The Battle for I-95 resumes Sunday when the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins face off for the 12th time.
Both teams have offensive-minded coaches, big-money quarterbacks, and playoff aspirations. And both teams will sweat buckets.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins Game Preview
The last time the Dolphins and Jags met was in 2021 in London, and the coaches were Brian Flores and Urban Meyer.
Mike McDaniel and Doug Pederson are certainly a step up from those two, particularly from an offensive standpoint.
Both have transformed their highly drafted QBs — Tua Tagovailoa for the Dolphins and Trevor Lawrence for the Jags — into upper-echelon passers.
But more is expected of them all in 2024. It won’t be easy.
Both teams have challenging starts to the season. The Dolphins have two games in the span of five days (the Buffalo Bills come to town Thursday). The Jaguars host the Cleveland Browns in Week 2.
Kickoff is 1 p.m. on CBS, with the broadcast team of Kevin Harlan and Trent Green. The forecasted temperature at kickoff? A scorching 91 degrees.
PFN’s predictions, plus seven key stats courtesy of TruMedia, are below.
7 Jaguars-Dolphins Stats From TruMedia
Stat: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa was the least-blitzed quarterback in the league last season by a wide margin at 17.9%. Patrick Mahomes was next on that list at 19.5%.
Analysis: Ryan Nielsen is the Jags’ new defensive coordinator, so while we can’t say for certain what the Jags’ identity will be this year, it’s instructive to look at Nielsen’s tendencies as Falcons DC in 2023. Atlanta was right at the league average in blitz rate (23.9%) last year.
Stat: Lawrence averaged the fourth-most yards per pass attempt on the road last season (7.5), trailing only Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, and Matthew Stafford.
Analysis: The Dolphins have a significant injury concern at cornerback, with Jalen Ramsey dealing with a hamstring issue. Ramsey’s backup, Ethan Bonner, will likely see a lot of rookie Brian Thomas Jr. when both are on the field.
Stat: The Jaguars were held without points on 25% of their red zone trips last season, the worst rate since the 2020 Eagles.
Analysis: New Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver had a lot working against him when he was the DC in Houston. But the Texans’ red zone defense was pretty solid, allowing touchdowns on 63.5% of such situations.
Stat: Dolphins RB De’Von Achane picked up 10+ yards on 21.6% of his carries as a rookie, 5.4% better than any back who had 100+ attempts last season. (Christian McCaffrey was second.)
Analysis: It’s hard to put into words just how dynamic Achane was as a rookie. Expect an even broader role in 2024, particularly in the passing game with Odell Beckham Jr. on PUP.
Stat: The Jaguars were a top-10 unit in both third-down (36.5%) and goal-to-go defense (66.7%) in 2023.
Analysis: In Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, Jacksonville has arguably the best pass-rushing tandem in football. Those who doubt the Dolphins’ offensive line will either be vindicated or silenced early.
MORE: Simulate the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor
Stat: The Dolphins haven’t had a losing ATS season since they went 5-9-2 ATS in 2017 under Jay Cutler.
Analysis: The line as of Friday was Miami -3, with 60% of the money and 54% of the best on the Dolphins, who are 7-1 straight up at home under McDaniel in September and October.
Stat: Over the past two seasons, the Jaguars cover at a 66.7% rate when the closing total is at least 45 points.
Analysis: The total will be much higher than that Sunday, with these two potent offenses going at it. As of Friday, the O/U was 49.
Jaguars vs. Dolphins Predictions
David Bearman: Dolphins
Adam Beasley: Dolphins
Brian Blewis: Dolphins
Mike Gambardella: Dolphins
Jay Morrison: Dolphins
Dakota Randall: Dolphins
Dallas Robinson: Dolphins
Kyle Soppe: Dolphins
Dan Tomaro: Dolphins
Ben Rolfe: Dolphins
PFN’s picks and predictions for all Week 1 games are available here.