Houston Texans RB Marlon Mack projects to be a mid-round pick as his 2022 fantasy football outlook could be that of a starter or a third-string player. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Mack’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Editor’s Update (8/30): Per league sources, the Houston Texans have cut Marlon Mack as they trim their roster to 53 players. Until he re-signs with a team, if he does, Mack should not be drafted for fantasy football.
Marlon Mack fantasy outlook for 2022
There are some teams or positional groups fantasy managers avoid like the plague. A prime example of this is the New England Patriots backfield, as it did nothing but frustrate people. Many are already taking the same approach to the Houston Texans’ backfield. With that said, there could be value if Mack rewinds the clock a few years.
Before the Colts had Jonathan Taylor, Mack was their go-to guy in the backfield. After rushing for over 900 yards with seven TDs in 2018, Mack set career-highs in 2019. Playing in 14 games (12 starts), Mack rushed for 1,091 yards and eight scores on 247 carries. He even added 14 receptions (17 targets), albeit for just 82 yards. Unfortunately for Mack, that was the last we saw of him as a starter as on his fourth carry of 2020, he tore his Achilles.
Mack did return in 2021 but was neither the starter nor fully healthy. Appearing in just six games, Mack rushed 28 times for 101 yards. But honestly, the stats don’t matter. Mack was back out there and even gave hope to managers waiting on Cam Akers, who was dealing with the same injury.
Mack’s skills have been one of the talking points of the summer in Houston
Signing with the Texans during free agency, Mack has the opportunity to once again be a starting running back in the NFL. Head coach Lovie Smith has said they have a plan for the 26-year-old but tempered expectations by their comfort with the group as a whole.
“I know he’s fit in well with our group,” Smith said. “We feel like we have a plan for him, and we like the running back position, not just him.”
Smith is not the only coach to have mentioned Mack. Running backs coach Danny Barrett praised Mack during camp, noting he looks as he did back in 2019.
“He’s come in and done a good job,” Barrett said. “Since that first week, everything has been smooth sailing for him. And I think he’s gotten his confidence back to the level at which he was playing at prior to his injury. You can see the burst and the speed that shows up which he showed prior to the injury. So we’re looking forward to him coming back in the fall and making that room better.”
Mack’s upside for fantasy is limited by the team’s 2022 projection
This is not a team we expect to be good offensively or even defensively. Odds are Houston struggles to move the ball consistently, resulting in few goal-to-go opportunities.
For someone like Mack, who has never been a receiving weapon, that only further decreases his value. With that said, no depth chart is more wide open than the one in Houston. While it is expected to be a committee, Mack should have a role. However, it doesn’t look like it will be the role of a lead back.
How the Houston Texans depth chart impacts Marlon Mack’s fantasy projection for the season
Mack would be one of the better values right now if it wasn’t for the NFL draft. Houston was pegged as a landing spot for one of the incoming rookies, and they did just that, selecting Dameon Pierce out of Florida with the No. 107 overall pick.
Aside from Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III, Pierce might have the best chance to be a relevant RB in 2022.
The second pick of the fourth round, Pierce was the seventh RB off the board. He only went that late because of how Florida used — or should I say, misused — him. Pierce has the film of a lead back. He personified efficiency as a senior, recording 13 touchdowns on just 100 carries (5.7 ypc). Pierce also showed receiving upside, hauling in 36 receptions in his last two seasons as a Gator.
A two-year starter, Pierce has all the contact balance and power in his leg drive to break tackles as a violent finisher at the next level. He is a stocky player coming in at just over 5’9″ with 218 pounds of angry rushing. He doesn’t have breakaway speed (4.59 40-yard dash), but as a one-cut RB who will break tackles, Pierce will have value for fantasy.
How impressive has he been? Well, I’ll let his head coach tell you himself.
“We’ve seen everything you need to see from a good running back,” coach Lovie Smith said. “He can catch the ball. He can run in between tackles. He’ll make you miss in the open field. Pads down low, there’s a lot of things to like about Dameon.”
That’s not something you just throw out there all willy-nilly. If I were a betting man, which I am, Pierce looks to be the front-runner for the RB1 role in Houston, not Mack.
Rex Burkhead brings some value as a final pick in PPR leagues
Not to be forgotten is the do-it-all RB Rex Burkhead. He brought value in both the rushing and receiving game for the Patriots for multiple years and led the Texans last year. Sure, it was 122 carries for 427 yards and three touchdowns, but it was still the best on the team, even if the bar was absurdly low. Burkhead brings more value in PPR formats as he should be on the field in more passing situations, but it is very doubtful he becomes fantasy relevant.
Mack’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 165, Mack is coming off the boards as the RB51 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him towards the end of the 13th round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Mack is a bit lower as the RB55 but is slightly higher overall as the 138th-ranked player. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, I am slightly lower as Mack is my RB59 in my rankings and 173rd player overall. Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
Houston is unlikely to support multiple fantasy-relevant running backs due to the likelihood of negative game scripts. All signs point to Pierce being the more valuable RB that also carries a higher ceiling. He has moved up to my RB36 and is in the group of potential league-winning picks if he hits.
Adding further confirmation to the pecking order, Pierce didn’t even play in Week 2 of the preseason, as he got the “starter” treatment. It’s just as important to see who isn’t playing as it is to see who does. Mack, on the other hand, saw 14 snaps against the Rams. Pierce has all but locked up the starting job, relegating Mack to the RB2. Personally, I would pass on Mack in drafts and let someone else select him.
