Can the Miami Dolphins actually salvage their season after a 2-6 start? They signaled they can by declining to trade away anyone ahead of Tuesday’s NFL deadline.
But it’s put up or shut up time the next three weeks, starting Monday with a nationally televised game against the Los Angeles Rams (4-4).
Miami Dolphins-Los Angeles Rams Game Preview
Last Time Out
If games were 59 minutes instead of 60, the Dolphins’ playoff prospects would not be so dire. In Week 9, they lost on a last-second field goal for the second straight week, dropping a 30-27 decision to the Buffalo Bills.
The silver lining? The Dolphins’ offense appears to be back to form, scoring 54 points in the two games since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injured reserve.
As for the Rams? They’re a team on the rise. After a 1-4 start, they’ve won three straight, including a 26-20 overtime thriller against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 9. Matthew Stafford found Demarcus Robinson on a 39-yard touchdown pass midway through the extra period to win it.
Prime-Time Woes
The Dolphins have a terrible track record of late in standalone games. Their last prime-time win was against the Patriots in Week 2 of the 2023 season.
In showcase games since, they’re just 1-7.
They:
- Lost to Titans on MNF (2024)
- Lost to Bills on TNF (2024)
- Lost to Chiefs in Wild Card Round (2023)
- Lost to Bills on MNF (2023)
- Lost to Titans on MNF (2023)
- Beat Jets on Black Friday (2023)
- Lost to Chiefs in Germany (2023)
- Lost to Eagles on SNF (2023)
Key Injuries
The Dolphins’ defense could get back several key players who missed the Bills game, including Zach Sieler (eye) and Jevon Holland (knee). Miami also seems close to having Bradley Chubb (knee) available for the first time this year, which will help a pass rush that has the second-fewest sacks in football (10).
The Rams aren’t expected to have starting right tackle Rob Havenstein this week but could get back offensive line starters Steve Avila and Jonah Johnson from IR.
In his first game back from IR, wide receiver Puka Nacua had one catch for 11 yards on four targets.
2️⃣8️⃣ is like that
@ffvmousvon_ was on the 🎙️ for Week 9 pic.twitter.com/1upjuNHiqP— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins)
Series History
There is no team the Dolphins have had more success against historically than the Rams. They’re 12-2 all-time against Los Angeles, with a franchise-best .857 winning percentage.
The Dolphins have won their last five meetings against the Rams, with the latest coming in 2020 in Tua Tagovailoa’s first NFL start. Miami won that game despite getting outgained 471-145.
Betting Lines
The betting public sees this as a very close game. As of Thursday morning, Los Angeles was a one-point home favorite (-118 moneyline) with an over/under of 50. Miami’s moneyline was -102.
The Dolphins are 0-3 against the spread this year coming off more than six days rest, 1-4 straight up after a loss, and 21-40 on the road since 2017.
The Rams, meanwhile, have gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after Halloween.
Dolphins vs. Rams Stats and Rankings
Offense
Dolphins
- Scoring: 15.5 (31st)
- Yards: 324.9 (20th)
- Yards per play: 5 (24th)
- Rushing: 133.9 (ninth)
- Yards per carry: 4.4 (17th)
- Passing: 191 (24th)
- Yards per pass: 6 (24th)
- Interception rate: 1.6% (ninth)
- Sacks per pass attempt: 7.9% (19th)
- First downs: 19.3 (t-16th)
- Turnover margin: -3 (t-23rd)
- EPA per play: -.103 (27th)
- Success rate: 41.8% (19th)
- Dropback EPA: -.007 (22nd)
- Rush EPA: -.227 (31st)
Rams
- Scoring: 21.3 (21st)
- Yards: 328.9 (18th)
- Yards per play: 5.3 (18th)
- Rushing: 97.1 (26th)
- Yards per carry: 3.8 (31st)
- Passing: 231.8 (ninth)
- Yards per pass: 6.7 (17th)
- Interception rate: 2.2% (19th)
- Sacks per pass attempt: 6.1% (ninth)
- First downs: 20.9 (t-eighth)
- Turnover margin: +2 (t-13th)
- EPA per play: .011 (15th)
- Success rate: 47.8% (fifth)
- Dropback EPA: .069 (16th)
- Rush EPA: -.076 (18th)
Here are our QB Rankings for Week 9 using our QB+ Metric 🏈
Our QB+ metric looks at several statistics, including net yards per attempt (nYPA), third-down conversion rate, passing under pressure, and passing from a clean pocket. Additionally, we have quantified performances in… pic.twitter.com/izQTQaUR3j
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365)
Defense
Dolphins
- Scoring: 23.4 (17th)
- Yards: 303.1 (seventh)
- Yards per play: 5.3 (14th)
- Rushing: 120 (13th)
- Yards per carry: 4.4 (14th)
- Passing: 183.1 (fourth)
- Yards per pass: 6.4 (13th)
- Interception rate: 1.8% (t-21st)
- Sacks per pass attempt: 4.4% (30th)
- First downs: 18 (11th)
- EPA per play: .010 (18th)
- Success rate: 43.1% (14th)
- Dropback EPA: .096 (25th)
- Rush EPA: -.101 (13th)
Rams
- Scoring: 24.3 (t-22nd)
- Yards: 360.8 (24th)
- Yards per play: 5.8 (28th)
- Rushing: 135.1 (24th)
- Yards per carry: 4.4 (11th)
- Passing: 225.6 (23rd)
- Yards per pass: 7.8 (30th)
- Interception rate: 3.5% (seventh)
- Sacks per pass attempt: 9.1% (eighth)
- First downs: 20.4 (21st)
- EPA per play: .027 (21st)
- Success rate: 45% (21st)
- Dropback EPA: .093 (23rd)
- Rush EPA: -.056 (17th)
Projected Dolphins vs. Rams Starting Lineups
Dolphins
- Quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa
- Wide receiver: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
- Running back/fullback: De’Von Achane, Alec Ingold
- Tight end: Durham Smythe
- Offensive line (left to right): Terron Armstead, Robert Jones, Aaron Brewer, Liam Eichenberg, Austin Jackson
- Defensive line: Zach Sieler, Benito Jones, Calais Campbell
- Linebacker: Anthony Walker Jr., Jordyn Brooks, Emmanuel Ogbah, Chop Robinson
- Defensive backs: Jalen Ramsey, Kendall Fuller, Jordan Poyer, Jevon Holland
Rams
- Quarterback: Matthew Stafford
- Wide receiver: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Demarcus Robinson
- Running back/fullback: Kyren Williams
- Tight end: Colby Parkinson
- Offensive line (left to right): Alaric Jackson, Justin Dedich, Beaux Limmer, Kevin Dotson, Warren McClendon Jr.
- Defensive line: Braden Fiske, Bobby Brown III, Kobie Turner
- Linebacker: Byron Young, Jared Verse, Omar Speights, Christian Rozeboom
- Defensive backs: Cobie Durant, Quentin Lake, Kam Curl, Darious Williams
What They’re Saying
“I think that the playmakers on their offense is what makes their team go. Quarterback and the two receivers they have. They’ve also got a good running back along with good coaches, so it’ll be a challenge, just like every other week to stop them.” — LB Jordyn Brooks
