Michael Carter’s dynasty value is on the rise in 2022 after a strong close to his rookie season. Young, talented running backs are the backbone of dynasty rosters. How should dynasty fantasy football managers value Carter going forward?
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Michael Carter’s dynasty profile for 2022
Carter is a very interesting running back to assess in dynasty. When you have a player for his entire career, first and foremost, you want to consider talent. At the same time, situation and opportunity matter as well.
Is Carter’s situation with the New York Jets a good one in 2022? Well, it depends. How good is Zach Wilson?
The Jets’ offseason moves were that of a team that believes it has its franchise quarterback. That’s completely fair and exactly what the Jets need to do. They beefed up the offensive line and are widely expected to draft a wide receiver early in the process.
Their goal is to put Wilson in the best position to succeed. If he takes a step forward and this offense goes from one of the worst in the NFL to merely average, Carter will look like a value.
Fantasy projection for Carter
Although he was a fourth-round pick, Carter is very clearly the Jets’ running back of the future. I have zero concerns about his role and usage entering the 2022 season.
As a rookie, Carter totaled just under 1,000 yards from scrimmage in 14 games. What has me most excited about Carter is his usage in the passing game. We don’t want our running backs coming off the field when their teams have to throw. The Jets constantly trailing is how Carter ended up on the field so much to begin with.
Carter saw 55 targets as a rookie, including back-to-back games with 9 and 14 targets, respectively, in Weeks 7 and 8. This is a player that had a 9.2% college target share. He’s an adept pass catcher, which gives him an excellent fantasy floor.
Carter averaged 11.2 PPR fantasy points per game last season. That’s a great foundation to build upon. This is a player that posted an overall RB1 week in his first NFL season as a member of the Jets. Carter has a proven ceiling, but if he wants to get close to it, he’ll need his team to get better.
What is Carter’s future beyond 2022?
Carter is just 23 years old and entering his second NFL season. He’s the type of player you want on your dynasty roster. I would be stunned if he wasn’t at least an RB2 for the next three years.
The Jets’ running back depth chart suggests Carter is going to be an all-purpose back. Their decision to re-sign Tevin Coleman is a positive as far as I’m concerned. At this point in Coleman’s career, he’s a trustworthy veteran backup that can enter the game in a pinch and not mess up. He’s no threat to cut into Carter’s work.
Everything on the Jets is in place for them to be a perennial contender. They just need their quarterback to be good. Hopefully, Wilson proves worthy of the second overall pick and grows into a true franchise QB.
Even if Wilson ends up being a bust, running backs are not as reliant on the quality of their offense as wide receivers. Carter can still be a productive fantasy RB on a bad team primarily due to his receiving prowess. Dynasty managers certainly shouldn’t value Carter ahead of slightly older running backs with proven production, but he’s very much a desirable asset.
What can dynasty managers expect from Carter?
Carter should be a three-down back in 2022. With so few three-down backs at any given time, dynasty managers should know what they have in Carter. Or, if you’re trying to acquire Carter, know what he’s worth. Volume is king.
At the same time, do not overvalue a fourth-round Jets running back. Carter is good, but he’s not D’Andre Swift or Najee Harris from a dynasty perspective.
If you have Carter, it’s likely because you took him in your 2021 dynasty rookie draft. As always, there’s a price for every player. However, Carter falls more on the hold/possibly buy side than the sell side.