The latest game of the year is upon us, but unless you live in the right zip code, it’ll take some effort to watch it.
CBS in its infinite wisdom made the battle for the 1 seed — the Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens — a regional game at 1 o’clock instead of swapping the game with Chiefs-Bengals, who play at 4:25 p.m.
That’s a shame. This has all the makings of a classic.
Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens Game Preview
It certainly was the last time these teams played. Tua Tagovailoa threw four fourth-quarter touchdown passes to rally the Dolphins past the Ravens 42-38 in Mike McDaniel’s coming-out party.
“I would say what I remember from that game was it was a hard-fought game,” Tagovailoa said, whose 4,214 passing yards lead the NFL.
“Our team last year, we were able to not let the win or let the score dictate how we wanted to finish and how we wanted to continue to play that game. The result was a win, but it’s a new year.
“They’ve made some changes to their defense. Same scheme, but personnel-wise, they’ve moved some guys around, and they’ve also acquired some new guys. What they’ve put on film, they’re very sound in the back end.”
The Ravens were 3.5-point home favorites as of Friday. Is that line fair? These seven stats — courtesy of Inside Edge — could be determinative.
Seven Dolphins-Ravens Stats From Inside Edge
Stat: The Ravens have a third-down conversion rate of just 21.3% against the blitz this season-worst in the NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of just 22.2% when blitzing this season — tied for second-best in the NFL.
Analysis: The Dolphins don’t bring an extra rusher a ton. Their blitz rate (20.4%) is fifth-lowest in football. But when they do, it’s effective.
MORE: Why Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa Is Guarding Against ‘Chasing Ghosts’
Stat: Lamar Jackson (Ravens) has a 101.4 passer rating at home this season — eighth-best of qualified quarterbacks. The Dolphins have allowed a completion rate of 71.2% on the road this season — tied for fourth-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The Dolphins hope to have safety Jevon Holland (sprained MCLs on both knees) in the lineup for the first time since Black Friday. That would complete a secondary that’s playing as well as any.
Stat: Ravens running backs have gained 529 yards on 52 receptions (10.2 yards per catch) this season — best in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 8.7 ypc to RBs this season — third-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: Credit linebacker Duke Riley for filling some of the leadership void in the three games that Jerome Baker has been out, but there’s been a dropoff in production. Baker allowed 8.9 yards per completion before his injury. Riley is allowing 12.2
Stat: Dolphins wide receivers have 482 receptions in 32 games (15.1 per game) since the 2022 season — tied for third-best in the NFL. The Ravens have allowed 13.5 receptions per game to wide receivers since the 2022 season — fourth-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: Baltimore catches a break with Jaylen Waddle dealing with a high-ankle sprain, but keep in mind the Dolphins dropped 70 on the Denver Broncos the last time Waddle missed a game.
Stat: The Dolphins are averaging 5.1 yards per carry-on rushes to the right side of the field this season — tied for third-best in the NFL. The Ravens have allowed 5.1 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the right this season — tied for fourth-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: Raheem Mostert is another banged-up Dolphins star, so it could be a showcase game for De’Von Achane, who is averaging 8.1 yards per carry in his rookie season.
Stat: Jackson has completed 66.1% of passes in the red zone this season — fifth-best of qualified quarterbacks. The Dolphins have allowed a completion rate of 63.8% when defending in the red zone this season — fourth-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: The Dolphins’ defense ranks fifth in yards per play (4.8) but 13th in scoring (20.9) because it has allowed touchdowns on 63.6% of opponents’ red-zone trips. They can expect a test from the Ravens, who are eighth in red-zone offense (59.7%).
Stat: Mostert has rushed for 10 or more yards on 12.1% of 58 carries since Week 13 — eighth-best of qualified running backs. The Ravens have allowed 10+ yards on 15.6% of carries since Week 13 — second-worst in the NFL.
Analysis: These are two of the NFL’s most explosive running attacks. The Ravens and Dolphins rank first and third in rushes of 20 yards or more (19 and 15, respectively).
Dolphins vs. Ravens Predictions
- Adam Beasley: Ravens
- David Bearman: Dolphins
- Dalton Miller: Ravens
- Jay Morrison: Ravens
- Dallas Robinson: Ravens
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
