What should have been a straightforward situation with the Baltimore Ravens tight ends is an ever-evolving weekly puzzle. Seemingly being phased out of the offense, can fantasy football managers continue to start Mark Andrews? If not, does that necessarily make Isaiah Likely the answer?
Projecting Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely’s Fantasy Output in Week 4
The tight end position has never really been strong in fantasy, but it’s never been this bad. Through three weeks, here are some names you’ll find among the top 12 scorers at the position: Cole Kmet, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry, and Zach Ertz. The top 12 changes significantly based on one big game from one player because that’s really all it takes.
Likely remains the TE5 in total points, but it’s really his opening night explosion that’s carrying him. He scored 81% of his season total fantasy points in that game.
In Week 2, Andrews remained clearly ahead of Likely, running more routes and earning more targets. Everything changed in Week 3. The dramatic shift in usage cannot be ignored. This week, for the first time all season, the PFN Start/Sit Optimizer has Likely firmly ahead of Andrews, projected for 9.3 fantasy points against Andrews’ 7.6.
If you look at the sportsbook projections for both players, the gap is as small as ever. While Andrews is projected for four more yards than Likely, that likely has to do more with name value than anything else. Another week like last and that won’t be the case in Week 5.
I agree strongly with the optimizer. That’s not to say I’d be particularly excited about starting Likely. However, under absolutely no circumstances should fantasy managers be starting Andrews. Let’s get to why.
Andrews’ Week 4 Fantasy Outlook
It is not even a little bit of hyperbole to say Andrews’ fantasy outlook this week is the worst it has been his entire career. The once elite tight end might as well not even be on the field.
Last week, Andrews played a mere 34% of the snaps. In the unlikely event you did spot Andrews on your screen, odds are he wasn’t running a route. Andrews ran a total of five (yes, five) routes last week. This is a guy who historically sees at least seven targets per game. Even if Andrews had a 100% targets per route run rate, he literally did not run enough routes to get there.
In the history of fantasy football, I don’t think there has ever been a pass-catcher running this few routes on this many fantasy rosters. Of course, it’s only been one week.
I’ve seen enough. Andrews was featured on my cut list from this past week. If you want to give it one more week to see what happens, I get it. However, if Andrews once again plays fewer than 60% of the snaps and runs single-digit routes, I am ready to not only shut the door on Andrews this season but on him ever being a fantasy-relevant player again.
Forget starting Andrews — we are one week away from there being no reason to even roster him.
Likely’s Week 4 Fantasy Outlook
Likely was on the field far more than Andrews. He nearly doubled Andrews’ snap count. But the results were the same. Likely ran a total of four routes, which, as you might imagine is equally problematic.
Normally, after a game like this, you would get encouraging words from the head coach. Instead, John Harbaugh explained this was by design.
#Ravens HC John Harbaugh telling Mark Andrews managers that they’re in for a hellacious roller coaster
(Harbaugh mentioned earlier in the presser that to be able to run the ball when you want to, and do it out of big groups that protect the edges, that’s something that’s in our… pic.twitter.com/9XlTw3GwxK
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 23, 2024
The scary part for fantasy managers is … it worked. The Ravens came out blasting against the Cowboys, running the ball at will. They put up 28 points before the Cowboys could really blink.
The Ravens have always wanted to be a run-first team. With their scheme as effective as ever, why would anything be different against the Bills this week?
Likely is definitely a better option than Andrews, but I don’t know how fantasy managers can trust either in Week 4 lineups.