While explosive, consistency has plagued Green Bay Packers WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling throughout his career, leading many to describe him as a boom-or-bust fantasy football asset. As he enters the 2021 NFL season with the WR2 role on the team anyone’s to win, what is the fantasy outlook for Valdes-Scantling, and should you target him at his current ADP?
Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s fantasy outlook for 2021
When he and Aaron Rodgers are on the same page, there are times where MVS looks like a cheat code on the football field — especially with his deep targets. However, because he is so big-play dependent, knowing when to start Valdes-Scantling in fantasy has been a nightmare.
Last season, he had four games with 19+ fantasy points but also had seven games with 19 or fewer receiving yards. Nevertheless, consistency will never be the key to your game when you lead the NFL in aDOT (average depth of target) at 17.7 (min. 30 targets).Â
Playing in 16 games, MVS recorded 33 receptions on 63 targets (52.4%) for 690 yards and 6 touchdowns. These set new career-highs in yards, yards per reception (20.9), and scores. The issue for Valdes-Scantling and what makes you hang your head are the drops.
Of those same players to see at least 30 targets, Valdes-Scantling recorded 7 drops (15.6%), the third-highest total. For a player who needs to make every target count for fantasy, these were massive blows to his consistency and upside.
Valdes-Scantling ended 2020 as the WR55 while averaging 8.6 points per game (72nd). Yet, he was also 14th in fantasy points per target (2.19) and was the WR1 in points per reception at 4.18 (min 30 targets). If you managed to start him on the right weeks, you likely won your matchup. Unfortunately, knowing when to plug MVS in is difficult, as he has finished as a WR2 or better in just 18% of games.
Fantasy projection
At least by this point, we have a relatively clear idea of what the Packers want to do under head coach Matt LaFleur.Â
As an offense, the Packers ran 62.8 plays per game last year (63.2 in 2019). Furthermore, they passed on 56.2% of the plays (59.8% in 2019). We also know the pecking order for those targets. Davante Adams will handle around 33% of the team targets and over 50% of the WRs targets. Aaron Jones, meanwhile, will be in the 12% share range. The big question is, particularly at receiver, who is next?
Despite a gaping hole for someone to take over, no one has established themselves as a legitimate WR2 on the Packers. Allen Lazard had a mini-breakout but has struggled ever since. There is also Equanimeous St. Brown, a returning Devin Funchess (2020 opt-out), and rookie Amari Rodgers.Â
While not the big-name many Packers fans wanted, the team did like the former Clemson prospect enough to select him with the No. 85 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Rodgers will operate out of the slot and could end up being a contributor early on. Still, he poses no threat to Valdes-Scantling.Â
Based on early projections with Aaron Rodgers under center, Valdes-Scantling could see around 60-65 targets with 33-35 receptions for 630 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s ADP
According to Sleeper, Valdes-Scantling has an ADP of 225.2 in PPR formats. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), he has a 200.46 ADP.
Should you draft Marquez Valdes-Scantling in 2021 for fantasy?
Outside of best ball formats, I would not select Valdes-Scantling in 2021 for fantasy. It is unlikely you will ever know when the right week is to start him. He would only add more volatility to your starting lineup.Â
With MVS, it seems to be a coin flip as to whether or not we are getting the version that had 149 yards and a TD in Week 10 or the Week 13 side that scored -0.4 fantasy points. Therefore, I would look elsewhere for fantasy in 2021.
