Green Bay Packers TE Luke Musgrave was a second-round pick in 2023 and caught nearly 74% of his targets during his rookie season. There is no shortage of target competition in this upward-trending offense – is Musgrave the best way for fantasy football managers to invest at a cheap level in Jordan Love’s growth?
Should You Select Luke Musgrave at His Current ADP?
ADP:Â 164th Overall (TE17)
If you’re waiting to address the TE position, betting on what should be a top-10 scoring offense that is void of a proven entity as far as pass catchers go is the exact profile you’re looking for. At the end of drafts, Hunter Henry and Pat Freiermuth are being drafted.
They have more production on their resumes, but they are stuck in offenses that will have to overachieve to be league-average.
Cole Kmet is another name in this range and while his offense is trending in the same direction as Musgrave’s, his target competition is far stiffer and his quarterback less proven.
The top tier or two at the position is as impressive as it’s been in recent memory. The elite options aren’t cheap, but they do come with a ceiling/floor combination that simply isn’t available to the options further down the board.
It’s a bold move to completely fade the tight end position due to the increased depth after numerous young options burst onto the scene in 2023, but if your roster takes that shape, Musgrave is the type of tight end I’d gamble on to open the season.
Musgrave’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Is Green Bay’s greatest strength a fantasy weakness?
Their depth of talent among their pass catchers is a bear for opposing defenses, and that is great for their win equity, but the fact that the targets can go to a handful of options makes our job increasingly difficult.
Jayden Reed established himself as a budding star last season with Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks all showing plenty of promise. Add in the fact that Musgrave has another second-year tight end in Tucker Kraft to contend with, and there’s a reason that he’s not routinely being drafted.
Watching some Packers. LaFleur easily one of my favorite play-callers. Sick design here for Luke Musgrave, who was used on screens and deep crossing routes as a rookie. All these young TEs and WRs serve a nice role. pic.twitter.com/foUNkiAVvX
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks)
Not so fast.
During their rookie seasons, this tight-end duo hauled in 75.6% of their targets, lending me confidence that Love likes having a safety blanket by way of the chain-moving 250+ pound tight end.
Kraft tore his pectoral muscle in early May due to a bench-pressing mishap and while he is expected to be ready for the season, the window is open for Musgrave to assume the lead TE role.
As promising as the Packer nucleus is, without a bonafide alpha target earner, there are targets to be earned.
Green Bay ranked 10th in pass rate over expectation in 2023 (ahead of a Baltimore Ravens offense led by the reigning MVP and a Miami Dolphins offense that housed the NFL’s top passer in terms of yardage), and that number is more likely to improve than decline as Love enters this season with expectations that didn’t exist 12 months ago.
