After several months of hard work and a bit of luck, we have reached Week 15, the start of the fantasy football playoffs. For those still in the hunt for an elusive title, congratulations, but the work is only beginning. It starts right now with the waiver wire and a somewhat controversial player in Atlanta Falcons RB Mike Davis. Is it possible to trust the veteran with your fantasy future on the line, and can Davis prove to be a worthwhile addition off the waiver wire for Week 15 and beyond?
Mike Davis continues to be an up-and-down player in fantasy
Davis was one of the stories of the year in 2020, and that’s saying something given what a year it was. Filling in for an injured Christian McCaffrey, Davis was a volume machine. However, he did show the wear and tear at the end of the season despite finishing with a strong year.
Davis was the RB12 in PPR scoring, averaging 14.4 PPR points while seeing 235 opportunities. Now in Atlanta, Davis has been somewhat disappointing for those who believe he could have been a mid-round value on draft day.
Despite starting the season with double-digit games in six of his first seven games, Davis averaged just 10.0 PPR points per game as the RB33. However, Davis was widely inefficient with his touches, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry while ranking 57th in fantasy points per opportunity at 0.66 (minimum 30 opportunities). The back half of the season hasn’t been any better either.
Davis saw his opportunities drop from 15.0 per game to just 9.5 as Cordarrelle Patterson became the focal point of the Falcons’ backfield/offense. In the middle of the season, it hit a low point from Weeks 9-12, where Davis was the RB54, averaging just 4.2 PPR points per game and 0.52 pts/opp. And yet, Davis has seen a bit of an uptick in recent weeks, which might give fantasy managers a bit of hope as the playoffs come.
With back-to-back RB2 weeks, Davis is trending upwards
For the first time all season, Davis has finished inside the top 24 for back-to-back weeks, each time landing as the RB17 in PPR scoring.
In Week 13, Davis got his work done in the air rather than the ground. Despite rushing just 4 times against the Buccaneers, he totaled 32 yards on the ground, including a 17-yard touchdown run. Davis also caught all 4 of his targets for a then-season-high 37 yards. Then, in Week 14 against Carolina, Davis saw 11 carries, his highest total since Week 5, rushing for 44 yards (4.0 ypc) while catching 5 of 6 passes for a new season-best 42 yards.
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Davis has averaged 15.3 PPR points over his last two games against two of the tougher defenses in the NFL, particularly against running backs. Patterson has been the surprise player of the season for fantasy, but Davis only trailed him in touches last week, 18 to 16.
With two straight reliable outings, after spending the majority of the season as a fringe starter and then a droppable asset, is Davis a top waiver wire claim for Week 15?
Is Davis a priority waiver wire claim for Week 15 as the playoffs begin?
For as decent as Davis has been over these last few games, his workload and fantasy upside are extremely game-script-dependent. That’s the downside of playing on a poor team, which the Falcons are. With that said, Davis has shown the ability to be utilized in the passing game, and quite frankly, needs it to be a viable fantasy starter.Â
Davis has only 3 touchdowns on the season, and it’s because he’s not seeing red-zone opportunities. When inside the 20-yard line, it’s Patterson all the way, as he leads Davis 32-17 in red-zone touches.Â
When you lose the opportunity to reliably gain touches inside the most critical part of the field, there is only so much upside for a player to bring. There are 114 different RBs or WRs who average 9.0 fantasy points or more per game on the season, which is exactly what Davis has averaged in 2021. On the season, he has finished as an RB2 or better three times.
I bring all of this up because while Davis can give you low-end flex numbers, that isn’t winning a week or bringing upside. As a depth piece, I can get behind him. And even in 12-team or larger leagues, he might be startable based on your roster right now. I’m sure most of us are hurting in more than one league. Still, Davis has the chance to lose you weeks while lacking upside to win them, which makes him hard to trust or rank higher than an RB3/flex in any given week.
