The 6-3 Miami Dolphins will exit their Week 10 bye the same way as they entered it: As the AFC’s No. 4.
While the Buffalo Bills (5-4), New York Jets (4-4), and New England Patriots (2-7) can all gain ground on the Dolphins in the AFC East, none can catch Miami this weekend.
What’s more, the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) would still own the tiebreaker for the No. 3 seed over the Dolphins even with a loss to the 49ers (by virtue of a massive discrepancy between the two teams in strength of victory.
However, that’s not to say that this weekend’s games have no meaning for the Dolphins. Just the opposite. The following outcomes to the 13 remaining games of Week 10 would improve the Dolphins’ playoff prospects.
Beneficial NFL Week 10 Outcomes for Miami Dolphins
Indianapolis Colts (4-5) vs. New England Patriots (2-7)
While it’s rare for any team to root for a division rival, it would help the Dolphins more than it would hurt if the Patriots beat the Colts.
New England isn’t catching Miami in the division, so the benefits of the two-win boost to the Dolphins’ strength of victory supersedes the ground surrendered in the division.
Cleveland Browns (5-3) vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
The Dolphins’ easiest path to the Super Bowl is if there’s no path at all off Hard Rock Stadium property.
While the 1 seed became a lot less likely with their Week 9 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, it’s still in the realm of possibility.
A Browns win would drop the Ravens into a tie with the Dolphins in the loss column.
Houston Texas (4-4) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)
With Joe Burrow healthy again, the Bengals are back and are perhaps the most dangerous team in the AFC.
But for the Bengals to reach their third straight AFC Championship Game, they have to make the playoffs. And after a slow start, that’s no sure thing for Cincinnati. A loss Sunday could drop the Bengals all the way down to the conference’s 11 seed — and make them less of a threat to the Dolphins.
San Francisco 49ers (5-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)
There’s no benefit to the Dolphins to a 49ers loss. There’s an enormous benefit to a San Francisco win.
The Jaguars, currently a half-game up on the Dolphins in the conference, have a relatively easy remaining slate. The Niners are one of just four remaining Jacksonville opponents over .500, so the Dolphins will need every Jags loss they can get the rest of the way.
New Orleans Saints (5-4) vs. Minnesota Vikings (5-4)
There’s zero competitive interest in this game for Miami. But it’s always fun for Dolphins fans to root against Brian Flores.
Green Bay Packers (3-5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
The advanced stats say that the Steelers are not a very good team. But they do have an excellent coach in Mike Tomlin, and would somehow have the same record as the Dolphins with a win over the Packers.
MORE: When Was the Last Time the Pittsburgh Steelers Had a Losing Season?
Break out the cheeseheads, Miami fans.
Tennessee Titans (3-5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
The only way a Titans win would hurt the Dolphins is if they somehow surge back into Wild Card contention and Miami surrenders first place in the AFC East. Both happening are quite unlikely — so go Will Levis.
Atlanta Falcons (4-5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-8)
Kyler Murray’s return won’t help or hurt the Dolphins’ playoff chances. But it absolutely could hurt the Cardinals’ chances at the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Detroit Lions (6-2) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (4-4)
Since the Dolphins are a game and a half up on the Chargers and own the head-to-head, it’s probably more beneficial for Miami that L.A. wins than it loses, given the Dolphins’ anemic strength of schedule (.436) and strength of victory (.275).
Also, the Chargers beating the Lions would finally give the Dolphins a win over a team over .500.
New York Giants (2.7) vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-3)
The only way the Dolphins can benefit from this game is if the Cowboys beat the Giants (they will, considering it’s Dak Prescott vs. Tommy DeVito) and Miami beats Dallas on Christmas Eve.
Washington Commanders (4-5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (5-3)
The Dolphins visit the Commanders in Week 13, and so a Washington win would be another SOS and SOV builder.
New York Jets (4-4) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (4-5)
The Dolphins play these teams three times over the next five weeks, beginning with a home date with the Raiders in Week 11.
MORE: Miami Dolphins Schedule 2023
But since the Dolphins play New York twice, and the Jets aren’t a real threat to make the playoffs with Zach Wilson as their quarterback, for once, it’s OK to join in the J-E-T-S chants, Dolphins fans.
Denver Broncos (3-5) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-4)
The Bills are the only real threat to the Dolphins in the division, so a fourth Buffalo loss in six games would really clear the way for Miami’s first AFC East title since 2008.
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