Isaiah Likely plummeted back down to earth after his overall TE1 Week 1 performance. While Mark Andrews ran more routes and was more involved, he still didn’t perform at the level fantasy football managers have come to expect. Which Baltimore Ravens TE is the better option in Week 3 lineups?
Projecting Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely’s Fantasy Output in Week 3
Production from tight ends has been nothing short of abysmal through the first two weeks of the season. Through two weeks, here are some names you’ll find among the top 12 scorers at the position: Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Zach Ertz, and Foster Moreau. Just how we drew it up, right?
Likely remains the overall TE1, his numbers carried by his opening night explosion. In Week 2, though, Andrews remained clearly ahead of Likely, running more routes and earning more targets. While this didn’t amount to much in the way of fantasy production, it’s certainly a relief for managers who drafted Andrews in the fourth or fifth round.
Nevertheless, the gap between Andrews and Likely is clearly lesser than before the season. The younger tight end is not going away.
The PFN Start/Sit Optimizer only has Andrews 0.8 fantasy points ahead of Likely for this week. That’s a negligible difference.
If you look at the sportsbook projections for both players, the small gap checks out. Andrews is only projected for eight more receiving yards than Likely. Heading into the season, fantasy managers expected that gap to be 30+ yards weekly.
I agree with everything the optimizer is saying. Both Andrews and Likely are worthwhile starts, but there is not a large gap between these two.
Andrews’ Week 3 Fantasy Outlook
Through two weeks, Andrews has earned just a 10% target share. That has to increase for him to remain a viable TE1 in fantasy.
In Week 1, the Ravens had to contend with a tough Kansas City Chiefs defense that has always been able to limit Andrews’ production. In Week 2, the offense largely sputtered against an underrated Las Vegas Raiders squad that was able to pull the upset.
This week, the Ravens face what should be a ferocious Dallas Cowboys pass rush. However, they did just allow the New Orleans Saints to drop 44 on them.
The concern I have for Week 3 is the Ravens’ offensive line. In an effort to support their weak line, the Ravens have been utilizing Andrews as a blocker far more than has been typical throughout his career.
Per @TruMediaSports, Mark Andrews has already matched his total number of pass-blocking reps from 2023 in just two games in 2024.
Andrews has been used as a pass blocker on 10% of Lamar Jackson dropbacks in 2024. He had never had a rate above 2% in a previous season.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 20, 2024
Although this hasn’t resulted in Likely running more routes than Andrews, that’s still 8% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks that Andrews has no chance of catching a pass on.
Even so, it’s highly unlikely fantasy managers who drafted Andrews have a superior option. It’s still very early in the season, and Andrews is a talented player. That talent should shine through eventually.
Likely’s Week 3 Fantasy Outlook
As concerning as Andrews’ route participation rate may be, it’s still 75%. Likely is only at 50%. The notion that Likely has overtaken Andrews is not supported by what we’re seeing on the field.
Now, that’s not to say fantasy managers should avoid Likely. The Cowboys and Ravens have one of the highest projected totals of the week. Both offenses need to rebound in a big way. Both teams need this win.
Likely is the third-best pass-catcher on the Ravens behind Andrews and Zay Flowers. Despite wanting to be a run-heavy team, Jackson has attempted 75 passes through the first two weeks.
The Cowboys should be able to force the Ravens to run the ball. However, there is a chance Derrick Henry runs wild on them, similar to what Alvin Kamara did last week (20 carries for 115 yards and three touchdowns).
With that said, so many of the top tight ends are underperforming. Through two weeks, the only two reliable options have been Trey McBride and Brock Bowers. If you have Likely, he’s still worth starting as a back-end TE1.