Green Bay Packers RB MarShawn Lloyd is joining an offense that is very much headed in the right direction, but also one that got younger at the RB1 position this offseason by way of Josh Jacobs.
How should fantasy football managers evaluate this backfield – can Lloyd hold standalone value or is he simply of interest if Jacobs were to miss time?
MarShawn Lloyd’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Every year, we’re reminded that outside of the elite, the running back position is impacted greatly by situation. The strong fantasy assets are high-end talents in the perfect setting, while there is a massive tier of backs who have either above-average talent OR a plus-scoring environment.
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The Packers certainly proved themselves as one of the most improved offenses last season, and the expectation is for that growth to continue for the foreseeable future. Which begs the question – where does Lloyd check in on the talent side of things?
Marshawn Lloyd is finally at #Packers training camp…
Reminder of what this man can do with the ball 😲
— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) July 31, 2024
Derek Tate handled scouting duties for him entering the NFL draft and loved what he saw from a running back whose collegiate career started with a shredded knee in 2020. Here are some of the notes in Tate’s report:
- Exceptional elusiveness; lateral agility is of top-shelf quality with the ability to change direction at the moment of truth by dropping his weight to stop on a dime, then sticking his foot in the ground to reaccelerate/bursting through the contact of an over-pursuing defender after making a sharp cut.
- Burst/acceleration jumps off the tape; changes tempos effectively when pressing the hole before hitting the gas pedal to explode through openings between the tackles.
- Consistently has the juice to take the edge even when out-leveraged by defenders when bouncing runs outside.
- Patience, vision, and foot quickness to operate effectively in gap or zone schemes.
Believe in Jordan Love, but not in a hurry to pay for him or roll the dice on this muddy receiver situation? Lloyd is the player for you.
From a macro standpoint, betting against Jacobs is plenty reasonable. Only Derrick Henry averages more touches per game since he entered the NFL (Jacobs: 20.6) and he’s coming off the worst season of his career (3.5 yards per carry and a touchdown once every 38.8 rushes).
From a micro standpoint, the rising tide of Love can lift all boats.
Love Production Splits (playoffs included)
- Weeks 1-11: 6.9 yards/attempt, 83.8 Passer Rating
- Rest of season: 7.8 yards/attempt, 112.5 Passer Rating
Packer RB Splits (playoffs included)
- Weeks 1-11: 1.02 yards per carry before contact (27th)
- Rest of season: 1.48 yards per carry before contact (9th)
It should be no surprise that improved play under center positively impacts the running back position, but that disparity is an eye-opening one. Lloyd may not open the season with a Flex-worthy role, but stay patient with him and I think you’ll be rewarded handsomely.
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Lloyd is currently being drafted in the Round 13-14 range alongside names like Antonio Gibson, Kendre Miller, and Ty Chandler. I’d make the argument that he holds both a greater floor and more contingent upside than any of those secondary backs in average-at-best offensive environments.
Keep tabs on his various bumps and bruises, but this is a backfield ripe for the picking in my opinion and this price tag carries all reward with no real risk.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Analysis for MarShawn Lloyd
Coaches could be lying (shocking, I know!), but it does appear the Packers intend to utilize Lloyd right away. I have him projected for only a 19.5% opportunity share, but that includes 8% for Dillon. It’s entirely possible Dillon is relegated to a seldom-used RB3 role, pushing Lloyd’s opportunity share over 25%.
The main reason fantasy managers are drafting Lloyd, though, is for his contingent upside. If Jacobs gets hurt, Lloyd appears to be the next man up. He would certainly be fantasy-relevant, albeit likely in a committee with Dillon.
There’s also the matter of Jacobs’ recent performance. Although the Packers gave Jacobs a nice contract, if he doesn’t perform well, I fully expect them to see what Lloyd has to offer.
Jacobs averaged 3.5 yards per carry last season and was woefully inefficient. Sure, the Las Vegas Raiders offense was bad, but Zamir White was more effective in his four games as a starter under the same conditions. What if Jacobs just isn’t that good?
The median outcome in projections for Lloyd doesn’t indicate a player who will matter in fantasy. However, circumstances change and can change quickly.
Lloyd’s RB48 ADP is very palatable. It is possible his ADP dips a bit due to the hamstring strain he sustained in the Packers’ first preseason game. However, the report is that the injury is minor and Lloyd is not at risk of missing Week 1. Therefore, although I wouldn’t call Lloyd someone I’m aggressively targeting, I certainly want to get him on a couple of teams.