Two fantasy football WRs with similar ADPs are Michael Thomas and Chase Claypool. Despite their proximity on draft boards, they couldn’t be less similar picks. Which one you select will depend entirely on your overall team composition.
The case for Chase Claypool over Michael Thomas
Before New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas’ ankle injury was revealed, he was going in the early to middle of the third round. When healthy, he is the type of WR that can carry your fantasy team.
Michael Thomas’ ankle woes
On January 19, Adam Schefter reported that Thomas would need offseason surgery on his injured ankle. On July 2, Ian Rapoport tweeted that Thomas didn’t undergo ankle surgery until June. At that point, it became a foregone conclusion that Thomas was going to miss regular-season games. On August 31, ESPN reported that the Saints placed Thomas on the PUP list, guaranteeing he cannot return until at least Week 7.
Michael Thomas’ outlook upon return
There are several issues with Thomas’ outlook in 2021. First, we know he’s missing at least half of the games in the fantasy regular season. Second, we have no guarantee he actually plays at all (2019 A.J. Green says hello). Third, even if Thomas does return, how effective will he be? And fourth, if Thomas can physically go at near 100%, he will be operating without Drew Brees. Thomas comes with a heap of uncertainty that Claypool simply does not.
Chase Claypool possesses league-winning upside
For Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Chase Claypool, the fantasy outlook is much rosier. Claypool is coming off a rookie campaign where he burst onto the scene a bit unexpectedly to post an 873-yard, 9-touchdown season. He was targeted over 100 times but wasn’t the starter for much of the season.
Claypool averaged 14.1 yards per reception as a rookie. That number could actually improve in Year 2 as Ben Roethlisberger’s elbow is stronger, being another season removed from surgery. Claypool is also entering 2021 as the clear WR2 opposite Diontae Johnson.
Claypool is not without concerns
There is zero doubt regarding Claypool’s talent. At 6’4″, 238 pounds with 4.42 speed, he profiles as a classic alpha WR1. If he is used to the best of his ability, his ceiling is close to Mike Evans. Unfortunately, Claypool does have volume concerns.
Johnson is, in fact, Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown replacement. Johnson is the WR1 on this team and commands targets due to his ability to get open. He will lead this team in targets, and I don’t really think that’s up for debate.
Regardless, Claypool can certainly thrive alongside Johnson. The bigger concern is the return of JuJu Smith-Schuster, whom most expected to depart for greener pastures this offseason. While Claypool is 100 times the talent Smith-Schuster is, if preseason usage is any indication, Smith-Schuster will be the WR2 in two-receiver sets.
With the Steelers drafting rookie Pat Freiermuth and already rostering Eric Ebron, they could run a lot more 12 personnel this season. If that is sending Claypool to the bench, that’s a problem.
Ultimately, Claypool’s upside is too tantalizing to pass on
If all things were equal, the answer to Thomas or Claypool would be Thomas, and it wouldn’t be close. However, all things are not equal. We know Claypool will be out there in Week 1. Meanwhile, Thomas’ odds of not playing a single snap this season are a lot higher than many realize.
It is just bad process to pass on an ascending talent with prototypical alpha wide receiver attributes in favor of an injured wide receiver on the back half of his career with a new quarterback. When deciding which fantasy football WR to put on your roster, take the talented guy you know will play football.
