The Detroit Lions will travel to take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 9. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 28, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for the full slate of our picks and predictions, head to our Early Week 9 Picks and Predictions.
Los Angeles Rams (-1, 48) at Seattle Seahawks
One week can change everything in the NFL, and these two teams epitomize that perfectly. Entering last week, we were looking at 15 to 20 spots separating these teams in our PR+ standings, and now they are separated by just two.
The Seahawks have been bullies against bad teams but have struggled against more established opposition. The win over the Broncos and the loss to the Giants are the outliers in that.
The Rams are a different beast entirely when they have Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back. The defense is not good and will likely be below average all season. However, the offense at full strength can hang with opponents, which is exciting. Los Angeles has also played the fourth-hardest schedule to this point, so their 3-4 record could be a little misleading.
I still find it hard to trust this Rams team going outside to Seattle with this defense. They are 5-3 in Seattle under Sean McVay but did so with stronger defensive units than this. The Rams might end up being the better team this season, but for now, it’s hard to fully trust them after just one week of offensive output.
Prediction: Rams 23, Seahawks 20
Pick: Pass
Rams at Seahawks Game Insights
Los Angeles Rams
Team: Over their past three games, the Rams have coveted seven-of-nine red zone drives into touchdowns (prior: seven-of-17).
QB: Matthew Stafford posted his best EPA against zone in a game since Week 6, 2021 (it was the first time he posted a positive number since Week 1, the last time he had both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua)
Offense: In the return of their two star receivers, the Rams operated at their slowest pace of the season and it worked – they averaged a season-best 5.8 yards per play.
Defense: In Weeks 5-8, Los Angeles has allowed opponents to convert just 20% of third downs (Weeks 1-4: 50%).
Fantasy: Puka Nacua dropped the first target on Thursday night, but in his return to action, three of Stafford’s first four passes were directed toward the second-year weapon.
Betting: The Rams kicked off Week 8 on Thursday night – they are 6-15-1 ATS (28.6%) since the beginning of 2019 when playing on extended rest (only the Jets and Texans have been worse in such spots over that stretch). They’ve failed to cover each of their past eight games (average cover margin: -6.1 points)
Seattle Seahawks
Team: This is Seattle’s fourth home game in a five-game stretch—they’ve lost the first three and been outscored 96-54 in those contests (Giants, 49ers, and Bills).
QB: In the first four weeks this season, Geno Smith completed 81% of his out-of-pocket throws. Over the past four weeks, that rate has regressed in a major way: 35.7%.
Offense: Seattle went three-and-out on 55.6% of their drives against the Bills, their second-highest rate since November 1, 2021 (Week 9, 2023, at Ravens).
Defense: In Weeks 1-3, the Seahawks took advantage of their schedule (DEN, NE, and MIA) and allowed just 1.03 points per drive. In their five games since (DET, NYG, SF, ATL, and BUF), they are allowing 2.61 points per drive (up 153.4%)
Fantasy: Kenneth Walker III is already three receptions away from setting a career-high for a season – he has over seven PPR points as a pass catcher in all five of his games back from injury.
Betting: The Seahawks are a league-worst 14-25-1 ATS (35.9%) after Halloween since 2020 (the Rams are 23-19-1 ATS over that stretch, eighth-best).
Betting: Since 2021, the Seahawks are just 3-7 ATS in home divisional games (unders are 7-3 in those games).
