Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans was terrific in last Sunday’s 33-16 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, catching eight passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. However, he missed practice earlier this week due to knee and calf injuries. With the Bucs on a short week, will Evans play in tonight’s game against the Atlanta Falcons?
The Latest on Mike Evans’ Injuries
Evans missed Monday’s practice, but it’s worth noting that the Bucs just did a walkthrough, so the injury report was an estimation.
Fortunately, Evans got in limited practices on Tuesday and Wednesday, and he doesn’t have an injury designation for this game, so he’s good to go against the Falcons tonight.
This isn’t a huge surprise, as Evans is one of the most durable players in the NFL — with more 1,000-yard seasons (10) than missed games (nine) throughout his career. Also, of those nine missed games, several were due to suspensions.
Evans’s availability is huge for Tampa Bay, as they will be without wide receivers Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and Trey Palmer (concussion) for tonight’s game against Atlanta.
Evans’ knee issue isn’t new, as he was limited in practice last week with the same injury and it didn’t prevent him from having a big game against the Eagles, so that’s good news.
Given the injuries to their wide-receiver room, the Bucs signed veteran wideout Sterling Shepard from their practice squad to their active roster after he played well in Sunday’s win over Philadelphia, catching three passes for 51 yards. Shepard and quarterback Baker Mayfield played together in college at Oklahoma, so the two already have chemistry.
The #Buccaneers listed WRs Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer as not practicing yesterday. Short week, so Sterling Shepard gives them some security at the position as they get closer to the game against the #Falcons on Thursday. https://t.co/PzahIGeij8
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) October 1, 2024
By sitting Evans on Monday, it seems the Bucs were just being cautious with their star wide receiver to ensure that he’d be healthy for tonight’s highly anticipated divisional matchup against the Falcons.
What can fantasy managers expect from Evans entering tonight’s contest?
Evans’ Fantasy Outlook
Evans snapped a two-game scoreless drought (yes, with Evans’ consistency, two games constitute as a “drought”) with a first-drive score against the Eagles last Sunday.
The strong performance (8-94-1) could have been even better if he hadn’t been subbed out for Trey Palmer after making a big play, as Palmer made the most of that opportunity with a touchdown on the very next play. However, Evans’ managers can’t be mad with his second top-five finish of the season.
The risk is there for Evans given the reduction of downfield chances in this offense (two finishes outside of the top 40 receivers this season), especially in a matchup like this against a Falcons defense that has allowed just eight deep completions on the season (zero touchdowns).
Evans isn’t a perfect player, and I’m not sure I’m counting on Mayfield sustaining his current play for three more months, but this is an offense that I expect to embrace a high pass rate; that will result in him getting home more often than not.
How did Evans fare against the Falcons last season, and how did it compare to Chris Godwin? Last season’s splits against Atlanta are interesting because Godwin was the featured piece but did very little with the opportunity.
WR splits vs. Atlanta, 2023
- Godwin: 34.8% target share, scored 59.1% of expected PPR points
- Evans: 21.5% target share, scored 96.5% of expected PPR points
I tend to trust the usage more than the results, and it was clear that Godwin was in the matchup they wanted to exploit — he saw 48% of the fourth-quarter targets over these two games, a set of contests that saw the Buccaneers score 42 points to the Falcons’ 41.
It’ll be interesting to see how new offensive coordinator Liam Coen attacks the Falcons tonight. The fact that Mayfield is playing out of his mind right now makes it easier to trust both Evans and Godwin. It’s time to consider Mayfield a top-10 option at the quarterback position. He has just enough ‘crazy’ in him (10+ yard run in three of four games) to threaten defenses in multiple ways, and he’s excelling at what the defense is giving him.
Through four weeks, Mayfield has the league’s lowest average depth of throw (5.5 yards), and with a quartet of viable playmakers around him, that’s a sustainable source of fantasy income. We saw him execute the script to perfection on the first drive last week (nine passes with four different players seeing multiple targets), and I expect a similar game plan against a divisional rival who has allowed the second-highest completion percentage up to this point (73.4%).
Last season, we saw Mayfield spike at times because Evans would take over certain games. This year, he’s controlling the field and this entire offense, something that resulted in a trio of top-five finishes in September. Banking on four in five weeks is a little rich, but I have him as a top-10 play and fully believe that he is worthy of consideration over Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow, two QBs who were among the MVP favorites just one month ago.