Last season, Mike Evans reestablished himself as the clear WR1 on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now 31 years old with the risk of declining at any moment, should fantasy football managers pay an early-round pick for the future Hall-of-Fame receiver?
Mike Evans’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
I wanted no part of Evans last season.
In retrospect, that take looks pretty awful. But the real test is determining whether it was wrong at the time. After some careful analysis, I believe it was.
Evans’ 2022 season was definitely a step backward. He averaged fewer fantasy points per game than any of his previous four seasons.
While it’s never fun to see a receiver perform worse than expected, Evans still averaged 15.0 fantasy points per game. That’s not exactly bad. He finished as the overall WR13, which is right in line with what he usually does.
Most importantly, Evans did not exhibit any signs of physical decline. There was nothing in his performance that suggested he was losing it. Therefore, we had every reason to view him more favorably heading into 2023 with a clear QB upgrade. And yes, a lot of QBs would have classified as a QB upgrade on the 2022 version of Tom Brady.
One of my main arguments against Evans was the obvious significant decline in passing volume that was going to come with Brady retiring and Baker Mayfield replacing him.
Before the season, I stated I expected at least over 100 fewer pass attempts. That ended up being quite prescient, as Mayfield threw just 566 passes last year.
However, while the overall volume decreased, Evans’ portion of it increased. His target share went up from 19.7% to 24.5%, which helped to mitigate the loss of total targets. What contributed most to his stellar season, though, was the massive increase in efficiency.
Evans was a monster downfield. He led the league in deep-ball targets with 36, and his 14.1 aDOT (average depth of target) was 14th in the league. Evans’ yards per route and yards per reception were both top 15. Most importantly for fantasy, he led the NFL with 13 receiving touchdowns.
Evans has now put together 10 straight seasons of over 1,000 receiving yards. His 1,255 from last year actually marked the third-highest total of his career.
This year, Evans is not flying under the radar. There are a lot of talented WRs going at the top of fantasy drafts. Evans is right up there with them with his WR15 ADP, No. 32 overall.
I’m not sure how much time Evans has left. It’s probably no more than a year or two. But my new outlook on older players is I am not going to account for a decline until I see signs. Evans has shown no signs. Yet, I am out.
The reason I am fading Evans has nothing to do with his talent. I think it’s still there. I just don’t think the gap between him and Chris Godwin should be as wide as it is.
Both Evans and Godwin are due for touchdown regression in opposite directions. If Evans loses 2-3 scores and Godwin gains them, Godwin will be the far superior selection at cost.
The biggest argument against Evans is it’s hard to envision a scenario where he significantly outperforms his ADP. His ceiling is probably around 17 ppg. There are several guys going around him that have higher upside, albeit with much worse downside. Those are the players I am more interested in drafting.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Insights on Mike Evans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans is entering his age-31 season but has yet to show any signs of decline (79 catches in 2023, his most since 2018). He doesn’t, however, have elite quarterback play and thus has some swings in production from week to week.
Evans is a player I have more exposure to in best ball formats than redraft. The numbers always seem to be there in the end, but he never ranks too highly in the consistency rankings, and I don’t think that changes this season.
Evans had eight games last season with four or fewer catches, and in weeks in which he doesn’t score, you’re losing ground in your matchup (7.6 PPR points per game). He is currently coming off draft boards in the second half of Round 3 (WR17), putting him ahead of the Cooper Kupp/DJ Moore/DeVonta Smith/DK Metcalf tier of receiver, and I think that’s about right.
For me, Evans is a situational buy. If you’ve locked in a strong production floor through two rounds, go for it. If you have some week-to-week variance already on your roster, I’d be more likely to take players in Kupp/Moore that I project to be more consistent, albeit with less upside.
I don’t doubt that Evans’ stat line at the end of the season will be something close to what we’ve come to expect (1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns), but I’m skeptical about how we get there.
Godwin led this team in red-zone targets last season (16 to Evans’ 14), and if the 6’5” WR1 isn’t dominating that target share, a decline in touchdown equity could make for some frustrating weeks.