Rookie running backs always get a lot of attention, and for good reason. Out of all the positions, RBs tend to make the biggest and most immediate impact for fantasy football managers. Michael Carter of the New York Jets has done just that in recent weeks. Should he be started in Week 10?
Michael Carter’s recent production
Since Week 7, Carter is the overall RB5 in half-PPR scoring. He’s averaging only 54.3 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks, but he’s seeing 8.3 targets, 6 receptions, and 66.3 receiving yards per game as well. For PPR or half-PPR scoring, that’s incredibly valuable.
To be perfectly fair, Carter’s value over that time is buoyed by a huge receiving line two weeks ago against the Cincinnati Bengals when he saw a whopping 14 targets. Last week, backup quarterback Mike White was knocked out of the game early with an injury, putting longtime backup Josh Johnson into the game. That wasn’t exactly a recipe for success, both for real life and fantasy football.
Carter will be helped again by Mike White
That massive 14-target game was with White under center, and he’s slated to be back this week. White checked the ball down early and often against the Bengals, taking what the defense gave him while keeping the chains moving.
With White back under center, Carter should once again be a featured part of New York’s offense.
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The matchup against the Buffalo Bills, while brutal on paper, might actually play into Carter’s hands. Buffalo should come out with their hair on fire after a staggering loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. And by all accounts, they should roll the Jets.
Buffalo allows the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game and surrenders the fewest fantasy points per game to the running back position. However, that could leave open the opportunity for White to target Carter in large volumes again, especially in what is expected to be a negative game script.
Carter’s Week 10 fantasy outlook
On paper, Carter is a bad play. But I don’t like paper. While Buffalo’s run defense is among the best in the NFL, there’s a realistic expectation that Carter will be heavily utilized in the passing game. Like I said earlier, he’s the RB5 over the last three weeks with only 162 rushing yards combined during that time.
Think Austin Ekeler-light. It doesn’t matter how tough the run defense is if he’s used in the passing game.
No, I don’t expect Carter to be the overall RB1 like he was two weeks ago. But he should once again be a safe RB2 with RB1 upside. I’m not being scared away by the matchup with the Bills.
