Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. has seen his catch and target count increase each season of his career, ending 2023 with an impressive 109 grabs and 1,152 yards. The problem has been a lack of scoring equity (15 TDs across 62 career games), but there is hope that this offense functions at an elite level, thus putting their WR1 in position to reach new fantasy football heights.
At cost, is Pittman a good way to get exposure to this offense, or should managers be more concerned with how the rushing stats are accumulated in Indy this season?
Michael Pittman’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
There is plenty to like about how 2024 (and beyond) sets up for the Colts’ top receiver. The thought exiting the 2023 season was that Indianapolis would be a pass catcher short of taking a big step forward, as it was assumed that Pittman would hit the open market and see money thrown at him from a variety of teams.
Well, Indy took the drama out of that situation by giving Pittman $70 million across three seasons, making him one of the 10 most well-compensated receivers in the NFL. Pittman was certainly worth that price tag last season, and the hope is that his skill set will accelerate Richardson’s growth while the quarterback is still on his rookie deal.
The schedule runs out nicely for Pittman and company, but that’s not all. As good as Pittman was in his fourth season, there’s room for a ton of growth in the environment around him, which means he could not only be a top-10 receiver in terms of money earned, but also in fantasy points accumulated.
Anthony Richardson 🚀 Michael Pittman Jr
(🎥 @Colts)
pic.twitter.com/aRMkvl0pSi— PFF (@PFF) August 7, 2024
Last season, the Colts finished 23rd in converting red-zone trips into touchdowns (49.1%, behind the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos) and 26th on third down (35.3%, behind the Washington Commanders and Las Vegas Raiders).
That means that without the ability to extend or finish drives — not to mention their starting quarterback — Indianapolis supported a top-15 receiver (more PPR points per game than Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, and Chris Olave, to name a few).
What if this is a top-10 offense in 2024? Despite those limitations, Pittman ranked sixth in red-zone receptions last season, so the role and ability to get open in valuable spots is a skill he has very much shown.
The fact that Pittman converted just two of those receptions into scores is statistically improbable. Other players who finished top 10 in red-zone receptions scored on 39.7% of the catches inside the 20, implying that we would have expected 3-4 more scores from Pittman at a minimum. With more upside under center, he’s more likely than not to trend near league average.
Add in the August high-ankle sprain to Josh Downs, the other option set to soak up targets in the short passing game, and we have ourselves a player that is plenty capable at building on his strong 2023 performance.
Is Pittman a Good Fantasy Pick?
I have Pittman ranked as a fringe WR1 and that is well ahead of his ADP (he floats from WR15-19). The industry as a whole has steamed up Richardson, and if he is as good as we expect (and I think he will be), this team is going to be in scoring position with consistency.
Pittman has proven plenty capable of earning targets at a high level and the touchdowns figure to follow. I have a hard time thinking that the 6’4” 223-pound receiver is allergic to the end zone, and that is really the only hole in his profile.
Veterans like Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, and Stefon Diggs share an ADP tier with Pittman this year. I understand the mean production case and why it lands Indy’s WR1 in that range, but I’m comfortable in betting on his elite role in an offense that I think will rank in the top quarter of the league.
This is a player who saw his slot usage spike last season while his percentage of targets seen 15+ yards down field nearly doubled last year from his 2022 rate. Pittman is a queen on the chessboard and Richardson has a chance to be his Bobby Fischer.