Here’s a fun fact — should the Miami Dolphins (2-3) upset the Indianapolis Colts (3-3) Sunday and the Los Angeles Chargers lose to the Arizona Cardinals, Tua Tagovailoa will return from injured reserve in Week 8 to a team that sits in the AFC’s seventh seed.
So yeah, the season is absolutely back on for a Dolphins team that looked completely lost just three weeks ago.
Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts Game Preview
Certainly, those are big ifs, particularly since the Dolphins still are probably the NFL’s worst offense when Tagovailoa is unavailable.
Snoop Huntley has been better than Skylar Thompson, but that’s an incredibly low bar. But Huntley’s one and only job is to keep the Dolphins afloat until Miami’s QB1 returns. A win Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium will get that done.
The Colts, as of Friday morning, were three-point home favorites with a -155 moneyline (+130 for Miami). The over/under was 43.5.
Every NFL team broken down into tiers based on offensive and defensive performance heading into Week 7 📊 pic.twitter.com/D4SUPbhhmg
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365)
There was heavy action on the Colts to win straight up — 85% of the bets and 79% of the money.
PFN’s predictions, plus seven more key stats courtesy of TruMedia, are below.
7 Dolphins-Colts Stats From TruMedia
Stat: With Joe Flacco on the field, the Colts are averaging 0.08 EPA (expected points added) per play, which would be tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers for sixth-best. Without Flacco on the field, the Colts are averaging -0.02 EPA per play, which would rank 17th.
Analysis: We’ve written extensively about how the Colts are doing the Dolphins a favor by starting Anthony Richardson. We get why they’re making the decision. But it doesn’t make it any less helpful to head coach Mike McDaniel.
Stat: The Dolphins have been outscored by 48 points in the first halves of games (cumulative score: 74-26) and just five points after that.
Analysis: The Colts are even more backloaded in their success. Seventy-two of their 139 points this season have come in the fourth quarter. It could be a wild finish.
Stat: Huntley has more touchdown runs than passes this season and doesn’t have a completion gaining more than 21 yards (last season, Miami had 50 completions of 22+ yards, tying them for the fifth most).
Analysis: Here’s the key to the Dolphins’ success this week: Put Huntley under center, run a million play-actions, and let Miami’s solid defense do the rest.
Stat: The Dolphins have essentially the same non-blitz pressure rate this season (39.4%) as last (39.3), but their sack rate in such spots has tanked from 8.4% to 5.6%.
Analysis: With Jaelan Phillips out for the year, Anthony Weaver will have to generate a pass rush with smoke and mirrors until Bradley Chubb returns. Is this the week Chop Robinson breaks out? He’s been better than his stats.
Stat: The Dolphins haven’t had a losing season against the spread since the 2017 team went 5-9-2. Miami is 1-4 ATS this year coming out of its Week 6 bye.
Analysis: Since McDaniel took over as head coach in 2022, the Dolphins are 3-13 straight up as underdogs, including 2-10 on the road.
Stat: The Colts have won two games this season without scoring more than 21 points and have lost a pair of games in which they scored 27+.
Analysis: It hasn’t mattered whether the Colts’ offense is humming or struggling. They simply play close games. All six this year have been decided by one score.
Stat: No defense has been left on the field more often than the Colts this season (34:13 per game). If sustained, this would be the highest opponent average time of possession since the 2021 Seahawks.
Analysis: Hey Mike McDaniel — Run. The. Ball. Opportunities should be there without Colts DL DeForest Buckner, who remains on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain suffered in Week 2.
Dolphins vs. Colts Predictions
David Bearman (51-41 on the season): Colts
Adam Beasley (54-38): Colts
Brian Blewis (50-42): Colts
Anthony DiBona (53-39): Colts
Mike Gambardella (62-30): Colts
Dakota Randall (54-38): Colts
Dallas Robinson (54-38): Colts
Kyle Soppe (57-35): Colts
Dan Tomaro (53-39): Colts
Full Week 7 picks from PFN are available here.
