After one week, Isaiah Likely is the highest-scoring tight end in fantasy football. While that obviously won’t hold, that doesn’t mean he can’t be a TE1 the rest of the way. Last week, it came at the expense of teammate Mark Andrews. Should fantasy managers expect a repeat in Week 2?
Which Tight End Should You Choose from Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely in Week 2?
To say Week 1 was rough for the tight end position would be putting it mildly. A grand total of five tight ends reached double-digit fantasy points. Of the top seven tight ends on the week, four of them were barely rostered/started. One of those guys was Likely.
The Ravens TE2 lapped the field, posting 26.1 fantasy points, 11.8 more than the second-highest scoring tight end on the week, Foster Moreau, who was started in exactly 0% of leagues. Unsurprisingly, Likely led the league in a whole host of relevant categories. His 12 targets, nine receptions, 111 yards, and one touchdown were all the best in the league. In fact, the next-highest yardage total was just 58.
While all of this was going on, the Ravens’ other tight end, the one who started in every fantasy league, was nowhere to be found. Andrews caught just two passes for 14 yards. He was outside the top 24 tight ends on the week.
Does this mean fantasy managers should vault the understudy over the lead man? The PFN Start/Sit Optimizer suggests we’re not quite ready to do that.
It’s not a huge difference, but Andrews is projected for 9.5 fantasy points compared to 8.7 from Likely. For those of you who rostered Andrews and were able to grab Likely off waivers, we are advising going back to the guy who has been an elite TE1 for the past half-decade … at least for one more week.
If Likely outscores Andrews again, or, rather, if he out-targets Andrews again to such a massive degree, then it may be time to re-evaluate. For now, though, it’s fair to chalk it up to the Chiefs making it a point to take Andrews out of the game and Lamar Jackson consistently throwing to the open man.
Andrews’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
Fantasy managers’ concern regarding Andrews this week should be the same as for any Raven. The Ravens are nine-point home favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders.
Isaiah Likely’s last 6 games:
➖26 Receptions
➖393 Yards
➖6 TD’sMark Andrews’ last 6 games:
➖25 Receptions
➖310 Yards
➖3 TD’sThis does NOT include the final game Mark Andrews played in 2023 (Week 11) when he had his devastating season ending injury (cracked fibula).… pic.twitter.com/9Kz9RsWJXw
— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) September 6, 2024
Jackson attempted 41 passes last week, as the Ravens were constantly in negative game script, trying to keep pace with the greatest quarterback of all time. This week, the Ravens are almost certainly going to experience positive game script. At worst, it should be neutral. That should allow them to feed Derrick Henry far more than they did last week, limiting the targets available for the pass-catchers.
There is good news, though. They can’t run every play. Last week, Andrews still ran 35 routes to Likely’s 26.
While the Raiders project to have a quality defense, I suspect the Ravens may make it a point to get Andrews involved, giving him a solid floor in Week 2.
Likely’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
We are going to find out this week if Likely has cemented himself as an every-week fantasy starter. The list of NFL teams to support two top-12 tight ends is short. In fact, to my knowledge, the only team to do it was the New England Patriots in 2011 and 2012 with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
Could the Ravens become the second this season? If it happens, my guess is it will be more because the rest of the tight ends disappoint rather than both Andrews and Likely produce at a very high level.
With that said, Likely is very clearly a talented player. He should be on fantasy rosters and was worth the FAAB you spent to acquire him.
Likely running 26 routes is nothing to scoff at. With the Ravens lacking a clear WR2 behind Zay Flowers, that third option in the passing game could certainly be Likely. The run-heavy Ravens offense isn’t going to support more than three fantasy-relevant pass-catchers, but Jackson is good enough to get that number to three.
Given the state of the tight end position, Likely is a top-12 option in Week 2.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Andrews and Likely
Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely: As good as the opener was on Thursday night, fantasy managers can’t help but be sidetracked by this tight end situation that is trending toward a battle.
Likely posted a 9-111-1 stat line against the Chiefs and missed another touchdown on the final play by less than an inch. The snaps (53-52 in favor of Andrews) and routes (38-35 Andrews) were illuminating, as they point to Todd Monken essentially admitting that two of his three most dangerous pass catchers are tight ends.
That’s the good for managers sweating Andrews’ (2-14-0 line at Kansas City) situation. He’s on the field and running routes in a potent offense. Great.
Not so great is his ability to get open.
Receptions per route run:
- 2021: 17.3%
- 2022: 16.7%
- 2023: 16.3%
- Week 1: 5.3%
No, I don’t think the rate he posted last week is going to stick, but it’s very possible that Andrews is turning into a version of George Kittle without the spike-game upside due to his threat for opportunities playing the same position.
I’m not buying the Week 11 cracked fibula as a limiting factor, and Andrews turned 29 years old seconds after the Week 1 loss ended, putting him on the back nine of the age curve but not exactly in a spot to occupy fantasy hospice.
That said, it’s clear that Likely has juice that Andrews does not. Heck, there might not be six tight ends in the league today that have that sort of explosive potential.
Last season, 24 tight ends averaged 20+ routes run per game. That’s a low bar to clear, and for his career, Likely is averaging 11.6 PPR points per game when reaching that threshold, which would have been good for TE8 in 2023.
I mentioned the Kittle comparison earlier, and I think the 49ers’ trio could give us a blueprint as to what to expect. And by “blueprint,” I mean a frustrating spot to be in for fantasy managers who thought they were avoiding a headache by selecting Andrews in the fourth round, 120+ picks ahead of Likely.
Last season, a year in which Brock Purdy posted one of the 10 most efficient quarterback seasons of all-time, the Deebo Samuel Sr./Brandon Aiyuk/George Kittle trio all reached double figures in PPR points just three times, the first occurrence coming in Week 10.
If you stole Likely late in drafts or splurged in FAAB, you’ve got an asset, but I’m not sure that either TE is going to be as consistent as Andrews was in years past.
I wish I had better news, but this is going to be a weekly headache.
I’d caution against rage-benching Andrews this week. The Raiders had the lowest opponent aDOT last season, and that might be the role Andrews is destined to fill, as his aDOT was 48.5% lower than Likely’s in the season opener. Given the varied skill sets, it seems fair to project something similar moving forward.