The Miami Dolphins Should Probably Trade Their First-Round Pick (Again)

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — How long has it been since the Miami Dolphins have had a pick in the first round of the NFL Draft?

Their most recent first-rounder — Jaelan Phillips — is eligible for a contract extension this offseason.

The Mike McDaniel Era has made for some truly boring draft weekends, since their last three first-rounders have gone to the Kansas City Chiefs (for Tyreek Hill), the Denver Broncos (for Bradley Chubb), and the National Football League (for tampering).

So imagine our surprise last week when Dolphins GM Chris Grier responded thusly when PFN asked him if he definitely plans to make a pick in the first round (21st overall, as of now) this year:

“Can’t promise anything, but we’ll see,” Grier said playfully. “We’ve had a couple draft meetings with the scouts, and they’ll be coming back in February, and we’ll hit that hard before we go to Indianapolis.

“But also if there’s an opportunity that we feel can help our roster and it makes sense and most of the guys we’ve traded for have been in an age bracket, too, that makes sense for us to do that if you’re going to move a pick like that. So we’re always open to listening if people want to contact us, as well. I know [McDaniel] wants a first-round pick bad.”

Miami Dolphins’ NFL Draft Strategy

If Grier uses that first-round pick on a veteran, it’ll be a mistake. At an estimated $43 million over the projected 2024 salary cap, the Dolphins simply cannot afford to absorb another big salary.

Plus they already have what’s expected to be one of the 10 oldest rosters in football in 2024. Considering how badly they broke down physically last year, adding even more age seems reckless.

But there’s a compelling, completely different argument for Grier to deal that first-rounder at some point in the next three months:

They need more picks, both this year and next.

The Dolphins currently have just two selections in the top 150 of what’s shaping up to be a very shallow draft.

“Nobody’s talking about it because few truly track later round prospects but combination of NIL money, widespread use of extra Covid year, & smallest junior class in over a decade completely wiped out depth of this year’s #NFL Draft,” Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy wrote on X Sunday.

“By late December, our @seniorbowl board fell apart in Rounds 5-7. Teams will either be trading away Day 3 picks to preserve value or selecting players from their free agent side board in April.”

That’s an ugly reality for a Dolphins team that is projected to have one pick in the fifth round, two picks in the sixth, and one in the seventh this April.

And barring a surprise gift from the NFL, that’ll be it. Projections have the Dolphins again getting shut out of the compensatory pick bonanza. Due to their largesse in free agency, the Dolphins haven’t had a comp pick since 2020.

So trading back from 21 to, say, 35, could net the Dolphins an additional third-rounder and still put them in prime position to get a very good offensive lineman.

Eight offensive tackles rank in the top 60 in the latest PFN Big Board, and other scouting outlets have as many as 12 with first or second-round grades.

MORE: Miami Dolphins 2024 Mock Draft

But there’s another, even more forward-looking reason for the Dolphins to move out of the first round:

They should load up on assets for the 2025 draft in case they have to move up for a quarterback.

Tua Tagovailoa is entering the final year of his rookie deal, and while the Dolphins have said the right things about an extension, there’s a real chance that they’ll want to move on if 2024 ends the same disappointing way that 2023 did.

Would they consider parting with a late first-round pick for two 2s — one in 2024, and another in 2025 — as a quarterback hedge? It’s a conversation they’ll surely have between now and April.

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