The Arizona Cardinals are set at WR1 but have an uncertain situation at WR2.
Michael Wilson showed flashes last season, but he was unable to produce consistently. Could he emerge as the team’s WR2 and be a surprisingly useful fantasy football wide receiver?
Should You Select Michael Wilson at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 214th Overall (WR74)
- Inconsistent Production: Wilson showed flashes of potential in his rookie season but struggled with consistency. Despite earning an 80% snap share, he only managed a 13.7% target share and was targeted on just 14.4% of his routes run, ranking 83rd in the league.
- Brief Moments of Fantasy Relevance: Wilson had a standout Week 4 performance, scoring 26.6 fantasy points and briefly becoming a hot waiver wire pickup. However, he failed to produce in the following weeks, leaving fantasy managers disappointed.
- Late-Season Upside: Wilson finished the season strong with back-to-back 15.5-point outings in Weeks 17 and 18, but by then, it was too late for most fantasy managers. These performances suggest he has upside if he can find more consistency.
- Efficiency with Limited Targets: One bright spot in Wilson’s 2023 season was his efficiency. His 9.7 yards per target ranked 15th in the league, indicating that when he was targeted, he made the most of his opportunities.
- Uncertain Role in 2024: The Arizona Cardinals have a more stable quarterback situation with a healthy Kyler Murray and have added rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., who is expected to lead the team in targets. The addition of Zay Jones and the presence of slot receiver Greg Dortch further complicate Wilson’s path to consistent playing time.
- ADP Analysis: Wilson’s current ADP at WR78 suggests he’s not being drafted in most fantasy leagues. With his unclear role and stiff competition, it’s hard to justify selecting him even at that low ADP.
- Final Verdict: Wilson has the talent to be fantasy-relevant, but the uncertain WR2 situation in Arizona, coupled with the team’s additions and competition, makes him a risky pick. He’s only worth considering in very deep leagues, and even then, his upside is limited. I have him ranked at WR84, which is outside of fantasy relevance in most formats.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Michael Wilson
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Wilson is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
64) Jahan Dotson, WR | Washington Commanders
65) Adam Thielen, WR | Carolina Panthers
66) Dontayvion Wicks, WR | Green Bay Packers
67) Ja’Lynn Polk, WR | New England Patriots
68) Marvin Mims Jr., WR | Denver Broncos
69) Michael Wilson, WR | Arizona Cardinals
70) Ricky Pearsall, WR | San Francisco 49ers
71) Xavier Legette, WR | Carolina Panthers
72) Quentin Johnston, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
73) Malachi Corley, WR | New York Jets
74) Wan’Dale Robinson, WR | New York Giants
Wilson’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
It’s hard to truly gauge this offense from last season, as half the year was spent with Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune at quarterback. Rookie third-rounder Wilson was able to earn an 80% snap share, giving him ample opportunity to command targets. For the most part, he couldn’t.
Wilson only saw a 13.7% target share despite operating as the primary Z receiver opposite Hollywood Brown. He was targeted on just 14.4% of his routes run, 83rd in the league.
In Week 4, Wilson caught all seven of his targets for 76 yards and 2 touchdowns. His 26.6 fantasy points made him the overall WR6 on the week. This was the point at which his name appeared near the top of many waiver wire columns, making him a hot pickup. He did not reward fantasy managers who shelled out FAAB to acquire him.
Over his next seven games, which included a month missed due to injury, Wilson’s best outing was 9.8 fantasy points. From the moment fantasy managers picked him up en masse, Wilson wasn’t a viable starter.
Surely, fantasy managers dropped him by the time he was useful again. Wilson did close the season strong with back-to-back 15.5-point outings in Weeks 17 and 18, which did no one any good. However, it does help us a bit for 2024, as it indicates Wilson possesses the upside to make him worth drafting at the right price.
Is Wilson a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
There is one positive metric to take away from Wilson’s 2023 season. His 9.7 yards per target was 15th in the league. Wilson wasn’t targeted often, but when he was, he was efficient.
The Cardinals will also benefit greatly from a full season of a healthy Kyler Murray. Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to lead this team in targets by a wide margin. TE Trey McBride should be second. But Murray can definitely sustain a third option. The question is whether it will be Wilson.
In addition to drafting Harrison, the Cardinals also signed Zay Jones. The journeyman isn’t the most talented player in the world, but there’s a non-zero chance he plays ahead of Wilson, which would be a death sentence to the sophomore’s fantasy value.
Even if Wilson is able to fend off Jones, the team is pretty high on slot receiver Greg Dortch. If Dortch starts in the slot, Wilson has to start ahead of Jones on the outside. Otherwise, Wilson becomes the WR4, which is miles away from being fantasy-relevant.
Wilson’s ADP sits at WR78, meaning he’s probably not getting drafted in most fantasy leagues. I have Wilson at WR84, which is a meaningless distinction.
There are too many talented receivers with clearer paths to upside. As a result, I, too, am not even looking at Wilson outside of very deep leagues.