Seahawks
52) Christian Watson, WR | Green Bay Packers
53) Mike Williams, WR | New York Jets
54) Josh Downs, WR | Indianapolis Colts
55) Romeo Doubs, WR | Green Bay Packers
56) Adonai Mitchell, WR | Indianapolis Colts
57) Brandin Cooks, WR | Dallas Cowboys
58) Jerry Jeudy, WR | Cleveland Browns
Mike Williams’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
After looking like a bust early in his career, Williams was able to overcome a dreadful rookie season to become a very respectable NFL WR2. In fantasy, he didn’t really make a meaningful impact until his fifth season when he averaged 15.4 fantasy points per game.
Williams followed that up with a solid 13.6 points per game in 2022, but missed four games due to injury. That was the start of Williams’ struggles to stay on the field.
Last season, Williams was off to a scorching start before his season was cut short after just three games. Williams posted outings of 8.5, 16.6, and 25.1 fantasy points before tearing his ACL in Week 3.
If it feels like Williams was just getting started as a strong fantasy asset, that’s because he’s only been one for three years.
The problem in expecting that to continue is he’s 30 years old and coming off a devastating knee injury.
That’s already a lot to ask of a player, let alone one with the added complication of joining a new team for the first time in his career while entering his eighth professional season.
Williams is obviously not going to be the top option on the Jets. However, that’s nothing new to him, having played his entire career opposite Keenan Allen.
In his best season, Williams was able to command a 20.8% target share. Can he still command that level of volume now? That remains to be seen. If he doesn’t, it might be an issue.
The 2021 Chargers attempted 674 passes. The 2024 Jets, with 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers coming off a torn Achilles, are not getting close to that number … which brings us to the next issue.
Including Garrett Wilson, the value of Jets receivers is heavily linked to both Rodgers’ health, as well as his ability to mostly be the same guy he was before he got hurt. As a reminder, the last time we saw Rodgers was in 2022, and he wasn’t particularly good.
If Rodgers is a shell of his former self, or if the Jets are forced to turn to Tyrod Taylor, Williams will likely struggle to even be worth rostering in fantasy leagues.
Is Williams a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
The best part about Williams is his price. He’s going off the board as the WR54, No. 137 overall. At that spot in the WR ranks, we want to take shots on younger players with upside.
Williams feels out of place among a bunch of young, unproven players. But I don’t hate the idea of gambling on him rebounding. He was very good in his three games last season.
While we can’t expect his upside to be the same with Rodgers as it was with Justin Herbert, merely returning WR3 value would be a massively positive return on investment.
I have Williams ranked as my WR54, which is right in line with consensus. We are certainly getting an injury discount with Williams. If you want to capitalize, I won’t get in your way.